Honda Classic Preview – DraftKings

Honda Classic Preview – DraftKings

What’s going on fantasy golf fans?! The west coast swing has come to an end and has already provided us with some fantastic tournaments with big time winners. But now it’s time to head to the east coast, and with that comes the early morning Thursday tilt!

The pros head to Palm Beach Gardens, Florida for the Honda Classic. Hosted at the PGA National Champion Course, this 7,100 yard Par 70 is one of the toughest challenges presented on the PGA Tour. With tons of water and bunkers placed almost everywhere, all aspects of a golfer’s game will be tested. Famously known for the “Bear Trap” – a three hole stretch on the back nine consisting of two tough Par 3s and a Par 4. Golfers who can survive this three hole stretch for all four days will easily find themselves at the top of the leaderboard late on Sunday. Accuracy off the tee will be crucial and plenty of guys will be using less than driver off the tee. That means whoever is sticking their approach shots will have a leg up on the competition. Another note – golfing on the east coast means we will be saying goodbye to poa greens and hello to bermuda grass!

Stats for the Week

SG: Ball Striking

SG: Par 4s

SG: Par 5s

Good Drives Gained

Proximity 175+

SG: Putting – Bermuda

Previous Winners

2017 – Rickie Fowler (-12)

2016 – Adam Scott (-9)

2015 – Padraig Harrington (-6)

2014 – Russell Henley (-8)

2013 – Michael Thompson (-9)

Alright, let’s get to the picks!

Staples

My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.

Sergio Garcia – $10,500

This is the first we get to see of Sergio in the 2018 season, on the PGA Tour at least. While we were sweating out the CareerBuilder Challenge Sergio was busy in Singapore winning a golf tournament. I have no concerns with Sergio making his North American start – for all we know he has been in the States for weeks already. He is the ideal golfer we are looking to target at the top. Accurate off the tee, elite iron play and a proven winner on US soil. The discount you get going with Sergio over Rory can drastically improve the makeup of your lineup, while still getting an elite player in the field. Garcia is my pick of one and done this week as well. Add in the recent announcement made that he and his wife have a baby on the way, and we have the complete “baby swag” package.

Tommy Fleetwood – $9,400

Being on Fleetwood last week was a little frustrating as he was unable to get anything going all week. His T37 finish was less than what we hoped for, but he did gain strokes both off the tee and on approaches at the Genesis. Fairways and close approaches are our targets this week and there are few in the world who are better than Tommy. I am sticking with him at a similar price, in the hopes his ownership takes a hit after last weeks results.

Chesson Hadley – $7,700

Hadley’s impressive run continues. He has made every cut of the 2018 season with four top five finishes. Chesson has two top 25 finishes in three attempts at the Honda Classic, but has never entered this event hitting the ball as well as he is now. Over his past 24 rounds, Hadley ranks 1st in SG:Ball Striking, 16th on Par 4s and 11 on Par 5s. He is crushing it tee to green and sets up perfectly to make another serious run to pick up his second career PGA Tour victory.

Patton Kizzire – $7,300

Kizzire is already a two time winner this season and is priced as if he is struggling to make cuts consistently. He hasn’t played in a couple of weeks, noting that he hates putting on poa greens, which is likely why he sat out some of the California events. Returning to an area of the country he feels more comfortable in, with the confidence he can win on tour is a dangerous combination. He ranks 3rd in my weight stats rankings and his price is just way too good to pass up.

Sean O’Hair – $6,800

Sean O’Hair’s recent results may not be that impressive, but he is making cuts which is all you can ask for out of a guy priced below $7K. Last week, O’Hair LOST 7.8 stokes around the green, by far the worst performance of his career and he still made the cut. The Honda Classic is an event he had had a ton of success at, making four of his last five cut and finishing inside the top 25 all four times. $6,800 is an absolute steal for a golfer who is showing solid cut making form and is about to tee it up at a course he is very familiar with.

Honda Classic Interactive Data

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Perfect Pivots

Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.

Patrick Reed – $9,100

Just a couple weeks ago, people were all over Patrick Reed with tons of people using him in One and Done formats. Now, he only has TWO tags on FanShareSports! I am far from a Patrick Reed guy, but even that seems insane. He will easily be the lowest owned golfer in the $9K and above range. Reed has made three of his last four cuts here, including a T7 in 2015. Taking the driver out of his hands will be a good thing for Reed, who has the potential to win some people some serious money.

Kevin Kisner – $8,500

Finally we get Kevin Kisner back on bermuda greens. Kisner has never had a ton of success on the west coast, so his mediocre results to start the season are someone expected. Kisner has made three straight cuts here, but unfortunately his best finish is a T48. Regardless, he has the ball striking ability to compete here and if putting plays a key role come Sunday, Kisner’s elite use of the flat stick will be important. With only six tags on FanShare, and surrounded by Ollie and Dufner, Kisner won’t exceed 10% ownership.

Bernd Wiesberger – $7,600

If you have followed Bernd’s career at all both in Europe and the States, you will know he is the definition of a grinder. Put Wiesberger on a tough track where pars are a good score, and he will be in the mix. Forcing him to attack pins and rack up the birdies is not Bernd’s game. Luckily, PGA National is one of those tough courses where avoiding bogeys and big numbers is important. Wiesberger is getting his feet wet on North American soil, and only has four tags on FanShare Sports. There are a ton of chalky options around him that will leave Bernd in the 5% owned range.

Brian Gay – $7,100

Brian Gay pops in my model, mainly because he is the best golfer in this field when it comes to putting on Bermuda. Gay is a Florida Gator who has a ton of experience golfing in Florida conditions. He has a couple of wins in the southeast at comparable events – The Heritage and St. Jude Classic. If you are looking for a low owned play to move off of McDowell or Sam Saunders, Gay presents an interesting high upside option.

Automatic Fades

Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.

Rory McIlroy – $11,500

This is a tough one, and a very risky fade decision, but Rory’s putting struggles so far are a huge red flag. Of course he can show up and win this event by a handful of shots, but right now it seems more likely he will be fighting to crack the top 20. I have zero confidence when he lines up over a 10 footer for par – and if he finds the water on a few holes he will have plenty of these types of putts. What Rory needs right now to get the ball rolling in North America is a birdiefest – say next week at the WGC – Mexico.

Russell Knox – $9,000

Knox fits this course well and has had success at it in the past. But at $9,000 and heading towards being one of the more chakly plays on the week, it has to be a pass. Knox seems to have found his old form in the 2018 season, but he has also proven missed cuts are still a possibility – check the Waste Management Open. Oh yeah, he also missed the cut here last year too. If Knox were in the mid to high $7,000 range, he would be a more intriguing option. But his price tag is a huge deterrent.

Tiger Woods – $8,200

This is going to become repetitive if Tiger doesn’t start getting priced fairly. $8,200 is a steep price to pay for Woods, who is coming off of an ugly missed cut at Riviera. Tiger is spraying the ball all over the yard and that will not fly at PGA National. If his off the tee game remains the same as it has been, expect a ton of big numbers and another trunk slam on Friday.

