NFL Week 14 Preview – DraftKings & Fanduel

NFL Week 14 Preview – DraftKings & Fanduel

Welcome to Week 14 of the NFL! Last week’s article got a nice reaction (thanks to all who reached out) so I will continue with the “high, medium, low” column. That means we go position by position to break down different salary ranges, providing you flexibility in your lineups.

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Projections | Game Logs | Scoring Calendar | Points Allowed by Position

Quarterbacks

What are you going to do with Marcus Mariota? He’s been a fantasy stud this season and now quarterback has scored more fantasy points in the L4 weeks (24.25 DraftKings points). His ability to beat you through the air or on the ground is staggering and he’s scored 21+ DraftKings points in six of eight and he’s never scored fewer than 17.6 DK points in that span. So what’s the concern? Well, his matchup with Denver is absolutely dismal. They’ve allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs this season. The plus side is that the Denver D hasn’t been as nasty in the last three weeks, allowing an average of 15.3 DK points (which would still be a top ten defense). Also, the Titans are coming off a bye, so they should be well-prepared for this game. In fact, Vegas likes them as a one point favorite.

Kirk Cousins and the Philadelphia Eagles could not be trending in more opposite of directions. Cousins has been awesome for the Redskins and only Aaron Rodgers, Marcus Mariota and Andrew Luck have scored more DraftKings points in the last four weeks. He’s tallied multiple touchdowns in seven straight games and has only thrown for less than 260 yards ONCE this season. The Eagles, after a torrid start, have fallen flat on their faces. Through Week 7, the Eagles allowed just 10.8 DraftKings PPG to opposing QBs, the best mark in the league. Since then, that number has rocketed to 21.9 DK PPG, the 5th most in the league.

The Bills defense has been eerily similar to the Eagles defense in terms of DraftKings points allowed. In the same time spans, the Bills have gone from allowing 12.3 DK PPG (first seven weeks) to 22.7 DK PPG (since week 8). That would bode well for Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh offense this week. Big Ben has shown his potency, scoring 25+ DraftKings points in four of eleven contests this season. He’s struggled recently but this is the third lowest salary tag he’s had all season, making him an interesting buy low candidate.

Running Backs

Speaking of that Steelers offense, how good is Le’Veon Bell? Let me tell you, he’s REALLY GOOD. Here’s an awesome stat from our buddy Adam Pfeifer:

Wrap your head around that. Antonio Brown, one of the (if not the) best wide receiver in the league only has one more reception that Le’Veon Bell since Bell returned to the field. All those PPR points are just piling up PLUS this guy gets a ton of carries! Bell has carried the ball 28, 23 and 29 times in the last three weeks. When you add in his receptions, he’s averaging 32.6 touches per game in that span. It’s a killer combination to have a guy with that much skill and that much opportunity.

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If you want to ride the matchup only, the San Francisco 49ers are swiss cheese in run defense. I think most people realize that the Niners are bad against the run, but they don’t realize HOW bad they are. San Fran is allowing 27.5 DraftKings PPG to opposing RBs, which is 50% (!!) more than the league average (18.0). It gets worse for the Niners if you throw out the first two games of the season. From Week 3 to the present, they have actually allowed MORE points to RBs, to the tune of 30.9 DK PPG. All of this would lead towards firing up Matt Forte. The NYJ running back is very dependent on game flow which has bit him in the butt recently. When the Jets trail in games, they abandon the run very quickly. Luckily for Forte, Vegas thinks this is going to be a close game and Forte has thrived in this situation. In seven games where the Jets have been one point underdogs or better, Forte is averaging 20.2 DraftKings PPG. In the five games where the Jets have been bigger dogs (all three points or more), Forte averages just 8.86 DrafKings points. Vegas has New York as just a one point underdog in this game, so hopefully we see the “Good Forte”.

Lamar Miller is really interesting at his price. It’s been a down year for Miller but I am not sure that’s all his fault. He started the year running well, but couldn’t find the endzone to save his life. I’m willing to cut him some slack there since touchdowns are fairly random. Unfortunately in the last month, he’s laid three eggs which isn’t building any confidence with his owners. The good news is that he’s the cheapest he’s been all season long in this date with Indy. In Week 6 against the Colts, Miller broke off 149 yards and found the endzone twice, earning 35.8 DraftKings points. That was his best fantasy game of the season.

