The Masters Preview – DraftKings

The Masters Preview – DraftKings

What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! WELCOME TO MASTERS WEEK!

This is easily the best time to be a golf fan, not only do we have the best golf tournament in the world just days away, but we have the best field that has ever been assembled set to compete. We are spoiled with the amount of talent we get to pick from – so enjoy the research, the lineup construction and the sweat – it should be a wild ride.

Augusta National.

For golf fans, it is heaven on earth and are sacred grounds we all hope to witness one day. Augusta National is a 7,435 yard Par 72 that will challenge every aspect of a golfer’s game. The elevation changes, rolling fairways and undulating greens make this course a test year in and year out. Experience is critical in order to succeed at this event, and it has been proven time after time, that first timers (debutants) struggle to figure out this unique venue. The rough at Augusta is virtually non-existent, so accuracy off the tee isn’t everything, but you better be missing in the right places. Approach game is very important, but the event bigger difference maker is scoring on the Par 5s. Birdies are tough to come by at Augusta, and if you can score on these Par 5s and stay afloat around the rest of the course, you will be in good shape. With tricky greens and tight lies around them, short game and putting will play a factor as well. But as mentioned before, Augusta is a track where course history plays a huge factor in predicting a golfer’s success.

Stats for the Week

SG: Ball Striking – SG:Approach + SG:Off the Tee

SG: Par 5s

GIRs Gained

Birdie or Better Gained

3 Putt Avoidance

SG:Around the Green

Past Champions

2017 – Sergio Garcia (-9)

2016 – Danny Willett (-5)

2015 – Jordan Spieth (-18)

2014 – Bubba Watson (-8)

2013 – Adam Scott (-9)

Alright, let’s get to the picks!

Staples

My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.

Jordan Spieth – $10,400

The entire 2018 season has been a collection of incredible events all leading up to The Masters. Tiger’s comeback, Mickelson’s win, Rory’s win and JT’s continued hot streak. All we needed was for Jordan Spieth to poke his head in and say “I’m here too.” That is exactly what happened last week at the Houston Open, where Spieth finished 3rd despite losing 3.2 strokes on the greens. Spieth is built for The Masters and built to win at Augusta. In his short career, he has a win and two runner up finishes in four tries. He leads the field in strokes SG:BS over the past 24 rounds. If Spieth can just figure out how to knock in a few 3-footers for par, he will have a late tee time on Sunday.

Justin Rose – $9,200

Justin Rose will be the chalk of all chalk, and I am willing to go overweight, and over 50% ownership on him. There is no one who has played Augusta better over the past 10 years without a win, and his time is now to collect his first green jacket. Rose has never missed a cut here, has seven top-15s in his last 10 appearances and has two runner-ups in the last three years. He came so close last year, losing to Sergio in a playoff. His form in 2018 is remarkable and his stats are impressive. He is my pick to win the 2018 Masters.

Paul Casey – $8,800

Let’s continue to eat the chalk with Paul Casey. Casey has been one of, if not the most, consistent golfer in the world over the past couple of seasons. He seems to always find a way to sneak into the top-10 and finally found his first win in years at the Valspar a couple of weeks ago. His history at Augusta is incredible, with three straight top-6 finishes and has five top-10s in eleven attempts. His game fits this course perfectly, with the ideal blend of distance and precision. Just like Rose, he has been knocking at the door for way too long to not break into the winner’s circle. I have little doubt he won’t be in the mix again on Sunday.

Alex Noren – $8,100

Alex Noren is playing on a different level than most guys right now, cranking out top finishes all over the place. He has three top-3s in his past seven events, and showed some serious stones at the WGC-Matchplay. People are worried about his inability to close, specifically in his high finishes this season and because he shanked at putt at the matchplay. But Noren is a proven winner worldwide, collecting six wins in the past three years. Noren ranks 2nd in my model over the past 24 rounds, 2nd in GIRs Gained, 7th in SG:Par 5s, 13th in SG:BS and 7th in 3-Putt Avoidance. $8,100 is an great price tag and he is still somewhat of an unfamiliar name to the casual fan, so his ownership could very well come in lower than projections are suggesting.

Adam Hadwin – $7,200

Hadwin has strung together some solid golf leading up to Augusta, a course that fits his game if all aspects are on. He has three straight top-15s, including a T6 at the Riviera, a course that over time, has produced similar winners as Augusta. Over his past 24 rounds, Hadwin is 5th in GIR Gained, 10th is SG:APP and 2nd in SG:ARG. In his first Masters appearance last year, Hadwin came a respectable T36. I expect him to crack the top-20 this week and flirt with a top-10 finish.

Pat Perez – $6,900

Pat Perez at first glance seems under priced, and at second and third glances, he is still under priced! Patty P is not a $6,900 golfer and hasn’t been playing like on either for a long time. His 150/1 odds to win are way longer than they should be. Perez consistently gains strokes in all categories, has the arrogance and attitude to contend with the best and not let the moment overwhelm him. Perez finished T18 at The Masters in 2017, and made the cut here as a first timer wayyy back in 2003. Hopefully Bryson DeChambeau can continue to be talked up and take some of the Perez ownership away. He is a lock for me in cash and makes lineup construction so easy.

The Masters Interactive Data

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Perfect Pivots

Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.

Dustin Johnson – $11,400 / Justin Thomas – $10,800

Had to jam both of these guys in this article somewhere, because I am getting the feeling that their ownership is going to be a lot lower than we expect. Both guys have an incredible chance to win this event, have the game to do it and the experience that is necessary. DJ and JT should never be less than 20% owned in any event, let alone a major, and I really think the come in under that number. If you are building multiple lineups, you have to have each of these guys on a few.

Jon Rahm – $9,300

Jon Rahm is being completely overlooked, and it’s obviously because of his recent form after his win at the CareerBuilder. That’s correct, he is a winner already this season and is being ignored because of recent form. Rahm has the off the tee and approach game to excel at Augusta, and can dominate these oh-so important Par 5s. He finished T27 here last year in his Masters debut and the time off he has taken since WGC-Mexico makes me think all his effort and preparation has been focused on this week. His ownership will be low, and his price tag is a great discount off the other elite options. Rahm is going to jump back into the picture in a big way.

Marc Leishman – $8,200

Leishman finds himself in the most crowded price range on the board, wedged in between Garcia, Fleetwood, Noren and Scott to name a few. And it shows. Leishman only has 13 tags on FanShare Sports at the moment, with his ownership likely hanging around the 5% range. Leish is coming off of a T7 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where he gained 4.7 strokes on approach shots. He also has a T4 finish at The Masters back in 2013, so he has proven he can contend. His low ownership and ability to contend in big events makes him a very intriguing Milly Maker option.

Louis Oosthuizen – $7,900

If you look back at the leaderboards of the past, you will notice there are a lot more South African flags than one would expect. Louis is one of the guys who has popped at Augusta in the coming 2nd in 2012 and has mixed in three top-25s since. Louis only has 12 tags on FanShare Sports, and is in the same range as Leishman where there are just so many other options people are targeting. A sub 5% Louis would could easily win someone seven figures on Sunday.

Webb Simpson – $7,300

Webb Simpson is not the Webb Simpson of old. He can actually putt. Webb has gained strokes putting in all but one event in 2018, just a shocking turnaround from what we have come to know him for. Webb has played at The Masters six times, making three cuts but doesn’t have any top-25s. However, like I said, this is a different version. He only six tags on FanShare Sports, has two top-10s in his past three events and has been crushing Par 5s over his past 24 rounds.

Cam Smith – $6,900

Cam Smith was just added to the field on Monday, so people will be late to the party for that reason alone. He hasn’t been mentioned in an preview articles or on podcasts until today, so the buzz just won’t be there. His price is dirt cheap for a golfer who posses a game that could translate well here. He has an amazing short game which will help him around the Augusta greens. He also got his debutant status removed after his T55 in 2016 – not a great result but at least he made the cut. Smith played very well at the match play and came T6 at the Genesis, an event that translates well the The Masters.