So, you got burned?

Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.

Daniel Berger – $8,800

Daniel Berger was so bad last week, that it will be easy for him to turn the page in move on. It’s like losing a close football game compared to a blow out – the sting just lasts longer when you come up just short. Berger has two top 15 finishes at the Honda Classic in three attempts. He is also one of the best ball strikers, Par 4 scorers and long iron players in the field. There are so many solid options at the top that will make it easy to go overweight on the 10% owned Berger.

Ollie Schniederjans – $8,400

Ollie was one of the highest owned golfers across the board at the Genesis Open and his missed cut left a sour taste in a lot of people’s mouths. Despite his missed cut, Ollie’s price jumped up $800 and becomes an even bigger risk. His ball striking ability should lend itself to the tough PGA National track. Even if the wind picks up, Ollie’s piercingly low ball flight will be an advantage.

Keegan Bradley – $7,700

Keegan has an interesting past at this event. He has missed the last three cuts, but way back in 2014 and 2013 he finished T12 and T4. Add on the fact that he missed the cut last week at the Genesis Open and people will be definitely hesitant to roster him. However, his ball striking game over his past 12 rounds has been incredible, and it’s been his putter (no surprise) that has been letting him down. If his putter shows up this week, even if it is just field average, Keegan should have no problem finishing inside the top 15.

Thomas Pieters – $7,500

Remember when everyone was fired up for Pieters last week?! Yeah, that was fun. What wasn’t fun was the 77 he shot on Sunday to sink to bottom of the leaderboard. People were clearly stung by this as his tag count on Fanshare Sports has plummeted in comparison to last week. He is still one of the best ball strikers in this field and has an insane amount of talent. If he can keep it together between the ears for four rounds, there’s no reason why he cannot contend.

Thanks for reading the Honda Classic preview article! Follow me on Twitter for more DFS and golf betting talk! Also, don’t forget to check out FanShareSports.com to get a full look at who the DFS golf community is talking about this week!

Good luck this week everybody!!

Genesis Open Preview – DraftKings

Genesis Open Preview – DraftKings

What’s going on fantasy golf fans?! Congrats to Ted Potter Jr.!! The dude showed he owns a big pair of stones holding off DJ, Day and Mickelson in the final round on route to his second career victory. We have finally made it past the Pro-Am portion of the schedule and we should all be fired up for this week’s event!

It’s time for the Genesis Open hosted by Riviera Country Club. Hollywood welcomes a very strong field for the last event of the West Coast swing. Riviera, one the premier stops on the schedule, is a 7,300 Par 71. It has one of the more famous holes on tour, the Par 4 10th – the ultimate risk reward hole. It has played host to this event for over 40 years, giving us a good idea of what it has to offer. The greens at Riviera are Poa, pretty normal for California courses and is something that can be used as a tiebreaker when deciding on certain golfers.

Bombers will have an advantage here, not very surprising. Added length off the tee is crucial for having easier to hit irons into these greens – not saying anything new here. The majority of approach shots hit into the greens are from 175 yards and out, putting a greater emphasis on ball strikers. There have been some shorter hitters who have won here, but those golfers, Stricker, Baddaley, Haas, are all great around the green and is the only way shorter golfers will have a chance. Due to the fact that around the green game and putting is just so much more difficult to predict than ball striking, favoring a golfer known for their iron play seems like the stronger option.

Stats for the Week

SG: Ball Striking

Birdie or Better Gained

P4:450-500

Driving Distance

Proximity 175-200

Previous Winners

2017 – Dustin Johnson (-17)

2016 – Bubba Watson (-15)

2015 – James Hahn (-6)

2014 – Bubba Watson (-15)

2013 – John Merrick (-11)

Alright, let’s get to the picks!

Staples

My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.

Dustin Johnson – $11,900

Not going to spend too much of your time pumping the tires of the best golfer in the world who has dominated this event the past five years. DJ won here last year, has four straight top fives and is coming off of a runner up finish at Pebble. His price tag could deter some stupid people away, but he is clearly the lock of all locks. There are some value plays that can be found in order to squeeze DJ into your lineups. The only way DJ doesn’t make it into the majority of my lineups is if we have another “falling down the stairs” incident.

Tommy Fleetwood – $9,500

Jump on the Fleetwood bandwagon! It’s getting a little full right now but it should be a great time. Fleetwood is making his first start in the States in 2018 after a very successful Middle East lap. He won in Abu Dhabi and finished T6 in Dubai. His ball striking skills are electric, some of, if not the best in the world. He pounds greens in regulation and is a fantastic putter. Fleetwood has all the tools to win at Riviera.

Chez Reavie – $8,000

I missed the wagon on Chez last week after he followed up his Waste Management runner-up with another second place finish. Chez has clearly found something in his game and it is firing on all cylinders right now. He is playing in late pairing on Sundays, gaining valuable experience in high pressure situation. For a shorter hitter, he consistently is gaining strokes off the tee that will translate really well at Riviera. Chez has made 19 straight cuts and leaving him out of your cash lineup at $8,000 would be a huge mistake.

Charles Howell III – $7,300

In a week where most of the pricing is spot on, seeing Charles Howell at $7,300 was an obvious mistake. Howell is a previous winner of this event and is a known West Coast monster, consistently making cuts and playing his best golf of the season in Cali. He came T15 at this event last season, finished T6 at the Farmers his last time out and has said on a recent Tour Junkies interview how much he loves this course. He is a lock for cash and gives you so much cap flexibility.

James Hahn – $7,100

This is the price we want to see Hahn at! I feel like I have mentioned James Hahn in my articles more than anyone this season, but rarely do we see a golfer’s price jump around so much. When he is expensive, fade. When he is cheap, showing consistency AND at a course he has won at before, go all-in. He has made his five cuts in 2018 and ranks 3rd in my weighted stat model over the past 12 rounds. He ranks 7th in SG:BS over that time. Low risk, high reward is what Hahn brings to the table this week.

Genesis Open Interactive Data

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Perfect Pivots

Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.

Jordan Spieth – $11,300

With early indications that Dustin Johnson’s ownership is going to exceed 30%, that leaves Jordan Spieth as the elite golfer who will benefit ownership wise. For people making only a handful of lineups, Spieth is going to get left behind for those opting to go with DJ. Spieth finally gained strokes putting last week (although we only have Pebble Beach shotlink data) which is encouraging. He also has a T4 under his belt at Riviera back in 2015. Fading DJ isn’t wise, but make sure you also have a good mix of Spieth incase this is the week he puts it all together.

Branden Grace – $9,000

Branden Grace had a solid showing at Pebble, gaining strokes in all categories on route to a T20 finish. He led the field in greens in regulation, failing to convert some of those chances into a few extra birdies. Overall, his first start on American soil in 2018 was solid, and expect that to continue this week. $9,000 is a lot to pay for a non-sexy option and everyone will be finding the extra $500 to jump up to Fleetwood. Grace makes sense here as a shorter hitter who has the short game to contend here, similar to a Stricker or Haas type.

