We get just seven games today with a mixture of pitching, which could lead toward some higher scoring games. We get two aces at the top and then finding our second pitcher is going to be extremely important. Let’s dive in.
Pitchers
At the top we get Noah Syndergaard ($12,100) who has been simply incredible to start his 2016 campaign. Tonight he will face the Phillies, who have been one of the worst offensive teams in baseball this season. In each of his two outings this season, Syndergaard has reached 33 DraftKings points. The Phillies lineup allows for the opportunity to get to that point yet again. So far the Phillies are striking out in 21% of their at bats against right-handed pitchers, so this could be a good spot for Syndergaard. The total in this game is just seven with the Mets being a -175 favorite. At the top, Syndergaard is a very safe play against a dreadful Phillies lineup. In cash, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a ridiculous ownership on him.
If we don’t go with Syndergaard, we can expect Jose Fernandez to be the next option at $11,300 against the Nationals. The Nationals looked pretty good over the past weekend in Philly, but will get the electric Fernandez at home, where he has dominated. For his career, Fernandez has allowed a .221 wOBA at home while allowing a .282 wOBA on the road. Now both are below league average, but it does show how dominant he is at home. The Marlins are a -150 favorite in this game, so Vegas likes their odds for the win. Along with that, Fernandez has shown massive strikeout upside and the Nationals have a 22% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this season. You will save $800 if you go down to Fernandez, and it may be wise given the ridiculous ownership that I picture with Syndergaard. The total is low, the park factor plays well for Fernandez and the strikeout upside in there. I am fine with Fernandez in all formats and think he will be the lower owned of the two aces.
As we move on with our roster building, we will run into Carlos Rodon, who faces the Angels at home tonight. The Angels lineup hasn’t been that great this season and even Mike Trout is off to a slow start. Rodon has been stellar through his first two starts, striking out 12 batters in his first 13 innings. In both of his games, he has reached at least 19 DraftKings points. The Angels have not been a big strikeout team so far this season, but Rodon could strike out 10 at any moment. My biggest concern with Rodon is high wOBA split to right-handed hitters. Last year he allowed a .350 wOBA to righties and .247 to lefties. The Angels offense also gets a park upgrade going from L.A to Chicago. I think Rodon is more of a tournament play, but he has significant strikeout upside and gets a weaker lineup in the Angels.
At the bottom today, there are a few options that are somewhat interesting, but don’t have a favorite yet. Once lineups come out, I will update, but a lot will depend on who they have to face. It isn’t pretty at the bottom today.
STACKS
The Reds are an early favorite for my top stack today as they get Jordan Lyles, who has posted negative DraftKings points in his first two starts this season. Last season he allowed a .353 wOBA to lefties in a park that favors left-handed bats. That makes Joey Votto an elite play for me tonight. Along with Votto, I think Billy Hamilton and Jay Bruce could be good options. I am not sure Hamilton will draw the start here, though. I think Votto is cash safe with this being the highest total on the board and getting a nice match up against a weak right-handed pitcher.
Stacking the Giants/D’Backs game makes a lot of sense to me with the youth of Bradley and Jake Peavy not being good anymore. For the D’Backs, Goldschmidt and David Peralta are the top of the options. The D’Backs lineup may also feature Jake Lamb and Socrates Brito, who are fine in a stack. On the Giants end, if you don’t trust Bradley, all bats are in play. In his brief stint last year, Bradley actually struggled with right-handed hitters more than left-handed. It looks like there is a slight wind out to center, which may help the bats a little. Overall, I think more people will be in on the Reds bats than Giants, but they are both in decent spots.
I believe that the White Sox could be in an interesting spot for their power bats. Hector Santiago is a fly ball pitcher and that could bode well for Jose Abreu, Todd Frazier and Avisail Garcia in the middle of the order. On the road, Santiago watches his strikeout rate drop below 20%, so the strikeouts don’t concern me too much.Right-handed hitters posted a .323 wOBA against Santiago last season so they are in a good spot here. I think that this stack would go under owned in a match up that could see a few balls in the gaps and over the fence.
Home run of the day
Todd Frazier
As lineups get released, I will tweet out my top plays and value!