Automatic Fades

Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.

Tiger Woods – $10,000

Tiger will be one of the highest owned golfers this week – don’t be shocked if he eclipses 30% in the Milly Maker. Casual fans will all want to be in on the Tiger action, especially if he is in the mix on Sunday. What scares me is the number of drivers he will be forced to hit at Augusta. He has struggled big time with the big stick so far this season, missing both left and right. Sure he knows the spots to miss off the tee here, but if he can’t even control where his misses are going, it is going to be a short week for Tiger. As much as I don’t want to see him struggle, the high risk and high ownership he will carry makes for an easy fade. At $10,000 and 30%, he needs to come inside to the top-5 to reach value, as result I have a hard time envisioning.

Rickie Fowler – $9,000

At the Houston Open, Rickie did what Rickie is becoming all too well known for. He came out of the gates hot fire, but crumbled on Saturday and completely fell off the pace on the weekend once again. It is becoming a worrying trend, and definitely did not give him any additional confidence heading into the Masters. His name and price tag will draw people in regardless of his current form. Even if he is 15% owned in the Milly Maker, I don’t see this as a bounce back spot for him. A trunk slam from Fowler on Friday won’t be shocking at all.

Thomas Pieters – $8,300

Pieters was apart of the 2017 Milly Maker winning lineup, thanks to his T4 finish at sub 10% ownership. The thing about last year was that Pieters had two top-5 finishes in the five events leading up to The Masters, whereas this year, he only has one top-15 in his last five events. Pieters barely made the cut last week at the Houston Open, bogeying his last hole to fall outside of the cutline and it took two, late Friday three putts to get him playing on the weekend. He has lost strokes off the tee in back-to-back weeks, which will not transition well to Augusta.

Henrik Stenson – $7,800

Like Fowler, Stenson’s name and price tag will naturally draw people in, inflating his ownership without looking into his course history. For elite of a golfer as Stenson is, The Masters is definitely his least favorite major, having failed to finish inside the top 10 in 12 tries. His best finish was T14 in 2014 and has missed the cut four times as well. It would be nice of The Masters to release some strokes gained data from their event, so we could determine why he tends to struggle. Stenson has also entered The Masters with impressive form in the past, three times putting together back-to-back top 10s before this week and you guessed it, he has a 4th and T6 entering this week. You would think if he was destined to contend at The Masters, he would already have done it by now.

Tony Finau – $7,400

Tony Finau is one of the most popular plays in DFS, week in and week out, despite only on having on PGA Tour victory. I don’t expect that to change this week, even though he is making his first appearance at The Masters. It’s well documented that debutants struggle at Augusta, with the tricky greens, massive elevation changes and everything else it has to offer. Finau is not a good putter, and will likely be his downfall this week. At a higher than warranted ownership, I will pass on Finau and wait until 2019.

So, you got burned?

Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.

Tommy Fleetwood – $8,500

If you are asking where all the Tommy Fleetwood buzz went, you are not alone. It seemed as though Fleetwood was everyone’s pick to put on the green jacket just a few weeks ago, now he only has 25 tags on FanShare Sports, a considerable amount less than those priced around him. It has been a while since we saw Fleetwood near the top of a leaderboard, but his ball striking ability leads me to believe he will creep up there this weekend. His ownership will be reasonable, a drastic change than what projections would have said in February.

Hideki Matsuyama – $8,400

Hideki has been dealing with a wrist injury that has kept him out of action so far in the young season. The fact that he teed it up in the WGC Matchplay is a sign that he is feeling healthy and was committed to play a lot of golf a couple of weeks ago. Like Fleetwood, Hideki’s price tag is fantastic compared to the caliber of player he is – and probably can thank Tiger and Bubba’s recent results for lowering his price. Hideki has three straight top 11 finishes at Augusta, clearly showing he has an eye for the track.

Patrick Cantlay – $7,600

Expectations were so high for Cantlay when he entered 2018, it is no shock he can be considered a disappointment so far. One, he hasn’t been playing much, which we should have come to expect given his history with injuries. Two, he only has one top 10 on the season – and that just so happened to be at a corollary course, Riviera. Cantlay is not a first timer, despite his age and relative newness on tour. He made his only cut here back in 2012, finishing T47.

Ross Fisher – $7,000

Fisher is another guy who has fallen off in terms of buzz. Before showing up on American soil in March, Fisher had put some solid events together in the Middle East and gained a lot of attention at WGC-Mexico. He has yet to come inside the top 30 in his three events so far in the U.S. Perfect – Fisher has the makings to become a low owned, GPP flier who got his debutant status out of the way last year, finishing T41. Over his past 24 rounds, Fisher ranks 17th in the field in SG:BS, 12 in GIRs Gained and 30th in SG:Par 5. Not bad for a guy only priced $7,000.

Jason Dufner – $6,800

If you do find yourself scraping the bottom of the barrel this week, Jason Dufner is seems like a great option who will be overlooked because of his recent form. His last three times out he has come T55, MC and T64 last week at the Houston Open. Results that don’t scream good form. But he has the experience you want at Augusta, making five of seven cuts here. Now I don’t think Duf Daddy is going to win this week, but a top 15 is definitely a possibility.

Thanks for reading the The Masters preview article! Small, bittersweet announcement, but this will be my last article for DFSonDemand.com. Thank you so much for reading and following along – I hope my picks kept you entertained and maybe won you some money! I would love for you all to follow me on Twitter @EPatGolf to see what I have in store next – and I could not be more excited for what is to come. Also, don’t forget to check out FanShareSports.com to get a full look at who the DFS golf community is talking about this week!

Good luck this week everybody!!

Arnold Palmer Invitational Preview – DraftKings

Arnold Palmer Invitational Preview – DraftKings

What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! Have you started to appreciate how lucky we are getting with the golf performances week in and week out? This season is off to a fire start and now Tiger is fully back, which adds another dimension to the current game none of us have ever experienced. Buckle up – this is going to be one hell of a 2018 season.

We turn the page on the Valspar Championship, but luckily we have another loaded field at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Hosted at Arnie’s course, Bay Hill, located near Orlando, Florida, we are treated to a field consisting of some of the biggest players in the game, yet again. Tiger, Rory, Day and Fowler are just a few notables teeing it up, as well as a solid group of Europeans, who are all here to prime themselves for Augusta.

Bay Hill has hosted this event for years, since 1974 to be exact. However, it was redesigned in 2009 limiting the relevant tournament history we can look back at. With trouble looming on nearly every hole, accuracy and hitting fairways will be crucial. Like the last few weeks, the big stick will be left in the bag more often than usual as golfers will want to keep their balls dry. Bay Hill is a 7,419 yard, Par 72, and with a lot of irons off the tee, it can play much longer. With that said, long iron play will be critical this week, for both accuracy off the tee and into these hard to hit greens. The majority of approach shots are from 200+ yards and hitting greens in regulation occurs less often at Bay Hill than an average tour event. Bay Hill also consists of four Par 5s where most of the week’s scoring will take place.

Stats for the Week

SG: Ball Striking

SG: Approach

SG: Par 5s

Proximity 200+

Scrambling

Bogey Avoidance

Past Champions

2017 – Marc Leishman (-11)

2016 – Jason Day (-17)

2015 – Matt Every (-19)

2014 – Matt Every (-13)

2013 – Tiger Woods (-13)

Alright, let’s get to the picks!

Staples

My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.