Charl Schwartzel – $7,800

Another South African makes the list as a pivot option. This is the first we have seen of Charl this season as he makes his way over to the States to gear up for Augusta. Charl has zero tags on FanShare Sports and is wedged in between Chez Reavie, Brendan Steele, and Thomas Pieters, all of whom are inside the top five most tagged early on this week. Charl missed the cut here last year, but he does have two top fives at this event in the past five years.

Patrick Cantlay – $7,600

It seems as though people are over Patrick Cantlay. He was suppose to come out this season and put his name in the mix as a top 10ish player in the world, and the results just haven’t been there. He doesn’t have a single tag on FanShare Sports, and is priced right below the very popular Thomas Pieters. Cantlay got out of the gates quickly last week, but faded as the week went on. As a tournament option, there aren’t many guys in the mid $7,00 range who offer his upside at a reduced ownership.

Jhonattan Vegas – $7,200

Vegas is surrounded by the likes of Charley Hoffman, Charles Howell and Sang-Moon Bae, and because he has been MIA for a few weeks, nobody is paying attention to him. Aside from his missed cut at the Farmers, Vegas has put together some great results early this season. Vegas came T15 here last year and has made the cut each of his last three tries. Expect Vegas to fly way under the radar.

Automatic Fades

Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.

Justin Thomas – $10,700

Taking a stand at the top of the board and leaving Justin Thomas out of my build. It’s always a risky endeavor to do this, as it has burned me in the past, but JT’s history here isn’t great. He has failed to finish inside the top 35 in three attempts and doesn’t have a top 10 since his win in Korea. I know any given week JT can show up and win, but I’m going all in on the fact that this won’t be that week.

Tiger Woods – $8,800

Tiger is in the field once again and just like the last time he showed up, isn’t worth the price. A steep price tag made a bit more sense at Torrey Pines, a course he had won at eight times. But oddly enough, Tiger has never won at Riviera, the course he made his debut in as a 16-year old. To be priced $8,800 after the driving display he put on at Torrey is ludacris. I’ll be cheering for Tiger, but not because I am backing him financially.

Beau Hossler – $7,700

It has now been a couple of weeks in a row where we see Beau Hossler’s name creep up to the top of the leaderboard. He held a share of the lead early last week, before crumbling on the weekend shooting 74-76. Hossler is still way to expensive for my blood in a field of this strength. He would be a much better flier if he were say, $500 cheaper.

Adam Scott – $7,400

Scott is lost and I am not willing to risk trying to find him this week. He missed the cut in terrible fashion last week, finishing down with some of the typical suspects of the week, aka. Mike Weir. Scott has had a lot of success at Riviera in the past and does have a nice price tag, but it still isn’t enough to consider rostering him. Let the fish flock to the popular Scott at $7,400.

So, you got burned?

Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.

Rory McIlroy – $11,100

Rory’s outing at Pebble was not the result we were all hoping for and expecting. His missed cut was driven by his struggles off the tee and inability to putt. Rory had never played in the Pro-Am, which may have added another layer to his poor performance. Now that the buzz of everyone claiming Rory is back is over, this weeks is a perfect week to stay on board. This course seems like a perfect fit for his length and ball striking. He has only played here once, in 2016 where he came T20. So much ownership this week is going to land on DJ, McIlroy shouldn’t exceed 20%.

Matt Kuchar – $8,400

Those who backed Kuchar in cash last week got an incredible sweat on Saturday, saved by the cut moving to -3 late in the day. Kuchar should have missed the cut, and even though he did, he didn’t really do anything on Sunday to make it worth it. Kuch continues to make cut after cut, is priced only $8,400 and the Genesis Open is an event he has played solid at the last two years. Not the longest guy on tour, but he does rank 2nd in Par 4 scoring from 450-500 yards over his past 12 rounds in this field.

Austin Cook – $7,300

Cook was the chalk of all chalk last week being priced only $7,000 and making all of his cuts this season. This week, Cook has his price increased $300 after his first missed cut in 2018. No one is going to be eager to get back on the Cook wagon at an event he has never played before in a loaded field. He really struggled with his approach game last week, losing 3.1 strokes, by far his worst showing this season. I do not expect that trend to continue and it was encouraging to see him fair decently well on the Poa greens last week.

Thanks for reading the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am preview article! Follow me on Twitter for more DFS and golf betting talk! Also, don’t forget to check out FanShareSports.com to get a full look at who the DFS golf community is talking about this week!

Good luck this week everybody!!

AT&T Pebble Beach Preview – DraftKings

AT&T Pebble Beach Preview – DraftKings

What’s going on fantasy golf fans?! Did you survive the Waste Management Open? Hope you got a piece of the recommended Gary Woodland and helped increase the bankroll for another doozy of an event.

We move onto one of the more famous tournaments on the PGA Tour schedule – the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Unfortunately, it’s a non-traditional event with a 54 hole cut, where only the top 60 and ties will move on after the players play three different courses. The rotation will be Pebble Beach (Par 72), Monterey Peninsula (71), and Spyglass Hill (72). All three courses are similar in length, ranging around 6,800 yards. The extended cut will put more golfers in play this week, limiting the risk of those wildy variant golfers we love. Ball striking will once again be at a premium. With 54 holes guaranteed, golfers giving themselves more scoring opportunities will eventually rise to the top. It’s difficult to come up with unique stats that can cover all three courses, so sticking guys who have shown solid tee to green games seems logical. The Par 5s are very reachable at all of these courses as well, making birdies and eagles even more abundant.

Stats for the Week

SG: Approach

SG: Par 5

Birdie or Better Gained

SG: Off the Tee

Proximity 150-200

Previous Winners

2017 – Jordan Spieth (-19)

2016 – Vaughn Taylor (-17)

2015 – Brandt Snedeker (-22)

2014 – Jimmy Walker (-11)

2013 – Brandt Snedeker (-19)

Alright, let’s get to the picks!

Staples

My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.

Dustin Johnson – $11,700

What is not to love about DJ this week. He is super expensive, but it is warranted when you look at all of our favorite factors. DJ has three top 5s in the past four years here and won in 2010. He won his last time out on the PGA Tour at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. He also played well in Abu Dhabi, coming T9. By now, you know all too well about DJ’s stats that going over them is useless. He is elite in all aspects of the game. There is plenty of value options this week that makes his enormous salary still easy to fit in.

Rory McIlroy – $11,100

I was hoping Rory would be slightly cheaper this week, maybe below Jordan Spieth. But it’s not, and perhaps that will keep his ownership in check a bit more. Rory is clearly back and he has shown that with two stellar outings in the middle east – T3 and a runner up. Taking a couple of months off to rest and get healthy certainly worked. People will be excited to roster Rory, but with the other elite options, I cannot see his ownership exceed 25%.