Wide Receivers

It’s your pick of all the WR studs at the top of the slate. There’s Mike Evans, Julio Jones and the man I am partial to… Odell Beckham Jr. Since Week 6, ODB is averaging 22.9 DraftKings PPG and has only scored fewer than 20 DK points in two of those games. He’s an absolute machine who gets a suspicious price decrease against the defense that allows the third most fantasy points to opposing WRs. This is arguably the hottest ODB has been all season, yet this is his lowest price tag of the year. Beckham has also thrived at home, averaging 23.1 DK PPG compared to just 15.6 DK PPG on the road.

Don’t forget about Jordy Nelson this week who has hauled in ten TDs and doesn’t look to be slowing down any time soon. He’s earned double-digit targets in four of five which has translated into big time fantasy points for his owners. Over the last four weeks, Nelson is averaging 22.8 DraftKings points per game, which is the second most in the league (Antonio Brown). The matchup with Seattle might scare off some owners, but it’s not as bad as it might appear. Since Seattle’s BYE week, they are allowing 23.5 DraftKings PPG to opposing WRs, which would make them an average defense in that respect.

In terms of value, it’s about Jamison Crowder. We’ve talked about the success of Kirk Cousins and Crowder has been one of the biggest beneficiaries. In terms of DraftKings points, Crowder has reached double-digits in all but one game this season. Since Week 7, Crowder has tallied at least 80 yards OR a touchdown in every single game. Finally and maybe more surprising, Crowder is 7th in the NFL in red zone targets.

Tight Ends

Jameis Winston has been impressive this season and Cameron Brate has been forming an excellent connection with his QB. Brate has caught a touchdown in four of his last six games and has only seen less than five targets in one game during that stretch. Brate has thrived at home, scoring 15 DK PPG in Tampa, while only scoring 7.6 DK PPG on the road. The positional matchup with New Orleans is average, but Vegas has posted a 51 point total on this game, the highest of the week.

In the last five weeks, Zach Ertz has scored 11+ DraftKings points on four occasions. With only two touchdown catches in that span, there might be some room for improvement there. Ertz has earned a whopping 32 targets in the last three weeks so his stock is certainly trending upwards. The Redskins are a bottom ten defense against TEs and this game has a healthy 47 point total so there should be plenty of points for both teams.

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NFL Week 14 Projections – DraftKings & Fanduel

NFL Week 14 Projections – DraftKings & Fanduel

Here are NFL Projections for Week 14! Below you will find both the online and downloadable versions of my NFL Projections. I would use these to projections to identify value play and those players who are in good matchups. These projections take will take into account three main factors: recent performance, matchup and Vegas Line. Those three factors lend themselves very well to fantasy scoring.

You can watch me build this spreadsheet here.

Glossary:

2x, 3x, 4x – The amount of fantasy points a player needs to score to reach 2x, 3x and 4x value on his salary.
DVP – The amount of fantasy points a defense allows to that specific position. (1.4 means they allow 1.4x the league average).
TmTot – The projected points a team will score according to the Las Vegas line.
AvgTmTot – The average projected points total for that team according to Las Vegas lines.
%2x, %3x and %4x – The liklihood that a player reaches those value milestones.
Mean – Average fantasy points scored by that player.
StdDev – The mathematical calculation for standard deviation.

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NFL Week 13 Preview – DraftKings & Fanduel

NFL Week 13 Preview – DraftKings & Fanduel

Welcome to Week 13 of the NFL! I wanted to mix it up this week and do a “high, medium, low” column. That means we go position by position to break down three different salary ranges, providing you flexibility in your lineups.

week13

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Projections | Game Logs | Scoring Calendar | Points Allowed by Position

Quarterbacks

Drew Brees checks off all the boxes this week. The #1 fantasy quarterback in the league gets to play at home where he is 10 (!!) fantasy points better than on the road. Brees averages 30.9 DraftKings PPG while in the friendly confines of the Superdome and only 20.4 DK PPG on the road. His consistency is admirable, throwing at least three TDs in five of six home games this season. Brees gets the dream matchup with Detroit who is allowing the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing QBs. Finally, the Saints are projected to score 29.25 points this week according to Vegas. That’s just 0.25 points behind New England, who has the highest projected total of the week.

How much punishment can you handle? If you can stomach it, consider Russell Wilson. Outside of his dud last week, Wilson was on cruise control, scoring 25.28, 29.52 and 26.26 DraftKings points in the three previous weeks. During that stretch, he was the 7th highest scoring player in the league and third highest QB. He’s just as likely to lay an egg as explode, but this is such a great matchup against Carolina. The Panthers defense is well-documented and they have allowed explosive games to opposing QBs. Carolina has allowed two of the six highest scoring games to QBs this season and they are the only team to allow multiple top-10 games. It’s also worth noting that Russell Wilson has been removed from the injury report this week for the first time all season.