Tiger Woods – $10,000

Personal note – I have been only writing about fantasy golf for a couple of years now, and never in my wildest dreams did I think I’d have the chance to consider Tiger Woods as the strongest play in an event. When Tiger first came back last year, he was an auto fade. Even early this season, there was so many question marks it was tough to roster him. But he is back – and I am all in. Tiger has won eight times at Bay Hill, EIGHT! He played extremely well at the Valspar, a course he has little familiarity with. Bay Hill will force Tiger to keep the driver in the bag, which is exactly what he needs right now. He is the betting favorite at 6/1, yet DraftKings has not priced him that way. I think some skepticism remains, which will keep his ownership in check a tiny bit.

Alexander Noren – $9,200

The price tag is too cheap for Alex Noren, who ranks 1st in my weighted stat model over the past 24 rounds. He has been super consistent this season, proving his success on the European Tour is far from a fluke. He hasn’t missed a cut on the PGA Tour since the U.S. Open. Noren has been consistently gaining strokes with his approach shots, leading to consistent top 15 results. He made the cut at Bay Hill last year in his first appearance at this event. I’d be shocked if Noren wasn’t in one of the last groups out on Sunday.

Adam Scott – $8,700

Adam Scott continues to impress after the golf world seemed to have deemed him as done late last year. He turned in another impressive tee to green performance at the Valspar, finishing 7th in SG:T2G. His putter, like usual, let him down at Copperhead where he gave up 3.4 strokes on the field. That is the obvious risk you take whenever Scott finds his way onto your roster. However, if his ball striking is back to a place where we expect Scott to be, the putter will show up on occasion and you have to take your shots with him. Scott has three made cuts at Arnie’s tournament, including a 3rd place finish in 2014.

Emiliano Grillo – $7,600

Grillo pops in all three areas this week – stats, current form and course history. He is as straight as them come off the tee on tour, and is great from 200 yard and out. Grillo has back-to-back top 10s, an 8th at the Honda Classic and a 6th last week at the Hero Indian Open. Grillo got out of the gates real quick last week before a 3rd round 78 derailed his title hopes. Regardless, he is still playing fantastic golf and Bay Hill suits his eye. He came T7 here last season after his T17 finish in his debut.

Kevin Chappell – $7,300

How Kevin Chappell is only $7,300 at Bay Hill is beyond me. Chappell is one of the best ball strikers in the field and ranks 3rd in my weighted stat model over the past 24 rounds. His elite long iron game as of late will be very important if he wants another top 5 finish like he had here in 2016, where he was the runner-up to Jason Day. Chappell has yet to miss a cut this season, something that cannot be said for the majority of golfers priced in this range. If his putter shows up for just this week, we just need ONE week, the reward for rostering Chappell will be very large.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Interactive Data

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Perfect Pivots

Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.

Rory McIlroy – $10,700

Is this Rory week? I have no clue, but at some point his game is going to click and it is better to be on him the week before the ownership piles on. Rory missed the cut at the Valspar and finished T59 at the Honda Classic. Two terrible performances by Rory’s standards and no one is lining up to roster him at $10,700. The positive from last week, if there is one, is that Rory gained strokes everywhere but the greens, where he lost 4.2 strokes. McIlroy finished T4 at Bay Hill last season and has made all three cuts in the past three years. At this point in the season, you either have to be overweight on Rory and accept the risk, or completely fade him. I have a hunch that this is the week.

Marc Leishman – $8,400

The defending champ is going untalked about. Leishman only has a single tag on FanShare Sports and the only reason for that is because his recent form is suspect. He came T37 in Mexico, missed the cut at Riviera and and was T31 at the Waste Management. Pretty average. What hasn’t been average is his putter, it has been worse. He has lost 3.4 strokes and 5.7 strokes in his last two events. That is great news for us, who are going to be overweight on Leishman in GPPs. He clearly has the game that can win at Bay Hill and is very affordable this week. Leish falls in a dead zone in the pricing so his ownership will likely hover in the 10% range.

Russell Knox – $7,600

Russell Knox doesn’t have a single tag on FanShare Sports, and is priced right beside the chalk of the $7K range, Emiliano Grillo. On paper, Knox has the game that fits this course. Accurate off the tee and exceptional with his irons. Over his past 24 rounds, Knox ranks 13 in SG: Par 5s and 7th in bogey avoidance, both stats will play a factor this week. Knox has made both cuts in his trips to Bay Hill, and enters the week coming off of a T16 at the Valspar.

Kyle Stanley – $7,200

Before his withdraw at the Valspar Championship, Stanley was going to be a target of mine because he ranked 3rd in the field in strokes gained approach at the WGC – Mexico Championship. And because we didn’t get to see Stanley last week, people have quickly forgotten about him. Priced at only $7,200, Stanley is a fantastic value option with greater winning potential than his peers in the same price range. He finished T17 at Bay Hill last year, a result he can easily replicate if his approach game remains on fire. There is some risk however, as he did withdraw last week for an undisclosed reason.

Automatic Fades

Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.

Justin Rose – $11,500

This is the price I hate to see Justin Rose at. I want, we all want the $9,500 Rose who flies under the radar. It feels super weird to roster Rose, the second highest priced golfer this week at $11,500, and because of that gut instinct, I cannot do it. He was in the final group Sunday at the Valspar, but looking closer at his numbers for the week, he relied heavily on his putter, gaining 6.7 strokes – the best putting performance of his recorded career. I will gladly pass on the expensive version of Rose, pray he misses a couple of cuts so we can get back on him at Augusta.

Patrick Reed – $8,900

Patrick Reed sure did spend a lot of time on the TV last week, and the entire golfing world was watching. Reed, in his wannabe Tiger Sunday red, had a chance to force a playoff at the Valspar, but bogeyed the last in an ugly fashion to finish in a tie for second. Reed now see’s an insane $1,200 price jump in a field that is probably stronger than last week on paper. I don’t trust Reed on a course that demands strong long iron play and accuracy off the tee. He has not played this event since 2014, and has a T54 and missed cut on his resume.

Jason Kokrak – $8,000

Jason Kokrak’s course history is clearly baked into his price this week. $8,000 in a field of this strength is absurd for a golfer of his caliber. Granted, he is played solid, with four five straight cuts made and a T8 last week at the Valspar. However, there are so many better golfers in his price range, who are better fitted for this course with a greater pedigree. He has been doing most of his damage recently off the tee and around the greens, with his approach game being very average. Before you drop $8,000 on Kokrak, just remember that he only has five career top 5 finishes.

Scott Stallings – $7,700

Scott Stallings somehow is priced at $7,700 and will be owned like a goler who is way overpriced. He has three missed cuts here in the past five years, his only three trips to Bay Hill. Stallings has been playing better this season, but his five straight made cuts are trending in the opposite direction. I doubt you needed much reason to fade Stallings, but it is important to hammer home the idea that he is a poor play, with low upside at at high price.

So, you got burned?

Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.

Henrik Stenson – $9,100

Stenson’s missed cut last week while priced at $10,200 was not what people were looking for. Stenson lost strokes everywhere but off the tee. Chalk that up to some rust on North American soil. It was his first event Stateside in 2018, and now that he has that MC out of the way, he can focus on an event he has dominated at in the past. Typically, DraftKings takes course history into account when coming up with the prices, but they missed the boat on Stenson. Before last year’s missed cut at Bay Hill, Stenson had four straight top 10s, three of which were inside the top 5. His price is extremely affordable and his performance last week will those who don’t do much research off of him.

Byeong Hun An – $7,700

Benny An shaped up well for last week’s Valspar Championship, but missed the cut due to, surprisingly, his ball striking. He lost 2.1 strokes to the field on his approaches and somehow gained 1.3 on the green. What I do expect to turn around is his iron play. He now had three straight weeks of positive strokes gained on the greens and is one week removed from gaining over six on approach shots. No one is going to be rostering An this week. He is an un-sexy name at a higher than expected price, all while coming off of a missed cut. I smell a less than 5% owned top 10 in the making.