Patrick Cantlay – $8,900

Cantlay infrequent schedule is off to an expected start so far, limiting his hype. He has only played in two events, with only one top 15 at the Tournament of Champions. It seems as though people were expecting him to have a win already, as he is garnering zero attention on FanShare Sports. Cantlay has all the tools to pick up his second career win this week. He ranks 8th in the field on SG:Par 5 and 11th in SG:Ball striking over his last 24 rounds. He finished T9 here way back in 2013 before he became the elite golfer he is today.

Brandt Snedeker – $8,100

Sneds is a two time winner of this event and is only $8,100. Sure, one of the times he one half the field got whipped out due to gale force winds, but he still thrives at Pebble and will likely do so again. Sneds has improved upon his results in each tournament this season, capped off with a T23 at the Waste Management Open last week. I have mentioned this in previous articles – Sneds is still searching for his Masters invite and a win this week would have that invitation in the mail on Monday.

J.B. Holmes – $7,400

Holmes was hated two weeks ago, missed the cut at the Waste Management Open, and now returns to a tournament he has had tremendous success at. He has gained the 10th most strokes on the field at this event over the past five years. Holmes has made five straight cuts, including a T10 in 2015 and T11 in 2016. Holmes is only a week removed from a 4th place finish at the Farmers.

Austin Cook – $7,000

Cook is one of two major mispricings this week, becoming an incredible value play. Cook has failed to miss a cut in his rookie season, 8/8, and has already picked up a win. He played decent at the WMO, coming T31 and gaining strokes in all five major categories. Cook is great birdie maker, dominates Par 5s and hits plenty of greens in regulation. One of two locks for cash this week.

Rafa Cabrera-Bello – $6,900

The next lock in cash is Rafa Cabrera-Bello. How this guy is only $6,900 is beyond me. He is currently the 21st ranked player in the world, but is priced as someone who is outside the top 200. His recent form in Europe is excellent. He game T6 in Dubai two weeks ago, and ended 2017 with a T2 in Hong Kong. Just like Cook, Bello is a great ball striker and will have a ton of birdie looks this week. His price tag is a joke and needs to be taken advantage of.

AT&T Pebble Beach Interactive Data

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Perfect Pivots

Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.

Branden Grace – $9,100

Branden Grace will never be one of the more popular options, especially at $9,100. Since the last time he was eligible for a PGA DFS slate, Grace has gone out and won the Nedbank Golf Challenge, and finished 2nd at another South African event. Sure, the fields are poor, but the form is there for Grace. He hasn’t played the Pro-am in the last five years, but that won’t scare me off of a likely sub 10% owned, high caliber golfer.

Kevin Kisner – $8,200

It only took a couple weeks off for people to forget about Kevin Kisner. Currently sitting at zero tags on FanShare Sports, it will be tough for Kisner to gain traction this week. He hasn’t played in a while, and when he did play the results were mediocre at best. Add the fact that Brandt Snedeker is the golfer priced directly below Kisner, and you have the makings of a sub 10% week. Kisner finished T10 at this event last year and has the tee to green game to repeat that result.

Charley Hoffman – $7,300

According to FanShareSports.com, Kevin Streelman is out of the gates first toward being the chalk in the low $7,000s. Streelman has seven tags compared to Charley Hoffman’s one. Hoffman is underpriced once again, and early trend in 2018. He does have terrible course history, missing the cut both times he’s teed it up. However, his recent results suggest he has all aspects of his game clicking. He ranks 16th in my weighted stat model and will be easy to be overweight on when his ownership is below 15%.

Sean O’Hair – $6,700

With some early chalk forming in the mid $6,000s with Russell Henley, Russell Knox and Billy Horschel, O’Hair seems like a solid pivot option. O’Hair is a cut maker and a golfer who tends to play well at certain events. The Pebble Beach Pro-Am is one of these events. He has made four of five cuts, including a T16 and T29. These results don’t jump off the page, but if you want to make a move at the bottom of the board, rostering a guy who will likely play all four rounds seems like a valid option.

Tom Hoge – $6,600

Just like O’Hair, Hoge becomes and intriguing option due to the likely chalk in the mid $6,000s. He ranks 13th in my weighted stat model thanks to having the best strokes gained approach number over the past 12 rounds. He also missed the cut last week at the WMO because his putter did not show up. No one will be on Hoge, despite already recording two top 15s in 2018.

Automatic Fades

Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.

Jon Rahm – $11,400

Taking a stance at the top is hard, but it’s required if you want to take down a large GPP. I’ve been struggling with my player pool becoming too large in the last couple of weeks, so cutting guys out at the top has to be done. This week, it’s Rahm. His price tag is steep, only $300 less than DJ. He has also lost 7.8 strokes combined on approach shots over the last two weeks. His putter saved him at the Waste Management, gaining an unheard of 7.4 shots on the green. If the putter doesn’t show up, and his approach game doesn’t turn around, this could be a disaster in the making.

Adam Scott – $8,700

This is the first we have seen of Adam Scott in 2018. Red flag number one. And when we have seen him he has played terrible. Scott had the worst years of his career in 2017 so it will take some time before people starting feeling comfortable with him again. He missed the cut in his last event, the Australian PGA Championship, in a weak field in his native country. There are too many question marks surrounding Scott to pay this steep price.

James Hahn – $8,400

There is no doubt Hahn has been playing well this year. He has made every cut this season, finished 2nd at the Sony and came T11 last week at the WMO. However, Hahn is one of the streakiest guys on tour and I’ve said this before, is a much better play when he is in the high $6,000 range. His tag this week means you are expecting a top 20, which is far from guaranteed with Hahn. He also gained 5.2 strokes putting last week, inflating his finishing position.

Beau Hossler – $8,300

Everything I just said about Hahn can apply to Beau Hossler. He has been making cuts, popping into the leaderboard once and a doing it while priced in the low $7,000s. He gained 5.6 strokes on the greens last week on route to a T17. Beau has failed to gain strokes on approaches in his last five events. His $1,300 price jump to go along with his shady recent results is enough to keep me well away from him at Pebble.

This week is one of those weeks where the DraftKings Pricing algorithm decided to take phone it in. Here are a list of golfers I believe are incredibly mispriced and should be played at your own risk.

Sabbatini ($7,700), Watney ($7,700), Piller ($7,600), Putnam ($7,600), Singh ($7,500), Kelly ($7,500), Axley ($7,400), Baddeley ($7,400) and the list continues to go on and on in the $7,000 range.

So, you got burned?

Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.

Jordan Spieth – $10,700

Boring Spieth playing in the wild and crazy atmosphere that was the Waste Management Open didn’t sit right. Highly doubt that had anything to do with his performance, especially because he missed the cut due to his putter. That is now four straight events he has lost strokes putting. It’s mind blowing that someone that is so good with the flat stick can be in a rut for this long. Regardless, Spieth is returning to an event he has dominated at in the past, winning last year and having two other top 10s. He’s cheaper than usual and is a good putting week away from a win.

Shane Lowry – $7,500

Lowry’s missed T65 at the WMO was less than ideal. What was worse was the fact he lost 6.2 strokes on the green, his worst putting performance of his career. Lowry is priced with some of the ugliest names in the field, thanks to DraftKings wonky pricing week. That should give him a slight boost in ownership, but I can see many by-passing this entire range to go find value. Lowry has made three straight cuts at this event, and if the wind picks up, he will gain an advantage on the field.

