NFL Week 17 Preview, DraftKings & Fanduel

NFL Week 17 Preview, DraftKings & Fanduel

Welcome to Week 17 of the NFL! Last week’s article got a nice reaction (thanks to all who reached out) so I will continue with the “high, medium, low” column. That means we go position by position to break down different salary ranges, providing you flexibility in your lineups.

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Projections | Game Logs | Scoring Calendar | Points Allowed by Position

Quarterbacks

Andrew Luck presents an interesting scenario for this final week of the season. No QB has scored more DraftKings points in the last four weeks than Luck (23.60). I wonder what his ownership will be on a week where the five premier QB options (not including Luck) are all in ideal matchups. Many owners may opt to avoid Luck as Jacksonville has allowed the 4th fewest DraftKings points to opposing QBs. However, when you look deeper, there may be other reasons for that stat. For example, the opponents of the Jags have only thrown the ball 34 times per game, the 7th fewest attempts in the league. The reason might be because the Jaguars are usually losing by enough for their opponents to stop throwing the ball. Indy is currently a 4.5 point favorite which could indicate that this game stays close to the end.

I’m buying on Matthew Stafford who checks in at a reasonable $6,000 on DraftKings. You already know how often the Lions throw the ball on the offense (nearly 37 times a game) and this is an excellent matchup with the woeful Packers defense. Green Bay is allowing 22.9 DraftKings PPG to opposing QBs in the last four weeks, which would be worse than the worst season average. In their first meeting this season, Stafford threw for 385 yards and three TDs, worth 30.5 DK points for his owners. That was Stafford’s best game of the season.

If you’re willing to take on more risk, Blake Bortles is probably your guy. It’s been a volatile season for Bortles, but he has tapped into some stellar upside. Bortles has scored at least 22 DraftKings points on five separate occasions this season. That’s as many as Russell Wilson, Marcus Mariota and Philip Rivers while more than Matt Stafford and Ben Roethilisberger to name a few. Bortles had it going last week with 325 yards through the air and 29.7 DraftKings points. In their only meeting this season, Brotles scored 25.88 DK points against Indy, his third best game of the season.

Running Backs

Keep an eye on the Steelers injury report. It’s possible Le’Veon Bell is a healthy scratch this week. That’s a shame considering he’s the best RB in the best possible matchup. Outside of him, there are a few other concerns at the top of the RB position. I obviously love LeSean McCoy who is averaging 28.8 DK PPG in the last four weeks, the third highest mark in the league. McCoy has seen incredible value from the 23 targets (21 catches) in that span. My concern is whether those targets will stay as the Bills start E.J. Manuel over Tyrod Taylor this week. Note: Le’Veon Bell will sit out this week. Feel free to fire up DeAngelo Williams. In the first two games of the season without Bell playing, Williams saw 26 and 32 carries, tacked up 237 yards and two TDs. That was worth 38.1 and 23.2 DK points.

While the Patriots have already clinched a first round BYE, no team in the AFC has wrapped up home field advantage. That means the Pats have plenty to play for on Sunday. With that being said, I am willing to fire up their workhorse LeGarrette Blount yet again this week. Blount has piled on a massive 17 TDs this season and should see plenty of work with the Pats now listed as a 9.5 point favorite. Blount is slightly dependent on the TD but with 17 of them, he’s tallied enough to pay for himself regularly. It was 15 weeks ago, but Blount shredded Miami in their first meeting this season, with a 29-123-1 line for 21.3 DK points.

The Bucs are expected to sit Doug Martin again this week which thrusts Jacquizz Rodgers back into the starting role. He saw 15 carries last week, which he turned into 63 yards and a TD for 15.8 DK points. Rodgers has been great with volume this season. He’s played four games where he’s seen at least 15 touches. In those games he’s never scored less than 14.8 DK points and is averaging 17.95 DK PPG. The Carolina defense is allowing 27.8 DK PPG to opposing RBs in the last month and Rodgers tallied 20.9 DK points in their only meeting this season.

Wide Receivers

Hello T.Y. Hilton. The 4th highest scoring WR in the last month is back at the friendly confines of Lucas Oil Stadium, where Hilton is four points better this season. Hilton is a burner with significant upside. He’s tallied 19+ DK points in seven of his last 13 games and is essentially a lock see double digit targets. We already talked about why we like Andrew Luck, so why not roster his #1 WR in the process?

