by Brad Messersmith | Jul 26, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA, Research, Strategy |
Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. There are really three true standouts this week which is very exciting in such a week field event. The results of events following a major tend to be fairly wide open because of the weaker base of players playing in these events. The first potential value that stands out on this chart is Patrick Rodgers who has roughly 60:1 odds to win this week despite a mere $7,000 price tag. The same can also be said for Daniel Summerhays who is in nearly an identical boat. Both Summerhays and Rodgers are intriguing to me having made exactly four cuts in a row each. With Rodgers we’re typically used to a very streaky set of results with missed cuts and upside being the normal mix, and Rodgers coming in off of a second place finish at the John Deer Classic two weeks ago leaves me wondering if his upward trend will continue. Either way both Summerhays and Rodgers will definitely make their way into my GPP lineups this week.
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Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. In terms of ownership this week, given it’s a weak field, you can expect there to be some serious clusters of ownership on a small few players. It’s hard to predict these clusters early in the week but given the aforementioned fact that results will tend to be wide open in an event like this, it may be a good week to go a bit contrarian. One name who catches the eye in that department is Rick Lamb, who at $6,800 has made four of his last five cuts and finished top 20 in three of those same events. Two weeks ago he managed to find himself in contention with a 3rd place finish at the John Deere classic, and we are on a track that plays to Rick’s strength…his cannon. It may surprise you to find out that Rick is in the top 10 in Strokes Gained off the tee, yet remains in the top 25 in proximity which makes him a skilled second shot player with a well-rounded game which should suit this course perfectly. Sign me up, and for those of you who are playing along in Vegas, I will be placing a few loose coins on Rick Lamb to win this thing at nearly 200:1 odds.
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Salary Vs. OWGR
Do you wonder how quickly the salaries are adjusted as a result of player’s performance? Ever wonder if there are players who’s prices don’t reflect their overall skill? These are questions you should be asking every week if you are serious about DFS, and now you can get the answer in one easy chart. A quick glance at this chart and Will McGirt should instantly stand out to you. I suspect a quick glance at the list of salaries may have warranted the same results which means McGirt will most likely suffer from the ‘cluster effect’ of ownership I mentioned previously. McGirt has great course history and his 56th rank in the world makes him nearly the tenth best ranked golfer in this field despite his near minimum salary price tag. While I don’t love McGirt’s chances to win this thing, I definitely thing he has top 10 upside and is probably worth taking a hard look at in GPPs.
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RBC Canadian Open Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.
by Brad Messersmith | Jul 18, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA, Research, Strategy |
Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. It’s finally here, The Open Championship! With the field being maxed out with some of the best golfers in the world this week you can expect to find some serious value. First and foremost we have Rafael Cabrera-Bello, who for those of you who may not be following the Euro Tour closely, is coming off of his first win in roughly four years at the Scottish Open last week. At only roughly 60:1 odds to win, Vegas believes RCB is more likely to win than names like Daniel Berger, Brandt Snedeker, and Zach Johnson. Berger and Snedeker actually stand out on their own for value purposes, both of which find themselves similarly priced to RCB. At the end of the day all three of these guys could win this tournament and find themselves sub $7k, so don’t overthink and plug them in!
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Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. This week you can expect a few things to be true, one of which is that Jason Day will be extremely low owned due to his recent struggles. I’m personally going to be taking a wait and see approach, but when it comes to a golfer as talented as Jason Day, if you wait and see it may be too late because he can come out of nowhere to win. On the flip side you can definitely expect the likes of Rickie Fowler, and Hideki Matsuyama to come in as two of the more popular plays this week.
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Salary Vs. OWGR
Do you wonder how quickly the salaries are adjusted as a result of player’s performance? Ever wonder if there are players who’s prices don’t reflect their overall skill? These are questions you should be asking every week if you are serious about DFS, and now you can get the answer in one easy chart. It should probably come as no surprise to see Daniel Berger’s name make the list when it comes to Salary Vs. OWGR this week given my statements above. You can expect Daniel Berger not to go unnoticed with his price tag, but if you’re looking for a bit of a pivot, you may think about considering Alexander Noren who most will have forgotten is actually ranked within the top 10 golfers in the world. Yet Noren’s price is only $7,800 and I don’t expect him to be one of the more popular plays on the board.
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The Open Championship Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.
by Brad Messersmith | Jul 12, 2017 | DraftKings |
Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. I’m a bit surprised at the way this chart looks because typically on weeks where the field is weaker (this week certainly qualifies) there are usually some much bigger outliers in this comparison tool. The few who do stand out this week, don’t strike me as major standouts the way I’m used to seeing. Boo Weekly and Scott Brown both stand out a bit at $6,600 and $7,000 respectively, but realistically if posed with a choice, I think I’d pass on both and elect to take one of the younger guys with more upside and less consistency. If you’re a golf betting person, you may want to pick this week to take some fliers as we’ve seen a lot of weak field events result in young standout’s getting their first win.
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Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. I am crossing my fingers and praying to the golf gods that I’m not wrong about Zach Johnson’s low ownership, because if he does come in at under 15% he makes for a phenomenal GPP play. He hasn’t been playing great this year, but he can win this tournament, is under priced, and low owned which is a recipe for a great GPP option. I bet you didn’t realize until this moment that Bubba Watson is in this field until just this moment. Why? Because you’ve perpetually glanced down the list of golfers and browsed past his name without a second thought for the last several months because of his poor play. However, Bubba has 20 golfers who are higher priced than him, including the likes of Bud Cauley, David Hearn, and Ben Martin. I’m not telling you Bubba is going to win this thing, but I’m telling you he can, and since he’s likely to be under 5% owned I’ll take a shot on Bubba without much risk.