Brandon Harkins – $7,000

Harkins has turned heads early this season with two top 15 finishes. His missed cut at the Waste Management Open stung DFSers looking to cash in on his hot streak. Typically, low owned guys who burn people are the easiest to move on from. Harkins is in a crowded price range and likely won’t see his ownership exceed 5%. He could easily regain the form he had from a couple of weeks ago and reward those who held tight with another top 20 finish.

Thanks for reading the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am preview article! Follow me on Twitter @EPattersonFS for more DFS and golf betting talk! Also, don’t forget to check out FanShareSports.com to get a full look at who the DFS golf community is talking about this week!

Good luck this week everybody!!

Waste Management Open Preview – DraftKings

Waste Management Open Preview – DraftKings

What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! It sure felt like the 2018 golf season really kicked off last week with an amazing event, a Monday playoff and the (solid) return of Tiger. And lucky for us, we get another strong field for the Waste Management Open. It’s party time!!! Get your six pack of PBR and head to the 16th hole for a week of drunken excitement!

The Waste Management Open will be played at TPC Scottsdale in, you guessed it, Scottsdale, Arizona. The course is a 7,266 yard Par 71, consisting of three very reachable Par 5s. The event is known for its rowdiness, which makes the entire week a great event to watch and follow. TPC Scottsdale is a second shot course, placing a large emphasis on strokes gained approach. The rough isn’t very penalizing, which will put the big stick in most golfer’s hands all weekend. Bombers don’t typically have an advantage here, but length will help on the aforementioned Par 5s. The winning score here has typically lingered in the mid to high teens, with Hideki winning the last two years at -14 and -17. The bermuda grass greens here will help level the playing field, giving guys like Hideki a better chance to contend. Unlike the last few weeks, putting will not be taken into consideration, rather guys who are stripping it with their irons will be heavily focused on.

Stats for the Week

SG: Approach

SG: Par 5

Birdie or Better Gained

SG: Off the Tee

Proximity 150-200

Alright, let’s get to the picks!

Staples

My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.

Hideki Matsuyama – $11,500

This is Hideki’s event. Dominant is the only word that can describe the run Matsuyama has had at the Waste Management Open. In four years he has a T4, T2 and back-to-back wins. He is clearly the favorite to win again, and do not think a three-peat is not a possibility. He finished last week off strong, with a solid 3-under final round, moving him up to this T12 finish. What is odd is that Hideki did most of his damage on the green. Regardless, he cannot be faded this week, even as the most expensive golfer. I would be shocked if he doesn’t finish inside the top five once again.

Jon Rahm – $11,000

Rahm was a contender for the So You Got Burned segment, but there is still too much to love to leave him out of the staples. Rahm had a terrible Sunday round at Torrey Pines, one where he lost 3.2 strokes putting. Taking Rahm off the poa at Torrey and onto the bermuda at Scottsdale can only help. He was at the top of the leaderboard for most of last week, again showing why he had the chance overtaking the #1 ranking in the world. Rahm returns to an event he has played twice, and came T5 at as an amateur. I don’t think returning to the town he went to college in will distract Rahm. He seems hungry and determined to be at the top of the leaderboard each week. I am willing to dismiss one bad round of putting from the insane run of golf Rahm has been playing.

Gary Woodland – $8,600

Woodland comes in ranked 1st in my weighted stats model. His incredible BoB gained and SG: Par 5s over his past 12 rounds puts him at the top. Woodland has followed up his T7 at the Sony with a T12 last week at the Farmers Insurance Open. He now has three straight events gaining strokes on approach shots, and I know I mentioned putting isn’t being considered, but for a notoriously bad putter, Woodland has been lights out with the flat stick as of late. Woodland’s course history is hit or miss, making three of his last five cuts. I’m going to ride the heater Gary is on while others likely move on.

Zach Johnson – $7,700

Zach Johnson has found a lot of consistency in Scottsdale. In his past three trips to the WMO, Johnson has a T10, T14 and T12. Another result like that would be perfect for a $7,700 golfer. ZJ has also been very impressive over his past 12 rounds statistically. He ranks 4th in SG:APP and 8th in BoB Gained. He has also been scoring on Par 5s despite his lack of distance. He is about as safe as they come this week and without Charles Howell in the field, ZJ should fill in perfectly as a cash game lock.

Scott Piercy – $7,500

Scott Piercy has always had the “plays well in the desert” narrative surrounding him in events like the Waste Management Open. It has been a while since you can consider his trip to Scottsdale a success, dating back to his T15 in 2014 and 3rd place finish in 2013. Piercy is coming off one of his best finishes in the last couple of years, a T6 at the CareerBuilder where he gained strokes across the board. He will always be one of the best birdie makers in the field week in and week out. Mix in the fact he ranks 5th in SG:APP and 10th in SG:Par 5s over his past 12 rounds and you have yourself and elite level play.

Emiliano Grillo – $7,200

Grillo had an incredible ball striking week at Torrey Pines on route to a T12 finish. Grillo gained 5.3 shots on approaches, and gained shots in all other categories as well. That is now nine straight made cuts, after he struggled most of 2017. Grillo doesn’t have the length to be considered a bomber, but he does consistently gain strokes off the tee due to his accuracy. He ranks 21st in the field in SG: Par 5 over his last 12 rounds and 8th in SG:Off the Tee. His price tag makes him an amazing cash option and you should feel comfortable knowing you’ll get 72 holes out of Grillo this week.

Waste Management Open Interactive Data

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Perfect Pivots

Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.

Marc Leishman – $9,700

I think people are getting tired of talking and being excited about rostering Marc Leishman. He only has one tag so far, and is trending towards being the lowest owned golfer in the +$9K range. Roster construction will likely have him being passed on often, with most people wanting to jam in one of the five digit golfers. Leish quietly game T8 at the Farmers, gaining 4.2 strokes on approach shots. After missing back-to-back cuts here in 2013 and 2014, Leishman took some time off from this event before returning last year for a T24. He has the ideal game for this course and if he is being ignored, what a perfect time to load up.

Kevin Chappell – $7,700

Chappell seems very under priced at first glance, but when you realize DK factors course history heavily into their pricing, you understand why. Chappell hasn’t had a ton of success at this event, but he has made the cut three out of his last five attempts. Not great. Why Chappell is a great pivot this week is that he should be lower owned, especially priced the same as Zach Johnson. Chappell also lit it up with his irons at the CareerBuilder, gaining 6.9 shots. If that continues in Arizona, he’ll be in the mix on Sunday.

Keegan Bradley – $7,400

Caveat to this is that it is early in the week and popularity can certainly snowball. However, for now, Keegan Bradley doesn’t have a single tag on FanShareSports and is priced the same as Xander Schauffele who has seven. Keegan came 5th last week at Torrey Pines, crushing in on approach shots, gaining 6.2 strokes. I fully expect that iron play to carry over to Scottsdale, an event Bradley has seen some success at in the past. His last three made cuts here have all resulted in top 25 finishes. His price is cheap and putting has been proven to not matter at this event.