Want to ride the Cameron Meredith train? I certainly will be. Meredith has scored 19.2, 22.4 and 31.5 DK points in the last three weeks. Only Jordy Nelson has scored more DK PPG in that span. He’s clearly earned a rapport with QB Matt Barkley, who has fired 33 passes in the direction of Meredith over that three game stretch while connecting on 24 of them. The Vikings defense is a pretty solid, but can be an absolute mess at times. This is literally a team that went rogue on their Head Coach’s defensive game plan last week. Meredith is trending upwards against a dysfunctional Minnesota defense with nothing to play for.

Four straight games with a touchdown for J.J. Nelson and five in that span. He’s risky, yes, but lots of upside at this price. He only saw two targets in Weeks 13 and 14 but hauled in a TD in both. They also used him as a sneaky rushing option as he snapped off a 56 yard TD. That’s pretty flukey, but the last two weeks are creating more confidence. Nelson has seen 18 targets in the last two weeks and racked up 170 yards in those contests. You couldn’t ask for a better matchup with L.A. who allows the 4th most points to opposing WRs.

Tight Ends

Sheesh, the tight end position is even thinner than usual. You probably realize that Travis Kelce is going to be one of the elite options after his monster 36 point game last week (11-160-1). I’m looking to pivot towards Greg Olsen in GPPs. Olsen has been a top TE but has underwhelmed most weeks as the Panthers have been brutal this year. Despite the struggles, Olsen has seen 28 targets in the last three weeks and scored 11.9, 14.5 and 12.7 DK points in the process. He’s had difficulty finding the endzone, but he will look to change that against Tampa Bay this week. Olsen shredded TB for 9-181 in their first meeting this season.

I like Charles Clay, but he comes with concerns as well. Obviously big changes for the Bills this week, dumping both Rex and Rob Ryan. Clay is in the midst of his best run of the season, scoring 14.2, 20.2 and 28.5 DK points in the last three weeks, hauling in four TDs in that stretch. Now, that was all under Tyrod Taylor. Now, admittedly this is a deep pull, big E.J. Manuel and Clay do have some type of chemistry. In the two games that Manuel started last season, he hit on 12 of 18 attempts. A $3,500 TE who is playing well in a good matchup is worth some investment.

Defense

A disappointing season for the Broncos is limping to the finish line. The Raiders on the other hand, are primed for a playoff run and lose their franchise QB. This is a rallying opportunity for the Raiders to make a statement against the Super Bowl Champs. I’m targeting the Oakland defense who hasn’t scored less than six DK points in their last seven games, while averaging 8.2 DK PPG in that span. The Broncos on the other hand are helping opposing defenses prosper right now. Those defenses have scored 10+ DK points in five of the last six, averaging 11.5 DK PPG in the span. These are two teams on completely different trajectories and the Raiders defense is going to have to do a helluva lot in this one.

NFL Week 17 Projections – DraftKings & Fanduel

NFL Week 17 Projections – DraftKings & Fanduel

Here are NFL Projections for Week 17! Below you will find both the online and downloadable versions of my NFL Projections. I would use these to projections to identify value play and those players who are in good matchups. These projections take will take into account three main factors: recent performance, matchup and Vegas Line. Those three factors lend themselves very well to fantasy scoring.

You can watch me build this spreadsheet here.

Glossary:

2x, 3x, 4x – The amount of fantasy points a player needs to score to reach 2x, 3x and 4x value on his salary.
DVP – The amount of fantasy points a defense allows to that specific position. (1.4 means they allow 1.4x the league average).
TmTot – The projected points a team will score according to the Las Vegas line.
AvgTmTot – The average projected points total for that team according to Las Vegas lines.
%2x, %3x and %4x – The liklihood that a player reaches those value milestones.
Mean – Average fantasy points scored by that player.
StdDev – The mathematical calculation for standard deviation.

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NFL Week 16 Preview, DraftKings & Fanduel

NFL Week 16 Preview, DraftKings & Fanduel

Welcome to Week 16 of the NFL! Last week’s article got a nice reaction (thanks to all who reached out) so I will continue with the “high, medium, low” column. That means we go position by position to break down different salary ranges, providing you flexibility in your lineups.

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Projections | Game Logs | Scoring Calendar | Points Allowed by Position

Quarterbacks

Drew Brees is in a really interesting spot. He’s one of the better options on the slate, but not without concerns. Let’s start with his recent history and Drees is averaging 22.6 DraftKings PPG in the last four weeks, which is the most of any QB. However, those four games have been wildly inconsistent scoring 36.5, 13, 7.5 and 33.4 DK points. He is at home this week, where we all know that Brees tends to thrive, but he’s facing a Tampa Bay team that he faced just two weeks ago. In that game, Brees was held to just 257 passing yards, with zero TDs and three picks. Brees is likely to be a top scoring QB when the week is over, but he’s certainly not a lock to get there.