Matthew Fitzpatrick – $7,400

A Twitter darling to some, Matthew Fitzpatrick let down his cheering section in a big way last week. Copperhead seemed like a perfect fit for the accurate Fitzpatrick. However, his short game and putting were less than stellar on route to a missed cut. The thing is, Bay Hill is a lot like Copperhead, so we get another chance to roster Fitz at a course he fits (fun pun there). He lands in a crowded price range with some popular names likely to soak up all the ownership. Fitz could easily be a sub 5% owned golfer with the rare upside of finishing inside the top 5.

Thanks for reading the Arnold Palmer Invitational preview article! Follow me on Twitter for more DFS and golf betting talk! Also, don’t forget to check out FanShareSports.com to get a full look at who the DFS golf community is talking about this week!

Good luck this week everybody!!

Valspar Championship Preview – DraftKings

Valspar Championship Preview – DraftKings

What’s going on fantasy golf fans?! What an incredible event the WGC Mexico Championship was. Phil got off the scheid and Justin Thomas jugged in from the fairway on the 72nd hole, which has to be the early favorite to win shot of the year. Mexico provided us with four days of solid entertainment. We can only hope the Valspar Championship is half as good.

To Tampa we go, for the Valspar Championship, hosted at Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Golf Resort. Copperhead has held this event since its inauguration in 2000. Copperhead is a 7,300 yard Par 71 track, consisting of five Par 3s and four Par 5s. Best known for the “Snake Pit” – the three closing holes are the toughest stretch on the course. No lead is safe while standing on the 16th tee. The Par 3s at Copperhead are all very difficult, all of which are over 200 yards except one. To make up for this, the Par 5s are the four easiest holes on the course.

With tight, tree-lined fairways and a lot of doglegs, golfers will be forced to keep the headcover on the big stick and club down off the tee. That places a greater emphasis on iron play, specifically long irons, as golfers will be looking to just keep the ball in play and get in the ideal positions This is a similar scenario we saw at the Honda Classic a couple of weeks ago. Bombers still have a slight advantage, but the accuracy guys definitely have a better chance to contend than usual.

Stats for the Week

SG: Ball Striking

SG: Approach

Good Drives Gained

SG: Par 3s

Proximity 175+

Par 4s 400-450

Defending Champion

2017 – Adam Hadwin (-14)

2016 – Charl Schwartzel (-7)

2015 – Jordan Spieth (-10)

2014 – John Senden (-7)

2013 – Kevin Streelman (-10)

Alright, let’s get to the picks!

Staples

My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.

Sergio Garcia – $10,900

Jumping down to Sergio from Spieth or Rory, is the safer, smarter and best way to build a cash game lineup this week. The saving you get will allow you to jam another stud into your lineup, before going down the board to mine value. Garcia played great last week, even though he struggled a bit on Sunday, his T7 finish was encouraging. He gained strokes everywhere but around the green. Ball striking, approach, accuracy off the tee and Par 4s from 400-450 are all aspects of the game Garcia crushes – that is why he ranks 2nd in my weighted stat ranking over the past 24 rounds. He will be in the hunt as we sit down for dinner on Sunday evening.

Paul Casey – $9,800

Paul Casey continues to churn out high finishes, posting another top 15 finish last week, despite being out of it for the entire length of the event. Casey pops in every single statistically category, which is too be expected from someone who is as consistent as him. Accuracy, ball striking, greens in regulation. They will all be factors this week and are all areas in which Casey excels at. Casey could easily become chalk this week, but a good way to own him and still differentiate, is to make sure Casey is the highest priced golfer in your lineup. This is a unique way to construct a roster, as the majority of lineups have a +$10K golfer.

Adam Hadwin – $8,800

The 2017 Valspar Champ begins his defence while playing some incredible golf as of late. He now has back-to-back top 10s in some pretty loaded fields, The Genesis and WGC Mexico. He gained seven strokes on approach shots last week, climbing up the leaderboard through the weekend. His final round 66 was the third lowest on the day. His price is high, and hopefully it is high enough to deter the masses from piling on the defending champ.

Adam Scott – $8,700

Adam Scott continues to show signs of life. He has now recorded back-to-back events where he has gained over 4.2 strokes on approach shots. Last time out at the Honda Classic, Scott only lost strokes putting, which is to be expected, on his way to a T13 result. If the trend continues, and his approach game continues to improve, the old Adam Scott should emerge. His price has increased significantly over the last couple of events, but that won’t deter me from getting onboard before he shows up in a final pairing on Sunday.

Kevin Streelman – $7,500

This is Kevin Streelman’s event. A former winner at Copperhead, Streelman enters the 2018 Valspar in fantastic form. He has gained strokes on approach shots in 11 straight events, highlighted by his T6 at Pebble Beach. Streels ranks 7th in my model over the past 24 rounds, thanks to his ball striking and good drives gained. To go along with his win here in 2013, Streelman has made three of the last four cuts at Copperhead.

Keegan Bradley – $7,000

Generally I am not a Keegan guy because of his tendency to completely blow up (see 2016 Valspar). But at his price tag this is a no brainer. He enters this event with some of the best ball striking stats in the field and ranks 5th in my weighted stat model over the past 24 rounds. Fairways, approach game, long irons. Keegan has been playing very well and this course should fit his game, if he can just make some putts, and that is a big IF. He lost 8.9 strokes putting at the Honda, and still made the cut. If he improves that slightly he will easily pay of his $7,000 price tag.

Valspar Championship Interactive Data

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Perfect Pivots

Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.

Tiger Woods – $9,500

Tiger Woods, a pivot? That’s right! I don’t see Tiger’s ownership getting out of hand this week, as he falls in a bit of a dead range in the DraftKings pricing. This is the first week all season I feel comfortable rostering Tiger, mainly because the driver will be out of his hands most of the week. He is obviously feeling very comfortable and confident in his game to add the Valspar to his schedule. Tiger gained 4.5 strokes on approach shots at the Honda, putted great and didn’t lose strokes in any category. He only has two tags on FanShare Sports, which for Tiger Woods’ standards is incredibly low.

Byeong Hun An – $8,400

Benny An put on a ball striking clinic at the Honda Classic on his way to a T5 finish. He was 6th that week in SG:APP and also had a solid week putting on the bermuda greens, gaining 3.3 strokes. An’s price at first glance seems a bit steep, and with the likes of Scott, Kuchar and Louis all priced around him, it will be tough to imagine his ownership exceeding 10%. An made his first and only cut at this event here last year, where he struggled on the greens as expected. It’s hit or miss with his flat stick, but the risk is well worth if his ball striking remains elite.

Chez Reavie – $7,900

Chez had his run a few weeks ago, putting together great results at Phoenix and Pebble. After a couple of weeks off, he returned last week and struggled to get it going, finishing T52. Now that the rust has been shaken off a bit, Reavie can return to a course that seems to fit his game perfectly. He has made the cut the last two times here, finishing T27 and T22. He is accurate off the tee, even with his driver, crushes Par 3s and is excellent on Par 4s ranging from 400-450 yards. Reavie is primed to bounce bag in a big way.

Ross Fisher – $7,600

Ross Fisher could not figure out the poa greens in Mexico to save his life. He lost 5.5 strokes putting on his way to a T46 finish. What is nice to see, is that he gained 6.4 strokes on approach shots, which was the second most on the week. If Fisher can carry that ball striking over to the Valspar, he has a legit shot a top 5 finish. Fisher currently has zero tags on FanShareSports and is priced right above the likely popular Kevin Streelman. People will see his result from last week and be scared off, but a change of putting surface could be all Fisher needs.

Automatic Fades

Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.

Rory McIlroy – $11,300

I think this will be a popular fade option this week, as Rory has been struggling to find his feet in North American soil. At the Honda Classic, Rory lost 4.8 strokes on approach shots and 2.3 around the green. We know Rory’s biggest weapon is his driver, and that typically gets taken out of golfers hands this week at Copperhead. The average driving distance here is just over 270, compared to the tour average 282 yard. With driver out of the bag, Rory will have to rely on that shaking approach game and his suspect putter. Add on the fact that he has never played in this event before and his giant price tag becomes even tougher to swallow.