Will McGirt – $6,900

It seems like it has been a while since we saw McGirt make a real splash in an event. He did have a couple top 10s in the fall swing season, but his T65 at the Sony definitely didn’t turn any heads. Perhaps flying under the radar this week will be a perfect situation for him. McGirt has zero tags on FanShareSports, despite gaining strokes on approach shots in three straight events. McGirt also loves this course, making the cut five straight seasons, including three top 25 results.

Automatic Fades

Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.

Phil Mickelson – $8,500

If you followed the coverage at all at Torrey, you saw Phil Mickelson, a lot. And what you saw, or at least what I picked up on, was a guy who was hitting the ball all over the yard but putting the lights out. The stats tell a similar story. Phil lost 3.2 strokes off the tee but gained 3.5 strokes putting, on route to his T45 finish. TPC Scottsdale has treated Phil well in the past, but if he is going to rely so heavily on the flat stick again, I cannot swallow the $8,500 price tag he is demanding.

Bubba Watson – $7,500

Bubba has incredible course history at TPC Sawgrass, but he proved last year he is still capable of missing the cut. I guarantee I miss out on Bubba’s rare top 10 that he may or may not post this season, because I will not be on him until he shows a glimpse of form. Unless of course he is sub $7K at Augusta. He missed the cut at the CareerBuilder a couple of weeks ago, his only start in 2018. $7,500 is way to rich for a guy I’m not sure is good at golf anymore.

Luke List – $7,200

Luke List crept his way to the top of the leaderboard last week, finishing in a respectable T12 position. However, he did most of his damage around the green, gaining 3.7 shots. That is something that does not translate very well to TPC Scottsdale, a course that sees a higher scrambling percentage from the top 10 finishers than the average tour event. List comes and goes more than anyone on tour, and if his iron game isn’t on (he’s lost strokes on approaches in five straight events) than he is a very difficult golfer to trust.

So, you got burned?

Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.

Rickie Fowler – $10,400

Last week was a very unfortunate time to load up on Fowler. He missed the cut on the number as the second highest priced golfer. I was high on him because of the fact he wasn’t travelling across the world to play in the event, something he had done in his previous couple of years. Torrey Pines just isn’t Rickie’s course. However, TPC Scottsdale is. He has a 2nd and a T4 here in his last two trips to Arizona. His $1,000 price drop puts us in an even better spot to capitalize on a primetime bounce back opportunity.

Ollie Schniederjans – $7,600

Everyone and their mother was on Ollie last week. He struggled on Thursday, came out hot fire on the front nine Friday, then proceeded to shoot 40 on the back nine to miss the cut. It sucked owning him as your winnings on Friday fluctuated with his performance. Ollie is now $900 cheaper and in a very similar situation. He still continues to gain strokes with his approach shots and should have no issue scoring on these easy Par 5s.

Xander Schauffele – $7,400

Xander was another guy who missed the cut on the number at Torrey when seemingly everyone had some shares of him. Xander’s sophomore season has not gotten off to the start he or any of us would have hoped for – he is 0/3 in top 20s. His price is the most intriguing quality this week, $600 cheaper than last. He won’t see nearly the same ownership as the Farmers either. He should dominate the Par 5s and his putting woes from last week shouldn’t be an issue on the bermuda.

Thanks for reading the Waste Management Open preview article! Follow me on Twitter for more DFS and golf betting talk! Also, don’t forget to check out FanShareSports.com to get a full look at who the DFS golf community is talking about this week!

Good luck this week everybody!!

Farmers Insurance Open Preview – DraftKings

Farmers Insurance Open Preview – DraftKings

What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! Jon Rahm gets it done in La Quinta! I hope everyone loaded up on the obvious pick last week and has some extra cash in the account to blow this week.

To San Diego we go for the Farmers Insurance Open, hosted at the iconic Torrey Pines. There are two courses at Torrey, both telling a completely different story. The North Course will be played once by the golfers in Round 1 or 2, and is a 7,200 yard Par 72. It is the much easier course of the two and golfers will need to get scoring done at the North Course to make the cut. Shout out to Kenny Kim (@KendoVT) for this tidbit – No winner has shot over par in their round at the North since 1983. The South Course is a completely different monster. Stretched out to 7,700 yards, this Par 72 will be played three times by those fortunate to make the cut. Distance will be crucial to getting around the South Course successfully, even though shorter hitters have done well here in the past. Six of the Par 4s at the South are over 450 yards, and even five on the North are over this mark as well. Putting this week is even trickier to try and predict than normal. The North uses bentgrass and the South has poa. Sure, you can use it as a tiebreaker between two golfers, but toss out SG:Putting from your stat models.

Stats for the Week

SG:Ball Striking

SG: Par 4-450-500

Birdie or Better Gained

SG:Par 5s

Bogey Avoidance

Proximity 200+

 Alright, let’s get to the picks!

Staples

My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.

Rickie Fowler – $11,400

Splitting hairs at the top is a tough thing to do, but if I have to take a stand and pick one of these guys to back this week, it’s Rickie Fowler. Obviously Rahm is coming in as the defending champion with incredible form after winning the CareerBuilder, but Fowler is right there with him. His last three finishes are a 2nd, 1st and T4. He decided to skip the trip to Abu Dhabi, as it hasn’t worked for him the last couple of years returning and playing this event – Rickie missed the cut the last two years here. I am hoping that moves people off of Rickie, keeping his ownership in check. Fowler has all the tools to contend here and is my pick to hoist the trophy on Sunday.

Marc Leishman – $9,200

Marc Leishman lands on my radar this week for a couple of reasons. First, he is one of many elite golfers in this field and is priced right at the bottom of them all. There is a clear drop in caliber after the $9,200 Leishman, who has the fewest tags out of any priced above him. That gives me reason to believe his ownership will be reasonable, another reason to jump on board. Leish has a runner up finish at this event back in 2014, so you’d have to think his new and improved game is suited for these tracks. He has the ball striking skills and Par 4 scoring ability that is required to get the job done here.

Tony Finau – $8,700

If Tony Finau is going to pick up that marquee victory in his career, this is the event it is going to happen at. Finau has made the cut at Torrey three straight years, improving on his finish from the prior year each time. Last year, his T4 result was driven by an all around performance, gaining strokes on the field in every category. Finau ranks 10th in SG:Ball Striking in this field over his past 12 rounds, the most important stat I am looking at this week. He shook the rust off at the Sony Open two weeks ago and should be primed for an impressive run this week. He is in serious consideration as a One and Done pick this week.

Jhonattan Vegas – $7,700

Vegas is on a mini heater right now and I’ll be continuing to tag along for the ride. He has a T7 and T11 in his last two trips out, consistency we aren’t use to seeing with Vegas. He has gained strokes in all categories except around the green each of his last two events as well. Jhonny V also has a decent track record at Torrey Pines, making four straight cuts including two top 20 finishes. He has the distance and ball striking skills to keep his solid form rolling, and I’d be shocked if we didn’t see Vegas in the mix on the weekend.