Tyrod Taylor presents himself as an excellent value on this slate. He’s been extremely volatile this season, but his upside is irresistible. Taylor has scored at least 20 DraftKings points in five of his last ten games. His value is comes from his dual-threat and potent rushing attack. Taylor has rushed the ball at least seven times in five of the last six games. Oakland has allowed the 7th most DraftKings points to opposing QBs and this game has been assigned a massive 50 point total. Buffalo is projected to score 23.5 points which is one of their higher projections of the season. Assuming Sammy Watkins suits up again this week, Taylor gets the added weapon who has only suited up three times this season.

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Running Backs

The obvious answers are there are RB, but let’s look a little closer at Jordan Howard. Here’s a guy that rushed the ball 18 and 17 times in the last two weeks, even with the return of teammate Jeremy Langford. Obviously Howard is the lead back in Chicago and he’s paying off his fantasy owners. He’s scored double-digit DraftKings points in seven of his last eight games and has left some points on the board. Howard dropped a walk-in touchdown pass last week which would have made him one of the top scoring RBs of the week. Now he has a date with the atroctious Niners defense that has allowed the most DraftKings points to opposing RBs this season. The Bears are actually a small favorite in this game, making Howard a solid play in all formats.

I don’t like the timeshare in New Orleans with Mark Ingram and Tim Hightower, but I cannot resist. Ingram looks explosive every time he touches the ball and turned 14 carries into 146 yards last week against LA. He also found the endzone via the air, which is his second such score in four weeks. It looks like the RB touches will be split fairly evenly moving forward, but I am looking to get as much exposure as possible to this potential shootout in New Orleans this week. Vegas has stamped a 54 point total on this game, the highest of the week. Finally, Ingram sports an injury designation for his toe, which should continue to keep his ownership down this week. I’d deploy Ingram in GPPs only.

Sheesh, the Packers (outside of Rodgers) have been really bad this year. Despite that, James Starks is the lead back of an NFL team which makes him valuable. He earned 17 carries last week and found no room to run against a tough Philadelphia defense. Starks has no one pushing him in the backfield, so he should see the majority of the work again this week in a much better matchup with Houston. What’s even more noteworthy is Starks has caught five passes in each of the last two games which is making for a nice little floor on full-point PPR sites. It’s going to be hard to find a guy in this price range who will cross off both opportunity and matchup.

Wide Receivers

How can you avoid the pivot from the chalk to Odell Beckham Jr.? ODB has the “bad matchup” with Pittsburgh who has allowed the 5th fewest fantasy points to opposing WRs. Let me tell you right now, ODB is matchup proof so enjoy the lower than usual ownership. Since Week 6, only two WRs have averaged more fantasy points than Beckham and they are named Mike Evans and A.J. Green. Beckham has hauled in seven TDs in his last six games and is a lock for 10+ targets this week. Vegas is expecting a high scoring game, assigning this contest a 50 point total which is one of the highest on the board.

Donte Moncrief is a touchdown monster! He’s caught a TD in five of the six games he has played this season. Moncrief looked comfortable with QB Scott Tolzien, but don’t full yourself, it will be a big boost if Andrew Luck plays this week. Luck looks on pace to start against the Jets. Thanks to those TDs, Moncrief has a solid floor, scoring at least 13 DraftKings points in all but one game this season. This is the long week for Indy who played last Thursday and won’t suit up until Monday night, giving them plenty of time to prep for the Jets.

Marquess Wilson suits up against for the Bears, as this will be just the third time this season. The Bears are plagued by both injuries and dropped passes right now so they are begging for someone to step up and make plays. Wilson was just that guy in Week 12 as he converted 8 of 11 targets for 125 yards and a TD. That was good for 29.5 DraftKings points. Wilson earned an instant rapport with QB Matt Barkley who looked really good last week. Again, this matchup with San Francisco is a dream and Wilson is a psuedo #1 WR this week.

Tight Ends

I think Travis Kelce fits the mold as both the high and middle option here. The top end of the TE position is a wasteland of injuries and bad matchups. Kelce will be the chalk and for good reason. WR Jeremy Maclin hasn’t played the last three weeks for KC and it’s no coincidence that Kelce’s prodcution has starting to pick up in that same period. Specifically the last two games for Kelce, he has earned 9 and 15 (!!) targets which are two of his three highest totals this season. Even without scoring a TD, Kelce has earned 20.3 and 21.1 DraftKings points thanks to two separate 100 yard games. The Chiefs are going to have to pass the keep up with the high powered Atlanta offense, which should benefit Kelce. It’s worth noting that Maclin has been limited in practice this week and there’s a chance he suits up. It would only be a small downgrade to Kelce if that would occur.