Gary Woodland – $9,000

Gary hasn’t been the same since his win at the Waste Management. Perhaps he got a little too fat and happy after his victory. He followed up his win with a missed cut, a T49 and a T50 last week in Mexico, where he lost an ugly 5.7 strokes on approach shots last week. Woodland is a previous winner at the Valspar, and if that information reaches enough people, there will be temptation to roster him. He has also missed the cut here twice in the past five years, and at $9,000 there is way too much risk here to invest.

Branden Grace – $8,600

Branden Grace doesn’t quite have it all working right now, recording mediocre finish after mediocre finish. His $8,600 price tag is steep, especially in a price range with tons of other excellent options. His winning potential seems low at the moment, by not excelling in any one stat category, or having good course history. There are no scenarios where I am putting Grace into a lineup and not finding an extra $100 to move up to Scott, or just dropping down to Benny An.

Luke List – $7,800

The last time we saw Luke List, he was losing in a playoff to Justin Thomas at the Honda Classic. That is a vivid memory for a lot of DFSers and they will be eager to get back on List while he is hot. The thing about Luke List is, that can turn it on and off better (or worse) than any one in the game. List is a notoriously terrible putter, yet gained 5 strokes on the green at the Honda, his forth best putting performance of his recorded career. The last time List was popular, he around 9% owned at the CareerBuilder and he fittingly missed the cut.

So, you got burned?

Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.

Justin Rose – $10,000

Rose was less than stellar last week in Mexico, as he entered the week as a sneaky GPP play at $9,700. He managed to only gain strokes off the tee on route to a T37 result. Rust? Let’s hope. Last week was Rose’s first event back since the Farmers and he clearly wasn’t sharp. He now gets a price increase in a field where saving money isn’t a huge issue because of all of the value. Know that prior to last week, Rose was playing some of the best golf of his career. He had finished inside the top 10 in 11 out of his last 12 events, including three wins.

Matt Kuchar – $8,200

Kuch was awful last week. He was only $7,600 and even though it was a no-cut event, his safety was intriguing and a top 20 seemed like a lock. However, he went on to lose a whopping 7.4 strokes on the green and settled into a tie for 58th. Not your usual Kuchar result. Luckily, the Valspar is an event where you can expect your top 20 Kuchar finish. He has made seven straight cuts here, with four top 15s. Show your loyalty to Kuchar like he does to the Sketchers brand, and you shall be rewarded.

Ollie Schniederjans – $7,700

Ollie didn’t only burn every at the Honda, he has been burning everyone all year. We have been chasing his first career PGA Tour win since the fall swing season, and yes he has come close a couple times, but his last few results have been pretty ugly. His T3 at the Waste Management has been surrounded by two missed cuts and a T64. He has missed the cut both times he has played here. Don’t worry, all of this is good news in terms of Ollie’s ownership. People are tired of Ollie, not talking about him and he will fly under the radar. This is the time to capitalize.

Chesson Hadley – $7,400

Hadley was supposed to win the Honda Classic, at least according to my Twitter timeline. Instead, he lost six strokes around the green and missed the cut, leaving everyone who rostered him at $7,700 seething. His $300 price reduction will help keep a few people around, but don’t expect him to reach 31 tags on FanShare Sports like he did a couple weeks ago. His ball striking this season has been incredible and he also has had success at this event in the past. Hadley has also made the cut here all three times he’s teed it up.

Thanks for reading the Valspar Championship preview article! Follow me on Twitter @EPattersonFS for more DFS and golf betting talk! Also, don’t forget to check out FanShareSports.com to get a full look at who the DFS golf community is talking about this week!

Good luck this week everybody!!

WGC – Mexico Preview – DraftKings

WGC – Mexico Preview – DraftKings

What’s going on fantasy golf fans?! I hope everyone survived the carnage that took place at the Honda Classic and is ready to buckle up for a trip to Mexico!

It’s our first World Golf Championship of 2018. The WGC – Mexico Championship will be played at Club de Golf Chapultepec, located just outside of Mexico City. This is the second year Chapultepec has hosted this event, since it moved from its previous home, Trump National Doral. This course is played at an extreme elevation, around 8,000ft above sea level, which will give the golfers a considerable amount of extra distance off the tee. That being said, a lot of golfers won’t be using their driver because the ball travels so far. Mickelson took his big stick out of the back last year. However, it is still an advantage to the bombers who can hit their 3-woods or long irons 300+, and still reach Par 5s in two.

The course’s main defence is its tight, tree lined fairways and stick Kikuyu rough. Hitting the fairway off the tee will be critical if a golfer wants a decent shot at birdie. Speaking of birdies, there will be more than normal this week because it is a NO-CUT event…I thought we moved on from these. Each golfer is guaranteed 72 holes, that is if they survive a week eating Mexican food and avoid drinking any water. Stenson withdrew here last year after a few holes because of a stomach bug, aka. The Mexican Shits.

Stats for the Week

SG: Approach

SG: Par 5s

Birdie or Better Gained

SG: Ball Striking

SG:Par 4s

Defending Champion

2017 – Dustin Johnson (-14)

Alright, let’s get to the picks!

Staples

My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.

Dustin Johnson – $11,900

Boring I know, but whenever DJ is in the field playing at a course he has won at before, it’s so tough not to load up. There is only so much that can be said about DJ before it becomes copy and paste from the week prior. However, I do like the fact that his price is so inflated, people will find it tough to make good looking lineups on paper. He also is coming off of a poor showing by his standards at Riviera, a course he typically dominates. One can hope the ownership won’t get too out of control for the 5/1 favorite.

Tommy Fleetwood – $10,000

All aboard the Fleetwood train…once again. Make it three straight weeks of being in on Fleetwood and I apologize for being repetitive, but when a world class ball striker is affordable and a good course fit, he becomes a “jam him in” play. Fleetwood gained 6.1 strokes on approach shots at the Honda Classic last week, something we should start getting use to. He finished second at Chapultepec last season, gaining 6.5 strokes on approaches then. He’s due for a breakout on the North American stage, and perhaps a trip to Mexico is all he needs to get the monkey off his back.

Alex Noren – $8,800

Noren was priced $10,100 last week and came third, so obviously his price had to drop $1,300. Noren is playing incredible as of late, getting his feet real wet on North American soil. He has two top 5s in four events, gaining strokes on approach shots in all four (17.2 over his last four to be exact). He played in this tournament last year, and if it weren’t for an opening round 76, his T55 finish would look much, much better. What is different from last year, is that Noren was not playing nearly as much as he has been in 2018, making his results from last year tough to compare. I’m all in and Noren is a lock for cash.

Xander Schauffele – $7,800

If last year’s leaderboard tells any story, it’s that distance is king in Mexico and there are few guys on tour who hit it as far as Xander. He has strung together two solid performances in a row, a T17 at the Waste Management and a T9 at the Genesis, trending in the right direction towards another high finish. He turned his approach game around in those two weeks, putting together the whole package. I don’t expect his ownership to be very high in a crowded high $7K range. Ball striking, distance, scoring – he covers all the bases.

Pat Perez – $7,400

Pat Perez stuck out as one of the best values on the board, and a great option to pair with DJ in your builds. Perez has been all over the map to start the 2018 season, making an odd trip to Dubai in the middle of the west coast swing. His results haven’t been great, but he is making cuts and gaining strokes in the key categories. He is one of the best birdie makers in the field, is excellent on Par 5s and has a T38 under his belt from last year. His price is way too good to pass up.

WGC Mexico Interactive Data

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Perfect Pivots

Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.