Since Arizona’s bye week, they are allowing 21.1 DraftKings PPG. Compare that to the 14.1 DK PPG they allowed in the eight games before the week off. Clearly a defense trending in the wrong direction and this week they have a date with Russell Wilson. There’s not too much to say about Wilson that you don’t already know, he’s a dual threat who won’t score a ton of TDs but can rack up yards in a hurry. He’s coming off a solid 21.3 DraftKings point game where he completed 19 of 26 passes and added three TDs. Wilson is more of a game theory play this week as Arizona is indicated as the 9th best defense against QBs on DraftKings, but they are much worse if you look closer.

I’m wondering why Dak Prescott is still priced this low. The rookie QB has scored at least 18 DraftKings points in 11 of last 13 games which would be over 3x value again this week. In fact, if you use that magic number of 18 DraftKings points, no other player in the league has scored 18+ more often than Prescott (David Johnson and Andrew Luck are tied). Now Prescott is at home (where he’s four DK points better), in a good matchup as a significant favorite. I’m firing him up.

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Running Backs

Jeez, I know it’s a good matchup but you have to be a glutton for punishment to roster Todd Gurley this week. The underperforming RB gets a $2,000 price increase from last week to face the porous Niners defense. Don’t get me wrong, the Niners defense is brutal, but Gurley has been absolutely miserable for a long time. Remember when he burst on the scene last season and reeled off 566 yards in his first four games? Well in the 22 games since then, he’s broken 90 yards just ONCE! His value has mostly been saved by TDs, but even those have dried up, only scoring five times this year. This just feels like Fools Gold.

Here’s the list of most DraftKings points by running backs in the last four weeks:

  1. Le’Veon Bell
  2. LeSean McCoy
  3. David Johnson
  4. Ezekiel Elliott
  5. Devonta Freeman
  6. Jordan Howard

Howard is the name that sort of jumps off the page at me. I knew he’s been good, but he’s actually been great. Averaging 20.68 DraftKings points in the last month and has scored double digit points in ten of his last eleven games. Now he gets a home matchup (6 DK points better) against the team giving up the fourth most DraftKings points to opposing RBs. He’s not cheap, but he’s priced at the 9th most expensive RB when he will likely finish the week better than that.

Are you willing to forgive Kenneth Farrow? He fumbled twice and only gained 39 yards on 15 carries last week as a big chalk play. The saving grace is that he still received 15 carries which totals to 31 in his last two games and he’s caught eight balls in that span. Farrow dominated the RB snaps and there is no better matchup in the world than Cleveland.

Wide Receivers

Julian Edelman, I’m begging you. Please, please, please breakout this week! Edelman has been a target monster. He’s averaging 13.4 targets per game in the last five weeks which has translated to 17.6 DK PPG. He’s also racked up at least 73 receiving yards in each of those games. He’s done everything but find the endzone, a feat that he has only accomplished twice this season. It just feels like a matter of time before he has a massive game and it could be this week against the Jets. The Pats are 16.5 point favorites at last look and are a bottom ten defense in the league against opposing WRs.

Don’t forget that Alshon Jeffery is back after his four game suspension. In his first game back last week, he caught six of nine targets for 89 yards and a TD (20.9 DraftKings points). Alshon has been a solid contributor this season, and has seen at least 8 targets in every game since Week 6. The Bears are super thin at the WR position and he’s undoubtedly “the man”. It’s also worth noting that Jeffery has only played two games with QB Matt Barkley as the starter. He’s seen 20 targets in those two contests.

Oh here’s an interesting one. Anquan Boldin is 10th in the league in redzone targets, third in redzone receptions and third in redzone TDs. And he’s priced at $4,100 this week. Those stats are going to be valuable in a game that has the Lions as a seven point dog, which will likely point to them trailing and having to throw their way back into the game. He has not been a volume receiver, but he’s leveraging those valuable looks inside the 20.

Tight Ends

You may not realize this, but Jimmy Graham is TE3 this season in total points. Even with his two duds in the last two weeks, scoring 6.7 DK points total, he’s still averaging 12.7 DK PPG this season. His ranking might be more of an indication of how bad this posiiton has been this year as opposed to his performance, but either way it’s notable. He’s found double-digit scoring in eight of his last 12, which is a feat that few of his peers can boast. This is a brutal matchup, but where else are you going to go? Graham gets a discount, is at home on a team that’s a favorite. At this thin position, that’s doing pretty well.

