This is a really bad slate of pitching options today. Only nine games on the slate, including one at Coors Field. There is only one pitcher with more than 9 K/9 this season, and that’s Nate Karns checking in at 9.05. Karns is coming off a bad outing against the Rangers who beat him up for seven runs in just four innings. However, prior to his last start, Karns was excellent in his previous seven starts. During that stretch, he earned a 2.76 ERA and struck out 39 batters in 42.1 innings. He’s facing a middle of the road Indians team and will earn a big boost from Safeco Field. Safeco allowed the 4th fewest runs in the league last season.
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Similar to Nate Karns is Jimmy Nelson who is coming off a poor outing, but was outstanding for the majority of May. Nelson was knocked around by the Phillies (of all teams) last week, but posted a 1.57 ERA in his previous four starts (28.2 IP). He kept the ball in the park, allowing only one homer in that span. I don’t usually like rostering pitchers at Miller Park, but this is a really thin slate. At least the matchup with the Mets is a plus matchup. The Mets have really struggled this season and have the second-worst wOBA in the league over the course of the last 30 days. In that span, they are striking out at an insane 28.5% which is by far the highest rate in the league.
I rarely talk about the Rockies at Coors, but it’s unavoidable today. You shouldn’t need convincing to roster Colorado in their home park, where they own the league’s best wOBA. Even without playing at the most hitter-friendly park, the Rockies are a potent offense. They own the 6th best wOBA overall in the last 30 days and will now get to feast on Jeff Locke. Locke is in for a big challenge today. He owns the slate’s worst xFIP and is only striking out 3.38 batters per nine, also a slate-worst. His big problem is going to be the number of homers that he allows. His 1.82 HR/9 in the last 30 days is 10th worst in the entire league, not just today’s pitchers.
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