Charley Hoffman – $7,200

During my first pass at the DraftKings pricing, two things immediately stood out. Tiger’s insane price, more to come with that, and Charley Hoffman being incredibly cheap. I had to Google and make sure nothing had happened to Hoffman over the break that might warrant this tag. But nothing – just an error by the DraftKings pricing algorithm. Hoffman has made the cut at this event four of the past five years, and the last time we saw him tee it up he came 2nd at the Hero World Challenge. It would have been nice to see Charley mix in an event between now and then, but at this price, he could have taken a year off, ala TW, and it wouldn’t have mattered.

Farmers Insurance Open Interactive Data

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Perfect Pivots

Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere

Justin Rose – $10,600

It’s in fields like this one where Justin Rose falls under the radar. He hasn’t been DraftKings eligible since the Hero, and really in the spotlight since the WGC-HSBC Champions, which he won. His price tag this week is manageable if you want to pivot off of the top tier of golfers. It wasn’t too long ago Rose was the hottest golfer on the planet. The one concern with Rose is the fact that he played in Abu Dhabi last week and is making the long trip to San Diego. His ownership won’t come close to that of Fowler or Rahm, so that travel concern definitely doesn’t outweigh the potential upside.

Grayson Murray – $8,000

If this is a bombers track and distance is king, why not take a shot with the overpriced Murray? We rarely ever see Grayson priced in the $8,000, but here we are. He played well last week at the CareerBuilder, doing most of his damage on the green on way to a T14 finish. Grayson has zero tags on FanShare Sports, and is priced around Charles Howell and Bud Cauley, two very likely chalky options.

Brendan Steele – $7,800

Steele is a known California guy, yet isn’t on track to see much ownership this week at the Farmers. He only has one tag on FanShare, is priced beside Bud Cauley and Jhonattan Vegas and is coming off of an average finish at the CareerBuilder. Steele has made the cut at Torrey five straight years, although his best finish was last year – T20. Steele has the distance to get around these courses with ease. He’s a reliable cut maker and should be heavily considered for cash lineups.

Lucas Glover – $7,100

The ball striking master Lucas Glove was out in full force at the CareerBuilder. Glover gained 6.6 SG:T2G and of course, lost 4.3 on the greens. That is what we have come to expect with Glove, but the results seem to always be there despite his putting woes. If Glove comes out with that type of tee to green clinic again, $7,200 will be an absolute steal.

Automatic Fades

Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.

Tigers Woods $9,700

HE’S BACK!!! And holy smokes is he over priced. The community as a whole was shocked at his price and it will take some serious Tiger Woods fandom to overcome the $9,700 tag. The risk is insane with Tiger, and it is multiplied at this price. Yes, he has destroyed this course his entire career, but still. He’s played one exhibition tournament in the last year and the Hero World Challenge is nothing compared to the test that Torrey will present. I’m cheering for the comeback to be real as much as the next guy, but it’s a no from me this week.

Patrick Reed – $8,400

I followed Reed’s performance last week at the CareerBuilder closely – he was my terrible One and Done pick. Reed struggled majorly off the tee, with approaches and on the greens. All around, it was a terrible effort and there is no chance I am backing Reed this week with any sort of money. Reed has played this event twice in the past five years, withdrawing once and coming T39 back in 2013. The length will be too much for him and another missed cut seems all too likely.

James Hahn – $7,700

Hahn came to play at the Sony Open, losing in a playoff to Patton Kizzire. He didn’t have a terrible week last week either, but his track record at Torrey is less than stellar. In the past five attempts, Hahn’s best finish is a T41(2015) and has added two missed cuts in there as well. In fields of this strength, Hahn is usually in the low $7,000 range so to see him at this modest price tag is surprising. It’s too rich for my blood, especially with a golfer who so infrequently contends.

Bryson DeChambeau – $7,200

Bryson made the trip over to Abu Dhabi last week, and is rushing back across the world to play in the Farmers. PASS!!! We have seen this over the last couple years, specifically with Rickie Fowler. The trip around the world at this time of the year takes its toll on these golfers and DeChambeau is going to be the next golfer to fall victim. Oh yeah, he also missed the cut last week.

So, you got burned?

Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.

Brandt Snedeker – $9,000

Sneds wound up being, surprisingly, highly owned last week. His $7,700 price tag must have been the key reason why, because he had no recent form and we were all guessing what he would bring to the table. Disappointment is what Sneds dished out at the CareerBuilder, and now his price has increased $1,300. I doubt many people are rushing to lineup and roster him, despite his fantastic course history. He is a risky play at best, but one that could be a huge difference in a large GPP. If risk is up your alley, Sneds is the play for you.

J.J. Spaun – $7,500

J.J. Spaun was another guy who missed the cut last week after people piled on him. We are clinging to the narrative that he is a west coast player because of his success from last season. Spaun finished T9 here last year in his first crack at Torrey Pines. Spaun still managed to gain three strokes on approach shots last week, even without playing all four rounds. His lack of distance isn’t ideal here, but he has shown before he still has what it takes to get it around this course. I doubt Spaun is over 10% owned in large GPPs.

Chesson Hadley – $6,800

Last week, Hadley was $9,000 and saw a decent amount of ownership. He underwhelmed for his price tag with a T42 finish. His price reduction will draw a lot of people back to him, but there will be others who are ready to move on. I think Hadley alone at $6,800 is a fantastic play, but add in the fact he ranks 14th in my weighted stat model over his last 12 rounds and he becomes a lock in a great bounce back spot.

Thanks for reading the Farmers Insurance Open preview article! Follow me on Twitter for more DFS and golf betting talk! Also, don’t forget to check out FanShareSports.com to get a full look at who the DFS golf community is talking about this week!

Good luck this week everybody!!

CareerBuilder Challenge Preview – DraftKings

CareerBuilder Challenge Preview – DraftKings

What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! I hope everyone enjoyed their time in Hawaii, snuck in Patton Kizzire into a few lineups and won some money, but it is time to head to the mainland for the CareerBuilder Challenge!

The CareerBuilder Challenge is a unique event – the only one of its kind. It is held at three different courses in California, La Quinta Country Club, Nicklaus Tournament Course and TPC Stadium Course. Since there are three different courses, this event is a 54 hole cut event, where every golfer will play a course once, before returning to the TPC Stadium Course after the cut for the final round on Sunday. All three courses are Par 72s, with all of them falling in the 7,000 yard range. All three of these courses ranked in the bottom 10 in terms of difficulty in 2017 – expect a lot of DraftKings scoring, especially with the three guaranteed rounds.

Stats for the Week

SG:Ball Striking

Birdie or Better Gained

SG:Putting – Bermuda

Bogey Avoidance

SG:Par 5s

Alright, let’s get to the picks!

Staples

My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.