Okay, there is somewhere else you can go and that’s Kyle Rudolph. He’s the more solid, consistent option who has earned 40 targets in the last four weeks. He’s converted on 27 of them, averaging 14.9 DraftKings points in the last month.  If you want redzone targets, Rudolph is your guy. He’s seen 23 such looks which is third most in the league of any position. If the Minnesota defense continues to play as bad as they have recently, the Vikings are going to need to throw their way to victory.

Defense

The Kansas City Chiefs are probably my favorite defense of the week. They’ve been great this season, scoring double digit fantasy points in nine of their last twelve games. They have a knack for finding the endzone, scoring four defensive TDs in their last four games. This week they draw the Denver Broncos at home, who are allowing opponent defenses to score 9 DK PPG this season, but 11.8 DK PPG in their last five weeks. It’s well documented how loud it will be at Arrowhead this week and the Chiefs thrive in their home stadium.

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NFL Week 16 Projections – DraftKings & Fanduel

NFL Week 16 Projections – DraftKings & Fanduel

Here are NFL Projections for Week 16! Below you will find both the online and downloadable versions of my NFL Projections. I would use these to projections to identify value play and those players who are in good matchups. These projections take will take into account three main factors: recent performance, matchup and Vegas Line. Those three factors lend themselves very well to fantasy scoring.

You can watch me build this spreadsheet here.

Glossary:

2x, 3x, 4x – The amount of fantasy points a player needs to score to reach 2x, 3x and 4x value on his salary.
DVP – The amount of fantasy points a defense allows to that specific position. (1.4 means they allow 1.4x the league average).
TmTot – The projected points a team will score according to the Las Vegas line.
AvgTmTot – The average projected points total for that team according to Las Vegas lines.
%2x, %3x and %4x – The liklihood that a player reaches those value milestones.
Mean – Average fantasy points scored by that player.
StdDev – The mathematical calculation for standard deviation.

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NFL Week 15 Preview, DraftKings & Fanduel

NFL Week 15 Preview, DraftKings & Fanduel


Welcome to Week 15 of the NFL! Last week’s article got a nice reaction (thanks to all who reached out) so I will continue with the “high, medium, low” column. That means we go position by position to break down different salary ranges, providing you flexibility in your lineups.

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Projections | Game Logs | Scoring Calendar | Points Allowed by Position

Quarterbacks

Matt Ryan, the chalk, checks in as one of the top QB options this week. Matt Ryan has cooled a bit from his torrid start but is still averaging 23.3 DraftKings PPG this season. You know his exquisite home record and this matchup with San Francisco is sublime. The Niners have allowed at least 20 DraftKings points to opposing QBs in six of their last eight games. Ryan has been rather pedestrian the last four weeks, but all of of his matchups have been against teams ranked in the top half of the league in defense against opposing QBs. As Ryan enters this week, expect a much better performance.

Derek Carr is coming off a miserable 4.98 DraftKings point game against Kansas City last Thursday night. Prior to that, he checked in with games of 20.8, 22.4 and 22.6 DK points. Outside of a few duds, Carr has been awesome this season. He’s 8th in the league in both passing yards and TDs. Vegas thinks this is going to be a shootout in San Diego. The Raiders are a three point favorite in a game with a 51 point total. That would project Oakland to score 26.75 points this week, one of the highest totals on the board.

If you’re looking for value, consider Trevor Siemian. He missed Week 13 with a foot injury, but book-ended that week with two solid performances. Week 12 was worth 32.02 DraftKings points and Week 14 was 20.36 against Tennessee. He tossed for at least 334 yards in both games. When the Broncos get down, they ask Siemian to throw the ball a ton (51 times last week). It’s reasonable to think Denver will need to score a lot of points to hang with New England this week. Quarterbacks have also done fairly well against the Pats this season, scoring the 11th most fantasy points.

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Running Backs

The running back position is an absolute powerhouse at the top. David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell are the pure studs on this slate, but for a little discount, you can get LeSean McCoy who has RB1 upside this week. McCoy has scored at least 20 DraftKings points in seven of his last ten and is averaging 28.1 DK PPG in his last three. McCoy is obviously an accomplished runner who gets the ideal matchup with Cleveland this week. What’s noteworthy is that McCoy has been heavily involved in the pass game the last two weeks. He’s caught 13 of his 14 targets which is making him a monster play on full PPR sites. If you like the home/road splits, McCoy is averaging 26.8 DK PPG at home and only 17 on the road this season.

