Some really compelling pitching options at the top tonight, but all of them have a flaw. You have Jose Fernandez, but he’s on the road. You have Jon Lester, but against the Pirates who kill LHP. You have Jacob DeGrom, but he’s at Coors Field. There’s Felix Hernandez ($11,300) who hasn’t had nearly the strikeout stuff that we’ve seen in his career, but despite that, he makes for one of the more optimistic options on the slate. Hernandez has not struck out more than four batters in any of his last five starts, which would have been unfathomable if you told me that a month ago. Despite that, he’s been a solid fantasy producer, especially at home where he is averaging 25.4 DraftKings points per home start. The matchup with the Angels is hard to overlook as they rank 23rd in wOBA this season and have hit the second fewest HRs in the last 14 days.
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I’m a glutton for punishment, so why not run Matt Moore ($7,400) back out there? So much potential and upside, but he will be extremely volatile on a nightly basis. The metrics are there for Moor who owns a 9.44 K/9, which is second to only Jose Fernandez on this slate. His 3.71 xFIP is serviceable and his matchup with the Oakland A’s is sublime. Oakland ranks 25th in wOBA versus LHP this season and Tropicana Field continues to provide a safe-haven for pitchers, playing below league average in runs, HRs, doubles and triples this season.
I think the Pittsburgh Pirates will be under-owned tonight despite their impressive record versus LHP. They face Jon Lester who is one of the DFS favorite pitchers. I suspect many will opt to avoid this situation altogether, but the Pirates provide the type of upside you want in GPPs. No team has a better wOBA versus LHP this season and they rank 4th in wOBA overall. You can look back two weeks ago at Lester versus the Pirates and say it was advantage Lester who didn’t allow a single run in his start. If you look deeper, Lester surrendered 8 hits in only 5.2 IP but was able to come out of it unscathed. If he gives up another eight hits in 5.2 IP today, that could be a recipe for some runs.
That’s all folks! Be sure to follow me on Twitter for more player analysis and news as starting lineups are released! Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.