Is there anything worse than the TE position? I don’t think so. If you are desparate, I’m looking at C.J. Fiedorowicz who has been solid as the Texans TE this season. He has the brutal Brock Osweiler throwing him passes, but he’s still turned in double digit DraftKings points in five of his last eight games. The idea here is similar to Kelce. It’s reasonable to think the Texans are going to have to throw a lot to hang with Green Bay and while that’s not ideal if you are a Texans fan, it’s certainly helpful if you are a Fiedorowicz backer.

Defense

A rookie QB against the Patriots? Yeah, good luck. Bill Belichick and his defense have feasted on first-year signal callers in his tenure. There have been 33 different rookie QBs to face NE under BB (since 2000) and their combined record is 7-26. Only one has thrown for more than 300 yards (Andrew Luck) and 24 have been held under 200 passing yards. Finding the endzone has been a tall task and all 33 QBs have combined for just 24 touchdowns. They’ve also added 31 interceptions and 13 fumbles. This is just a bad matchup for a QB with basically zero experience on an NFL field. The Pats are drooling right now.

The Redskins look like the punt play at defense this week. I’m not thrilled with their skill players on that side of the ball, but this matchup with Arizona has proven to be really good. Defenses have feasted on the Cardinals recently, averaged 13.8 DK PPG over the last five games. Going back even further, opponents have scored at least 10 DK points in six of the last night games against Arizona. Palmer is just turning the ball over at an insane rate right now. He’s thrown six interceptions and fumbled four times himself in just the last four weeks.

To gain access to the Pro Tools and research spreadsheets, check out our package options. Some even have a 7-Day Free Trial!

NFL Week 13 Projections – DraftKings & Fanduel

NFL Week 13 Projections – DraftKings & Fanduel

Here are NFL Projections for Week 13! Below you will find both the online and downloadable versions of my NFL Projections. I would use these to projections to identify value play and those players who are in good matchups. These projections take will take into account three main factors: recent performance, matchup and Vegas Line. Those three factors lend themselves very well to fantasy scoring.

You can watch me build this spreadsheet here.

Glossary:

2x, 3x, 4x – The amount of fantasy points a player needs to score to reach 2x, 3x and 4x value on his salary.
DVP – The amount of fantasy points a defense allows to that specific position. (1.4 means they allow 1.4x the league average).
TmTot – The projected points a team will score according to the Las Vegas line.
AvgTmTot – The average projected points total for that team according to Las Vegas lines.
%2x, %3x and %4x – The liklihood that a player reaches those value milestones.
Mean – Average fantasy points scored by that player.
StdDev – The mathematical calculation for standard deviation.

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[Video] NFL Week 12 Preview – DraftKings & Fanduel

[Video] NFL Week 12 Preview – DraftKings & Fanduel

Welcome to Week 12 of the NFL! We are finally starting to see some usable sample sizes and learning how coaches will be using their players in high leverage situations. Also the BYE weeks add an extra dynamic when it comes to roster construction and recency biases. I wanted to mix it up this week and do a video instead of an article. I hope you enjoy!

week12thumb

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Projections | Game Logs | Scoring Calendar | Points Allowed by Position

[ess_grid alias=”NFL Packages”]

 

To gain access to the Pro Tools and research spreadsheets, check out our package options. Some even have a 7-Day Free Trial!

NFL Week 12 Projections – DraftKings & Fanduel

NFL Week 12 Projections – DraftKings & Fanduel

Here are NFL Projections for Week 12! Below you will find both the online and downloadable versions of my NFL Projections. I would use these to projections to identify value play and those players who are in good matchups. These projections take will take into account three main factors: recent performance, matchup and Vegas Line. Those three factors lend themselves very well to fantasy scoring.

You can watch me build this spreadsheet here.

Glossary:

2x, 3x, 4x – The amount of fantasy points a player needs to score to reach 2x, 3x and 4x value on his salary.
DVP – The amount of fantasy points a defense allows to that specific position. (1.4 means they allow 1.4x the league average).
TmTot – The projected points a team will score according to the Las Vegas line.
AvgTmTot – The average projected points total for that team according to Las Vegas lines.
%2x, %3x and %4x – The liklihood that a player reaches those value milestones.
Mean – Average fantasy points scored by that player.
StdDev – The mathematical calculation for standard deviation.

[ess_grid alias=”NFL Packages”]