Without having to share carries with Giovani Bernard, it’s the Jeremy Hill show in Cincy at this point. Hill has rushed 23 and 25 times in the last two weeks, with varying results. He was stuffed by Philadelphia for only 33 yards, but scored Cleveland for 111 yards. He did find the endzone in both games and should continue to see the goal-line work. Hill is in-line for another excellent game this week as the Steelers are allowing the third most fantasy points to opposing RBs. It’s going to be tough to find a guy who will see nearly 30 touches at this price.

Well, Kenneth Farrow is the beneficiary of an influx of opportunity. It’s likely that Farrow will take over the workload if (and when) Melvin Gordon is ruled out. Technically, Gordon has not been ruled out for this week, but it seems highly unlikely he suits up. Farrow was serviceable in relief of Gordon last week, gaining 55 yards on 16 carries. He also showed some nice hands, catching all six of his targets. I already mentioned this game with Oakland should provide fantasy fireworks. Expect Farrow to be heavily owned.

Wide Receivers

The top of the WR pool actually has some question marks. Antonio Brown in a tough matchup and he hasn’t been his WR1 self this month. Mike Evan in a great matchup but coming off two duds in a row. And Julio Jones in the world’s premier matchup but sat out last week and is highly questionable for this week. So what do you do? I think Evans is still the premier play, despite 17 total DraftKings points in the last two weeks. This guy is still in the midst of a monster season and he’s really the only option for the Bucs right now. Their pass catchers are essentially non-existent with the likes of Russell Shepard, Adam Humphries and Josh Huff. Dallas has been shredded lately by opposing WRs. In the last five weeks, they’ve allowed 43.76 DK PPG to that position, the third most in the league.

Remember when I said that Denver QB Trevor Siemian played well in weeks 12 and 14 (his last two appearances)? Well Emmanuel Sanders has been thriving as well. Sanders has actually averaged the most DraftKings PPG of any receiver in the last four weeks. In those two games with Siemian under center, Sanders has seen 24 total targets and eclipsed 100 yards in each contest. Those two games have produced 32.2 and 30 DraftKings points. When the Broncos get down to the redzone, they throw the rock. Both Sanders and teammate Demaryius Thomas are top 5 in redzone targets in the league.

It’s not pretty, but you have to consider Dorial Green-Beckham as a weekly flier. Since Week 11, DGB has seen 8, 10 and 10 targets which is significantly more than many of his peers in this price range. He did miss the game last week with an abdomen injury, but has been back at practice this week. Expect that to drive his ownership down in the 1-2% range. Baltimore is known for their stout defense, but has allowed the 7th most fantasy points to opposing WRs this season.

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce is the highest scoring TE over the last four weeks and he’s the 12th highest scoring player overall, ahead of both Jordy Nelson and Odell Beckham Jr. Kelce has turned in five of 18+ DraftKings points in his last seven. The scary part is that Kelce has not caught a TD since in the last six weeks. That means he probably hasn’t hit his ceiling yet! his four straight games of 100+ receiving yards has vaulted him up the TE ranks where he sits atop this week.

The always solid Kyle Rudolph checks in at $4,300 this week on DraftKings which is very reasonable. This guy has hit double digit DK points in three straight (15.4, 10.5 and 16) and four of five. His 30 total totals in the last three weeks is a big number for someone in this price range who has already found the endzone six times this season. Rudolph should find plenty of soft spots in this Indy defense that ranks in the bottom third against TEs.

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NFL Week 15 Projections – DraftKings & Fanduel

NFL Week 15 Projections – DraftKings & Fanduel

Here are NFL Projections for Week 15! Below you will find both the online and downloadable versions of my NFL Projections. I would use these to projections to identify value play and those players who are in good matchups. These projections take will take into account three main factors: recent performance, matchup and Vegas Line. Those three factors lend themselves very well to fantasy scoring.

You can watch me build this spreadsheet here.

Glossary:

2x, 3x, 4x – The amount of fantasy points a player needs to score to reach 2x, 3x and 4x value on his salary.
DVP – The amount of fantasy points a defense allows to that specific position. (1.4 means they allow 1.4x the league average).
TmTot – The projected points a team will score according to the Las Vegas line.
AvgTmTot – The average projected points total for that team according to Las Vegas lines.
%2x, %3x and %4x – The liklihood that a player reaches those value milestones.
Mean – Average fantasy points scored by that player.
StdDev – The mathematical calculation for standard deviation.

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