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Salary Vs. OWGR
Do you wonder how quickly the salaries are adjusted as a result of player’s performance? Ever wonder if there are players who’s prices don’t reflect their overall skill? These are questions you should be asking every week if you are serious about DFS, and now you can get the answer in one easy chart. Here is where things really get interesting, because in a field where there isn’t much to pick from when it comes to sheer talent, we’ve got some serious discrepancies in this chart. The biggest of said discrepancies is Wesley Bryan who will make his way into a lot of my lineups. He’s the fourth highest ranked golfer in the field in the OWGR yet is only $7,300! This is a golfer who won 3 times on the Web.com tour just last year and has already tallied a win in his rookie season. Make no mistake about the talent that this young man has, and jump on board with me!
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Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.
by Brad Messersmith | Jul 5, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA, Research, Strategy |
Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. This week is going to be a much more difficult week with the fact that the pricing is a bit tighter and the field is quite a bit weaker than usual. That being said there are a couple of outliers this week, one of which is Billy Hurley III who comes in at only $6,200. While I wouldn’t go overboard with Billy Hurley I do think he presents some value and upside in such a weak field despite his poor recent form, especially when you consider that he’s finished fourth and thirty-seventh in his last two showing at this event. The other outlier is Steward Cink at $6,900 with nearly 65:1 odds to win. Not only does Stewart Cink make a great play in GPPs for his price, he is an absolute lock for me in cash formats boasting his astounding 10 top 30 finishes in his last 14 events.
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Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. This week you can expect ownership to depend drastically on what the industry experts are saying about certain golfers, however there are a few clear cut opportunities this week in my opinion. The first of which is Bubba Watson who leaves me a bit torn. On one hand his ownership is going to be exceptionally low in an event with not many premium golfers to choose from, however on the other hand he’s been playing exceptionally poorly nearly all year! It’s hard to want to pile onto Bubba like I have in years past but I think he is worth a small flier knowing he has the potential to be under 10% owned. On the other hand, you can expect players like Tony Finau, Danny Lee, Bill Haas, and David Lingmerth to all find their way into a lot of lineups!.
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Salary Vs. OWGR
Do you wonder how quickly the salaries are adjusted as a result of player’s performance? Ever wonder if there are players who’s prices don’t reflect their overall skill? These are questions you should be asking every week if you are serious about DFS, and now you can get the answer in one easy chart. There are a couple standouts on this chart that are very intriguing to me! The first of the standouts this week is Mackenzie Hughes who has flown a bit under the radar into the 111th position in the OWGR. At only $6,300 he definitely qualifies as value, and we’ve seen time and time again in weak fields rookies on tour find their way to break through for their first win 5-6 times a year. Seems like Hughes could fit the bill this week. The other standout is Si-Woo Kim who definitely makes an interesting GPP play. I think there is no question in my mind at this point that Si-Woo has some serious upside when it comes to GPPs, however inconsistency is the name of the game with Si-Woo. All that being said, in the mid-$7k range the pickings are slim so I’ll be firing Si-Woo up into a few of my lineups without question.
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Greenbriar Classic Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.
by Brad Messersmith | Jun 27, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA, Research, Strategy |
Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. This is what this article series is all about: VALUE! Matt Jones is a player that isn’t being mentioned at all this week and he makes perfect sense at only $6,700. In a field where it’s hard to find players to roster in the $7k range without eating so much chalk you can’t breathe, Jones offers a nice GPP alternative who saves you some salary, has good potential to make the cut and has roughly 100:1 odds to win the tournament this week. The other standout this week is probably one who will indeed be chalky but is probably worth the dry taste in your mouth in Adam Hadwin who comes in with a $6,900 price tag and nearly 70:1 odds to win the tournament. Despite what I expect to be a popular play in Hadwin, I think this is a spot to get a guy who clearly has the game to win the tournament and is as inexpensive as they come in that category.
Click To Enlarge!
Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. When it comes to ownership this week, there a few obvious standouts this early on, but you can expect there to be a large snowball effect in which a large percentage of people jump on a few select players causing ownership numbers to inflate quite a bit. My early guesses for ‘Snowball Effect’ candidates are Grayson Murray, Kyle Stanley, and Danny Lee, all of which are playing very solid golf. This doesn’t mean you should avoid them completely because looking elsewhere is a bit daunting this week with such a weak field in play. On the flip side, you might find some value in low ownership among guys like Billy Hurley, Russell Henley and J.B. Holmes, all of which I think make solid GPP plays given their deflated ownership numbers.
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Salary Vs. OWGR
Do you wonder how quickly the salaries are adjusted as a result of player’s performance? Ever wonder if there are players who’s prices don’t reflect their overall skill? These are questions you should be asking every week if you are serious about DFS, and now you can get the answer in one easy chart. There are a couple of very interesting names that show up on the OWGR chart this week that I plan on sliding into some GPP lineups without question. Adam Hadwin was mentioned earlier and the same holds true, but Wesley Bryan, and Si-Woo Kim make for an interesting discussion. Wes Bryan is one of the most skilled up-and-coming golfers in the world, which makes him a class golfer in this field save for a few names. Bryan has been slumping a bit since he nabbed his first win on tour a couple months ago, but look for him to bounce back at some point, and why not on a second shot course that should suit his game perfectly. The course fit narratives ring true for Si-Woo Kim as well, and as the 29th ranked golfer in the world I think the class golfer narratives works as well. With the upside needed to win this tournament if he’s on, Si-Woo is one that makes perfect sense in my mind.
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Quicken Loans National Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.
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