Jon Rahm – $11,800

If you are considering fading Rahm this week, you have lost it. He is head and shoulders better than anyone else in this field, yet is only priced $300 more than Brian Harman. Rahm is the biggest lock of locks. Don’t worry about the price, there are plenty of solid cheap options to fill in your roster with. Rahm has finished inside the top seven in five of his last six. His SG:Ball striking numbers are otherworldly. Don’t get cute – have the winner on your roster.

Webb Simpson – $9,700

Don’t look now, but it seems as though Webb Simpson has learned how to putt. He has been known as a terrible putter his entire career, but since switching to the Kuchar style (cheating) grip, he has been lights out. Simpson has gained strokes on the green in seven of his last 10 events. He put on a clinic last week at the Sony gaining 4.6, while adding 3.7 on approaches. He finished T4 last week, saw a marginal price increase and is back at an event he has played solid at in the past.

Bud Cauley – $8,400

Bud Cauley is becoming a trendy name in the DFS golf world this week. This is mainly because of his success at this event in the last two years – T3 and T14. His $8,400 price tag may seem steep, so maybe the buzz he is receiving won’t translate to ownership. Let’s cross our fingers. Cauley is a world class ball striker when he is on, but let’s the putter fail him one too many times. If Cauley can maintain his approach game that he carried with him all of last season, I don’t see any reason why he can’t repeat with his success at the CareerBuilder.

Brandt Snedeker – $7,700

I am totally buying into the narrative that Brandt Snedeker needs to play well this winter/spring in order to get into the only event he cares about – The Masters. Currently, Brandt is not eligible to tee it up at Augusta, so he needs a win, or to climb inside the top 50 in the world golf rankings. Sneds missed most of last year with a hand injury, but has since returned making the cut at the RSM Classic. He hasn’t played the CareerBuilder in a couple of years, but I think his desperation and elite caliber are enough to put him in contention on Sunday.

Ben Martin – $6,900

Ben Martin popped in my model last week and I was dumb enough to ignore it. I am not letting that happen for the CareerBuilder. Martin is only $6,900 and is coming off a great performance (T7) at the Sony Open. Martin gained 5.9 SG:APP and 3.5 SG:P last week – numbers that if they are repeated will make his price tag seem like a joke on Sunday.

CareerBuilder Challenge Interactive Data

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Perfect Pivots

Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.

Patrick Reed – $11,100

The top of the board this week is going to be dominated by Jon Rahm, with good reason. But Patrick Reed has caught my eye as a primetime pivot option, someone who could easily end up being less that 10% owned his week. It’s been a while since Reed made some noise, the PGA Championship to be exact. However, when everyone was focused on football, Reed slid a T5 into the mix at the Hero World Challenge. I know that is a barely an event, but it does show his form has been there within the last few weeks. Let’s not forget Reed won the CareerBuilder in 2014.

Austin Cook – $8,700

Austin Cook continues to impress. Following him closely at the Sony last week told an intriguing story. He started off the week dialled in, but his putter let him down for two straight days. Through 12 holes on Friday, he had lost 5.2 strokes on the green. He battled on the back nine to make the cut on the number, then go on through the weekend to climb inside the top 20. If that isn’t grinding out an event, I don’t know what is. He ended up gaining strokes in all categories at the Sony, has seen a $1,100 price jump and only has ONE tag on FanShare sports. I think he is primed for another great result.

Peter Uihlein – $8,200

Everyone wants Uihlein to be the next Brooks Koepka, but there is a very real possibility he doesn’t come close. However, he has show results this fall that are encouraging and are allowing me to overlook his missed cut last week at the Sony. Uihlein lost 2.6 strokes putting, his second worst recorded tournament on the greens. With only one tag on FanShare Sports and priced underneath the popular Bud Cauley, Uihlein is in line for a sub 10%, top 10 finish.

J.T. Poston – $7,200

It doesn’t take long for the DFS world to completely forget who you are. Example – J.T. Poston, a golfer who became super popular during the fall swing season as his results and price didn’t seem to ever align. We have ourselves a similar situation. Poston is his typical $7,200 despite having very respectable stats in terms of BoB Gained, SG:Ball Striking and Bogey Avoidance over his last 24 rounds. He came T34 here last year in his only ever trip. He has a single tag on FanShare Sports and will likely be under 5% owned.

Automatic Fades

Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.

Chesson Hadley – $9,000

It’s been a couple of months since we saw Chesson Hadley’s run of brilliance in the fall. He rattled off three straight top five finishes before ending the season with a T37 at the RSM Classic. That was his last event, and I am worried there will be some rust to brush off in his first trip back. What also doesn’t help is that Hadley has missed the cut all three times he’s played here. At $9,000, I’d much rather know I am getting a golfer in good form – or at least a golfer who has proven it for a long time. I’ll be taking my money elsewhere.

Bubba Watson – $8,000

If you are someone who enjoys to roster Bubba, and is seriously considering it this week – good for you, you daredevil. I don’t trust Bubba for a second, even if he does have a white ball back in play. He is coming off what I’d imagine is his worst year of his career – a year in which he saw his world golf ranking fall from 10 to 73. $8,000 is way to rich for me in tournaments, let alone putting him in a cash lineup. Don’t get drawn in by the name or the story that going back to a Titleist ball is going to resurrect his career. Wait until he puts at least a couple good rounds under his belt.

Jimmy Walker – $7,600

It’s very unfortunate to watch, but the decline of Jimmy Walker is tough to watch. He has now missed four straight cuts, and last week’s Sony Open might be the most eye opening. He is a two time winner at Waialae and was his first event after a long break. You’d expect him to be in form and not exhausted from the Lyme’s disease. Now he gets a $400 price increase, which surely should scare people off. It sucks, but you cannot roster him until he shows he is fully healthy. It would be nice to be proven wrong here.

So, you got burned?

Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.

Bill Haas – $8,600

Historically, Haas has dominated this event. In his last four attempts, he has a T17, two top 10s and took home the trophy in 2015. Not surprisingly, he leads the field in strokes gained at this event. Haas has also missed back-to-back cuts, seen a $400 price increase and is priced right above the soon to be chalky Russell Knox. Losing 3.9 strokes putting is a great way to miss the cut, something Haas did last week at the Sony Open. I expect nothing but a solid rebound from Haas this week – how about at top 10?

J.J. Spaun – $7,900

Spaun was very popular last week, got out of the gates quickly but then failed to put another solid round together. If you weren’t paying attention, you’d think he didn’t make a birdie for 54 straight holes. What is encouraging about Spaun’s less than stellar T47 at the Sony Open, is that he lost the majority of his strokes around the green. He gained more strokes T2G than Brian Stuard, who finished T4. Similarly to Haas, I expect Spaun to figure it out around and on the greens and reward those who stuck with him for the CareerBuilder.

Thanks for reading the CareerBuilder Challenge preview article! Follow me on Twitter for more DFS and golf betting talk! Also, don’t forget to check out FanShareSports.com to get a full look at who the DFS golf community is talking about this week!

Good luck this week everybody!!