There is one very clear chalk play today and it’s Jose Fernandez. He’s the only pitcher on the slate with a 10+ K/9 over the last 30 days as he checks in with a 12.91 K/9 in that timeframe. Fernandez has been about as good as you could ask, sporting a 1.71 ERA over his last 11 starts. His xFIP is best on the slate and he will battle the Phillies tonight. Despite a recent resurgence, the Phils are still one of the worst offenses in the league this season. Only the Braves own a worse wOBA this season and the Phils were only able to manage one hit against Jacob deGrom yesterday.
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Mike Leake poses an interesting flier option tonight. He’s sporting a reasonable 3.29 ERA over his last 12 starts and has lasted at least six innings in 11 of those outings. He’s coming off a stellar 10 strikeout performance against the Brewers and will battle the Padres tonight. Both Milwaukee and San Diego are very similar right now, both ranking in the bottom third of the league when it comes to strikeout rate.
The Tigers offense is in a buy low opportunity tonight. While they have struggled over the past few weeks, they are still one of the most potent offenses in the league. They rank 8th in league in wOBA this season and are top ten in both runs and homers. Tonight they battle Ricky Nolasco who has the second worst xFIP on this slate in the last 30 days. His dismal K/9 (4.88) is going to put him in some tough spots tonight. Nolasco has only surrendered two or fewer earned runs once in the last seven starts.
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