Jon Rahm – $10,600

Rahm is a very polarizing golfer this week, as he enters this WGC event with less buzz than we would have expected a few weeks ago. Since his win at the CareerBuilder, Rahm hasn’t finished inside the top 10 and outside of the top 25 twice. After a much deserved week off, Rahm is back and priced as the third highest golfer. WIth DJ, JT and Fleetwood creating all the buzz at the top, Rahm is getting overlooked. He only has seven tags on FanShareSports, despite his T3 finish here last year. If you want to save some cash and move to a lower owned elite golfer, Rahm is the perfect fit.

Justin Rose – $9,700

It’s good to have the low owned Justin Rose days back again. At the end of 2017 when Rose was winning everything, there was no shot he was flying under the radar. With only three tags on FanShareSports early in the week, it looks as though we are on our way to a 10% Rose in a perfect pivot situation. Rose has the elite ball striking skills to succeed here, however he did not put those to use last year, losing 6.4 strokes on approach shots. I don’t expect that approach game to repeat itself. Rose won the last WGC event and is the caliber of player we should all be salivating for if his ownership is in the single digits.

Kevin Chappell – $8,100

Kevin Chappell only has a single tag on FanShareSports and is priced right below some very trendy golfers, Pieters, Fisher and Frittelli. Chappell has been putting together some very solid results, two top 10s in his past five events,  gaining strokes off the tee each time. When he is one with his irons he will always have a shot to contend. Chappell played Chapultepec last year, finishing T55 (yuck), but having some familiarity with the course is never a bad thing. Last year, he gained 4.1 strokes on these poa greens, so if Chappell’s putting scares you off, know that he has rolled it well here in the past.

Marc Leishman – $7,600

I think everyone is over Marc Leishman. He has been having an okay season with a couple top 10s, but a lot of people pegged him for a major win this year and the signs are showing yet. Awesome. A low owned Leishman at only $7,600 has the makings for a perfect GPP play. The positive is that Leishman’s only missed cut this season was at the Genesis, where he lost 5.7 strokes putting. If that putting performance doesn’t repeat itself, and it likely won’t, combined with the fact he could be less than 10% owned (ZERO tags on FanShareSports at the moment), Leishman is the king of all GPP plays.

Automatic Fades

Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.

Bubba Watson – $8,900

Bubba is back! Sort of. Coming of his win at Riviera, the buzz around Bubba is real. People are even getting excited about his chances to win the Masters again. Pump the breaks. Yes, he won the Genesis, but that is a course he has loved and dominated at for years. Skeptical is a good word to describe how I see Bubba. He is one of, if not THE, weirdest cats on the PGA Tour and he can shut it off just as easily as he turned it on at Riv. At his inflated price, I am backing on Watson to produce another T38 finish like he did here last year.

Dylan Frittelli – $8,200

Frittelli impressed last week for his first ever PGA Tour start finishing 11th. However, I am hesitant to go back to him because he did a lot of his damage on the greens at the Honda, gaining 4.2 shots. People will be excited to roster Frittelli and treat him like a shiny new toy. His ownership could become inflated, as the early trends are indicating on FanShareSports. If his putting comes back to earth, and it likely could on the poa greens at Chapultepec, Frittelli will underwhelm those who bought into his Honda Classic success.

Patrick Reed – $7,400

Chapultepec requires straight distance off the tee and precision with approach shots – things Reed are currently struggling with. In his back-to-back missed cuts, Reed has lost 5.5 strokes on approach shots and 0.3 off the tee. If it weren’t for his short game and putting, there is a chance Reed wouldn’t have made a cut so far this season. There are plenty other options in his price range who are playing better and present a much higher upside.

So, you got burned?

Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.

Rickie Fowler – $9.800

Rickie entered last week as the defending champ, the highest priced golfer and high expectations to follow up a solid Waste Management Open. Unfortunately for those who bought in, disappointment was all Fowler dished out at the Honda. He failed the play the weekend, losing 2.9 strokes on the greens. Place Rickie in a loaded field after a missed cut and no one will be lining up to roster him again. Fowler came T16 here last year, which would have been a lot better if it weren’t for a 73 in round three.

Tyrrell Hatton – $8,600

At the Honda Classic, the decision between rostering Hatton or Fleetwood had to be made by many people due to their similar price. How do you think that went for the Hatton backers? Fleetwood went on to 4th place finish while Hatton missed the cut. I guarantee that bitter taste remains heading into Mexico and Hatton will be overlooked big time. The stats and projections loved him last week – don’t let one week sway your opinion. Hatton came 10th here last year and can easily recover and do that again.

Kevin Kisner – $7,500

There’s no doubt Kisner’s 2018 season has gotten off to a terrible start. His approach game is way off losing strokes in four of the five events. What’s great about Kisner this week is that he will be owned by about 5% of the field, is guaranteed four rounds barring no withdraw, and is returning to a course he came 11th in last year. The risk is high, but if he strikes some 2017 magic this week, Kisner could end up winning someone a lot of money.

Thanks for reading the WGC – Mexico Championship preview article! Follow me on Twitter for more DFS and golf betting talk! Also, don’t forget to check out FanShareSports.com to get a full look at who the DFS golf community is talking about this week!

Good luck this week everybody!!

Honda Classic Preview – DraftKings

Honda Classic Preview – DraftKings

What’s going on fantasy golf fans?! The west coast swing has come to an end and has already provided us with some fantastic tournaments with big time winners. But now it’s time to head to the east coast, and with that comes the early morning Thursday tilt!

The pros head to Palm Beach Gardens, Florida for the Honda Classic. Hosted at the PGA National Champion Course, this 7,100 yard Par 70 is one of the toughest challenges presented on the PGA Tour. With tons of water and bunkers placed almost everywhere, all aspects of a golfer’s game will be tested. Famously known for the “Bear Trap” – a three hole stretch on the back nine consisting of two tough Par 3s and a Par 4. Golfers who can survive this three hole stretch for all four days will easily find themselves at the top of the leaderboard late on Sunday. Accuracy off the tee will be crucial and plenty of guys will be using less than driver off the tee. That means whoever is sticking their approach shots will have a leg up on the competition. Another note – golfing on the east coast means we will be saying goodbye to poa greens and hello to bermuda grass!

Stats for the Week

SG: Ball Striking

SG: Par 4s

SG: Par 5s

Good Drives Gained

Proximity 175+

SG: Putting – Bermuda

Previous Winners

2017 – Rickie Fowler (-12)

2016 – Adam Scott (-9)

2015 – Padraig Harrington (-6)

2014 – Russell Henley (-8)

2013 – Michael Thompson (-9)

Alright, let’s get to the picks!

Staples

My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.

Sergio Garcia – $10,500

This is the first we get to see of Sergio in the 2018 season, on the PGA Tour at least. While we were sweating out the CareerBuilder Challenge Sergio was busy in Singapore winning a golf tournament. I have no concerns with Sergio making his North American start – for all we know he has been in the States for weeks already. He is the ideal golfer we are looking to target at the top. Accurate off the tee, elite iron play and a proven winner on US soil. The discount you get going with Sergio over Rory can drastically improve the makeup of your lineup, while still getting an elite player in the field. Garcia is my pick of one and done this week as well. Add in the recent announcement made that he and his wife have a baby on the way, and we have the complete “baby swag” package.

Tommy Fleetwood – $9,400

Being on Fleetwood last week was a little frustrating as he was unable to get anything going all week. His T37 finish was less than what we hoped for, but he did gain strokes both off the tee and on approaches at the Genesis. Fairways and close approaches are our targets this week and there are few in the world who are better than Tommy. I am sticking with him at a similar price, in the hopes his ownership takes a hit after last weeks results.

Chesson Hadley – $7,700

Hadley’s impressive run continues. He has made every cut of the 2018 season with four top five finishes. Chesson has two top 25 finishes in three attempts at the Honda Classic, but has never entered this event hitting the ball as well as he is now. Over his past 24 rounds, Hadley ranks 1st in SG:Ball Striking, 16th on Par 4s and 11 on Par 5s. He is crushing it tee to green and sets up perfectly to make another serious run to pick up his second career PGA Tour victory.

Patton Kizzire – $7,300

Kizzire is already a two time winner this season and is priced as if he is struggling to make cuts consistently. He hasn’t played in a couple of weeks, noting that he hates putting on poa greens, which is likely why he sat out some of the California events. Returning to an area of the country he feels more comfortable in, with the confidence he can win on tour is a dangerous combination. He ranks 3rd in my weight stats rankings and his price is just way too good to pass up.

Sean O’Hair – $6,800

Sean O’Hair’s recent results may not be that impressive, but he is making cuts which is all you can ask for out of a guy priced below $7K. Last week, O’Hair LOST 7.8 stokes around the green, by far the worst performance of his career and he still made the cut. The Honda Classic is an event he had had a ton of success at, making four of his last five cut and finishing inside the top 25 all four times. $6,800 is an absolute steal for a golfer who is showing solid cut making form and is about to tee it up at a course he is very familiar with.

Honda Classic Interactive Data

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Perfect Pivots

Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.

Patrick Reed – $9,100

Just a couple weeks ago, people were all over Patrick Reed with tons of people using him in One and Done formats. Now, he only has TWO tags on FanShareSports! I am far from a Patrick Reed guy, but even that seems insane. He will easily be the lowest owned golfer in the $9K and above range. Reed has made three of his last four cuts here, including a T7 in 2015. Taking the driver out of his hands will be a good thing for Reed, who has the potential to win some people some serious money.

Kevin Kisner – $8,500

Finally we get Kevin Kisner back on bermuda greens. Kisner has never had a ton of success on the west coast, so his mediocre results to start the season are someone expected. Kisner has made three straight cuts here, but unfortunately his best finish is a T48. Regardless, he has the ball striking ability to compete here and if putting plays a key role come Sunday, Kisner’s elite use of the flat stick will be important. With only six tags on FanShare, and surrounded by Ollie and Dufner, Kisner won’t exceed 10% ownership.

Bernd Wiesberger – $7,600

If you have followed Bernd’s career at all both in Europe and the States, you will know he is the definition of a grinder. Put Wiesberger on a tough track where pars are a good score, and he will be in the mix. Forcing him to attack pins and rack up the birdies is not Bernd’s game. Luckily, PGA National is one of those tough courses where avoiding bogeys and big numbers is important. Wiesberger is getting his feet wet on North American soil, and only has four tags on FanShare Sports. There are a ton of chalky options around him that will leave Bernd in the 5% owned range.

Brian Gay – $7,100

Brian Gay pops in my model, mainly because he is the best golfer in this field when it comes to putting on Bermuda. Gay is a Florida Gator who has a ton of experience golfing in Florida conditions. He has a couple of wins in the southeast at comparable events – The Heritage and St. Jude Classic. If you are looking for a low owned play to move off of McDowell or Sam Saunders, Gay presents an interesting high upside option.

Automatic Fades

Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.

Rory McIlroy – $11,500

This is a tough one, and a very risky fade decision, but Rory’s putting struggles so far are a huge red flag. Of course he can show up and win this event by a handful of shots, but right now it seems more likely he will be fighting to crack the top 20. I have zero confidence when he lines up over a 10 footer for par – and if he finds the water on a few holes he will have plenty of these types of putts. What Rory needs right now to get the ball rolling in North America is a birdiefest – say next week at the WGC – Mexico.

Russell Knox – $9,000

Knox fits this course well and has had success at it in the past. But at $9,000 and heading towards being one of the more chakly plays on the week, it has to be a pass. Knox seems to have found his old form in the 2018 season, but he has also proven missed cuts are still a possibility – check the Waste Management Open. Oh yeah, he also missed the cut here last year too. If Knox were in the mid to high $7,000 range, he would be a more intriguing option. But his price tag is a huge deterrent.

Tiger Woods – $8,200

This is going to become repetitive if Tiger doesn’t start getting priced fairly. $8,200 is a steep price to pay for Woods, who is coming off of an ugly missed cut at Riviera. Tiger is spraying the ball all over the yard and that will not fly at PGA National. If his off the tee game remains the same as it has been, expect a ton of big numbers and another trunk slam on Friday.

So, you got burned?

Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.

Daniel Berger – $8,800

Daniel Berger was so bad last week, that it will be easy for him to turn the page in move on. It’s like losing a close football game compared to a blow out – the sting just lasts longer when you come up just short. Berger has two top 15 finishes at the Honda Classic in three attempts. He is also one of the best ball strikers, Par 4 scorers and long iron players in the field. There are so many solid options at the top that will make it easy to go overweight on the 10% owned Berger.

Ollie Schniederjans – $8,400

Ollie was one of the highest owned golfers across the board at the Genesis Open and his missed cut left a sour taste in a lot of people’s mouths. Despite his missed cut, Ollie’s price jumped up $800 and becomes an even bigger risk. His ball striking ability should lend itself to the tough PGA National track. Even if the wind picks up, Ollie’s piercingly low ball flight will be an advantage.

Keegan Bradley – $7,700

Keegan has an interesting past at this event. He has missed the last three cuts, but way back in 2014 and 2013 he finished T12 and T4. Add on the fact that he missed the cut last week at the Genesis Open and people will be definitely hesitant to roster him. However, his ball striking game over his past 12 rounds has been incredible, and it’s been his putter (no surprise) that has been letting him down. If his putter shows up this week, even if it is just field average, Keegan should have no problem finishing inside the top 15.

Thomas Pieters – $7,500

Remember when everyone was fired up for Pieters last week?! Yeah, that was fun. What wasn’t fun was the 77 he shot on Sunday to sink to bottom of the leaderboard. People were clearly stung by this as his tag count on Fanshare Sports has plummeted in comparison to last week. He is still one of the best ball strikers in this field and has an insane amount of talent. If he can keep it together between the ears for four rounds, there’s no reason why he cannot contend.

Thanks for reading the Honda Classic preview article! Follow me on Twitter for more DFS and golf betting talk! Also, don’t forget to check out FanShareSports.com to get a full look at who the DFS golf community is talking about this week!

Good luck this week everybody!!

Genesis Open Preview – DraftKings

Genesis Open Preview – DraftKings

What’s going on fantasy golf fans?! Congrats to Ted Potter Jr.!! The dude showed he owns a big pair of stones holding off DJ, Day and Mickelson in the final round on route to his second career victory. We have finally made it past the Pro-Am portion of the schedule and we should all be fired up for this week’s event!

It’s time for the Genesis Open hosted by Riviera Country Club. Hollywood welcomes a very strong field for the last event of the West Coast swing. Riviera, one the premier stops on the schedule, is a 7,300 Par 71. It has one of the more famous holes on tour, the Par 4 10th – the ultimate risk reward hole. It has played host to this event for over 40 years, giving us a good idea of what it has to offer. The greens at Riviera are Poa, pretty normal for California courses and is something that can be used as a tiebreaker when deciding on certain golfers.

Bombers will have an advantage here, not very surprising. Added length off the tee is crucial for having easier to hit irons into these greens – not saying anything new here. The majority of approach shots hit into the greens are from 175 yards and out, putting a greater emphasis on ball strikers. There have been some shorter hitters who have won here, but those golfers, Stricker, Baddaley, Haas, are all great around the green and is the only way shorter golfers will have a chance. Due to the fact that around the green game and putting is just so much more difficult to predict than ball striking, favoring a golfer known for their iron play seems like the stronger option.

Stats for the Week

SG: Ball Striking

Birdie or Better Gained

P4:450-500

Driving Distance

Proximity 175-200

Previous Winners

2017 – Dustin Johnson (-17)

2016 – Bubba Watson (-15)

2015 – James Hahn (-6)

2014 – Bubba Watson (-15)

2013 – John Merrick (-11)

Alright, let’s get to the picks!

Staples

My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.

Dustin Johnson – $11,900

Not going to spend too much of your time pumping the tires of the best golfer in the world who has dominated this event the past five years. DJ won here last year, has four straight top fives and is coming off of a runner up finish at Pebble. His price tag could deter some stupid people away, but he is clearly the lock of all locks. There are some value plays that can be found in order to squeeze DJ into your lineups. The only way DJ doesn’t make it into the majority of my lineups is if we have another “falling down the stairs” incident.

Tommy Fleetwood – $9,500

Jump on the Fleetwood bandwagon! It’s getting a little full right now but it should be a great time. Fleetwood is making his first start in the States in 2018 after a very successful Middle East lap. He won in Abu Dhabi and finished T6 in Dubai. His ball striking skills are electric, some of, if not the best in the world. He pounds greens in regulation and is a fantastic putter. Fleetwood has all the tools to win at Riviera.

Chez Reavie – $8,000

I missed the wagon on Chez last week after he followed up his Waste Management runner-up with another second place finish. Chez has clearly found something in his game and it is firing on all cylinders right now. He is playing in late pairing on Sundays, gaining valuable experience in high pressure situation. For a shorter hitter, he consistently is gaining strokes off the tee that will translate really well at Riviera. Chez has made 19 straight cuts and leaving him out of your cash lineup at $8,000 would be a huge mistake.

Charles Howell III – $7,300

In a week where most of the pricing is spot on, seeing Charles Howell at $7,300 was an obvious mistake. Howell is a previous winner of this event and is a known West Coast monster, consistently making cuts and playing his best golf of the season in Cali. He came T15 at this event last season, finished T6 at the Farmers his last time out and has said on a recent Tour Junkies interview how much he loves this course. He is a lock for cash and gives you so much cap flexibility.

James Hahn – $7,100

This is the price we want to see Hahn at! I feel like I have mentioned James Hahn in my articles more than anyone this season, but rarely do we see a golfer’s price jump around so much. When he is expensive, fade. When he is cheap, showing consistency AND at a course he has won at before, go all-in. He has made his five cuts in 2018 and ranks 3rd in my weighted stat model over the past 12 rounds. He ranks 7th in SG:BS over that time. Low risk, high reward is what Hahn brings to the table this week.

Genesis Open Interactive Data

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Perfect Pivots

Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.

Jordan Spieth – $11,300

With early indications that Dustin Johnson’s ownership is going to exceed 30%, that leaves Jordan Spieth as the elite golfer who will benefit ownership wise. For people making only a handful of lineups, Spieth is going to get left behind for those opting to go with DJ. Spieth finally gained strokes putting last week (although we only have Pebble Beach shotlink data) which is encouraging. He also has a T4 under his belt at Riviera back in 2015. Fading DJ isn’t wise, but make sure you also have a good mix of Spieth incase this is the week he puts it all together.

Branden Grace – $9,000

Branden Grace had a solid showing at Pebble, gaining strokes in all categories on route to a T20 finish. He led the field in greens in regulation, failing to convert some of those chances into a few extra birdies. Overall, his first start on American soil in 2018 was solid, and expect that to continue this week. $9,000 is a lot to pay for a non-sexy option and everyone will be finding the extra $500 to jump up to Fleetwood. Grace makes sense here as a shorter hitter who has the short game to contend here, similar to a Stricker or Haas type.

Charl Schwartzel – $7,800

Another South African makes the list as a pivot option. This is the first we have seen of Charl this season as he makes his way over to the States to gear up for Augusta. Charl has zero tags on FanShare Sports and is wedged in between Chez Reavie, Brendan Steele, and Thomas Pieters, all of whom are inside the top five most tagged early on this week. Charl missed the cut here last year, but he does have two top fives at this event in the past five years.

Patrick Cantlay – $7,600

It seems as though people are over Patrick Cantlay. He was suppose to come out this season and put his name in the mix as a top 10ish player in the world, and the results just haven’t been there. He doesn’t have a single tag on FanShare Sports, and is priced right below the very popular Thomas Pieters. Cantlay got out of the gates quickly last week, but faded as the week went on. As a tournament option, there aren’t many guys in the mid $7,00 range who offer his upside at a reduced ownership.

Jhonattan Vegas – $7,200

Vegas is surrounded by the likes of Charley Hoffman, Charles Howell and Sang-Moon Bae, and because he has been MIA for a few weeks, nobody is paying attention to him. Aside from his missed cut at the Farmers, Vegas has put together some great results early this season. Vegas came T15 here last year and has made the cut each of his last three tries. Expect Vegas to fly way under the radar.

Automatic Fades

Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.

Justin Thomas – $10,700

Taking a stand at the top of the board and leaving Justin Thomas out of my build. It’s always a risky endeavor to do this, as it has burned me in the past, but JT’s history here isn’t great. He has failed to finish inside the top 35 in three attempts and doesn’t have a top 10 since his win in Korea. I know any given week JT can show up and win, but I’m going all in on the fact that this won’t be that week.

Tiger Woods – $8,800

Tiger is in the field once again and just like the last time he showed up, isn’t worth the price. A steep price tag made a bit more sense at Torrey Pines, a course he had won at eight times. But oddly enough, Tiger has never won at Riviera, the course he made his debut in as a 16-year old. To be priced $8,800 after the driving display he put on at Torrey is ludacris. I’ll be cheering for Tiger, but not because I am backing him financially.

Beau Hossler – $7,700

It has now been a couple of weeks in a row where we see Beau Hossler’s name creep up to the top of the leaderboard. He held a share of the lead early last week, before crumbling on the weekend shooting 74-76. Hossler is still way to expensive for my blood in a field of this strength. He would be a much better flier if he were say, $500 cheaper.

Adam Scott – $7,400

Scott is lost and I am not willing to risk trying to find him this week. He missed the cut in terrible fashion last week, finishing down with some of the typical suspects of the week, aka. Mike Weir. Scott has had a lot of success at Riviera in the past and does have a nice price tag, but it still isn’t enough to consider rostering him. Let the fish flock to the popular Scott at $7,400.

So, you got burned?

Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.

Rory McIlroy – $11,100

Rory’s outing at Pebble was not the result we were all hoping for and expecting. His missed cut was driven by his struggles off the tee and inability to putt. Rory had never played in the Pro-Am, which may have added another layer to his poor performance. Now that the buzz of everyone claiming Rory is back is over, this weeks is a perfect week to stay on board. This course seems like a perfect fit for his length and ball striking. He has only played here once, in 2016 where he came T20. So much ownership this week is going to land on DJ, McIlroy shouldn’t exceed 20%.

Matt Kuchar – $8,400

Those who backed Kuchar in cash last week got an incredible sweat on Saturday, saved by the cut moving to -3 late in the day. Kuchar should have missed the cut, and even though he did, he didn’t really do anything on Sunday to make it worth it. Kuch continues to make cut after cut, is priced only $8,400 and the Genesis Open is an event he has played solid at the last two years. Not the longest guy on tour, but he does rank 2nd in Par 4 scoring from 450-500 yards over his past 12 rounds in this field.

Austin Cook – $7,300

Cook was the chalk of all chalk last week being priced only $7,000 and making all of his cuts this season. This week, Cook has his price increased $300 after his first missed cut in 2018. No one is going to be eager to get back on the Cook wagon at an event he has never played before in a loaded field. He really struggled with his approach game last week, losing 3.1 strokes, by far his worst showing this season. I do not expect that trend to continue and it was encouraging to see him fair decently well on the Poa greens last week.

Thanks for reading the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am preview article! Follow me on Twitter for more DFS and golf betting talk! Also, don’t forget to check out FanShareSports.com to get a full look at who the DFS golf community is talking about this week!

Good luck this week everybody!!