AT&T Pebble Beach Preview – DraftKings

AT&T Pebble Beach Preview – DraftKings

What’s going on fantasy golf fans?! Did you survive the Waste Management Open? Hope you got a piece of the recommended Gary Woodland and helped increase the bankroll for another doozy of an event.

We move onto one of the more famous tournaments on the PGA Tour schedule – the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Unfortunately, it’s a non-traditional event with a 54 hole cut, where only the top 60 and ties will move on after the players play three different courses. The rotation will be Pebble Beach (Par 72), Monterey Peninsula (71), and Spyglass Hill (72). All three courses are similar in length, ranging around 6,800 yards. The extended cut will put more golfers in play this week, limiting the risk of those wildy variant golfers we love. Ball striking will once again be at a premium. With 54 holes guaranteed, golfers giving themselves more scoring opportunities will eventually rise to the top. It’s difficult to come up with unique stats that can cover all three courses, so sticking guys who have shown solid tee to green games seems logical. The Par 5s are very reachable at all of these courses as well, making birdies and eagles even more abundant.

Stats for the Week

SG: Approach

SG: Par 5

Birdie or Better Gained

SG: Off the Tee

Proximity 150-200

Previous Winners

2017 – Jordan Spieth (-19)

2016 – Vaughn Taylor (-17)

2015 – Brandt Snedeker (-22)

2014 – Jimmy Walker (-11)

2013 – Brandt Snedeker (-19)

Alright, let’s get to the picks!

Staples

My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.

Dustin Johnson – $11,700

What is not to love about DJ this week. He is super expensive, but it is warranted when you look at all of our favorite factors. DJ has three top 5s in the past four years here and won in 2010. He won his last time out on the PGA Tour at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. He also played well in Abu Dhabi, coming T9. By now, you know all too well about DJ’s stats that going over them is useless. He is elite in all aspects of the game. There is plenty of value options this week that makes his enormous salary still easy to fit in.

Rory McIlroy – $11,100

I was hoping Rory would be slightly cheaper this week, maybe below Jordan Spieth. But it’s not, and perhaps that will keep his ownership in check a bit more. Rory is clearly back and he has shown that with two stellar outings in the middle east – T3 and a runner up. Taking a couple of months off to rest and get healthy certainly worked. People will be excited to roster Rory, but with the other elite options, I cannot see his ownership exceed 25%.

Patrick Cantlay – $8,900

Cantlay infrequent schedule is off to an expected start so far, limiting his hype. He has only played in two events, with only one top 15 at the Tournament of Champions. It seems as though people were expecting him to have a win already, as he is garnering zero attention on FanShare Sports. Cantlay has all the tools to pick up his second career win this week. He ranks 8th in the field on SG:Par 5 and 11th in SG:Ball striking over his last 24 rounds. He finished T9 here way back in 2013 before he became the elite golfer he is today.

Brandt Snedeker – $8,100

Sneds is a two time winner of this event and is only $8,100. Sure, one of the times he one half the field got whipped out due to gale force winds, but he still thrives at Pebble and will likely do so again. Sneds has improved upon his results in each tournament this season, capped off with a T23 at the Waste Management Open last week. I have mentioned this in previous articles – Sneds is still searching for his Masters invite and a win this week would have that invitation in the mail on Monday.

J.B. Holmes – $7,400

Holmes was hated two weeks ago, missed the cut at the Waste Management Open, and now returns to a tournament he has had tremendous success at. He has gained the 10th most strokes on the field at this event over the past five years. Holmes has made five straight cuts, including a T10 in 2015 and T11 in 2016. Holmes is only a week removed from a 4th place finish at the Farmers.

Austin Cook – $7,000

Cook is one of two major mispricings this week, becoming an incredible value play. Cook has failed to miss a cut in his rookie season, 8/8, and has already picked up a win. He played decent at the WMO, coming T31 and gaining strokes in all five major categories. Cook is great birdie maker, dominates Par 5s and hits plenty of greens in regulation. One of two locks for cash this week.

Rafa Cabrera-Bello – $6,900

The next lock in cash is Rafa Cabrera-Bello. How this guy is only $6,900 is beyond me. He is currently the 21st ranked player in the world, but is priced as someone who is outside the top 200. His recent form in Europe is excellent. He game T6 in Dubai two weeks ago, and ended 2017 with a T2 in Hong Kong. Just like Cook, Bello is a great ball striker and will have a ton of birdie looks this week. His price tag is a joke and needs to be taken advantage of.

AT&T Pebble Beach Interactive Data

Note these tools are FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “ERIC” for 15% off:

[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]

Perfect Pivots

Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.

Branden Grace – $9,100

Branden Grace will never be one of the more popular options, especially at $9,100. Since the last time he was eligible for a PGA DFS slate, Grace has gone out and won the Nedbank Golf Challenge, and finished 2nd at another South African event. Sure, the fields are poor, but the form is there for Grace. He hasn’t played the Pro-am in the last five years, but that won’t scare me off of a likely sub 10% owned, high caliber golfer.

Kevin Kisner – $8,200

It only took a couple weeks off for people to forget about Kevin Kisner. Currently sitting at zero tags on FanShare Sports, it will be tough for Kisner to gain traction this week. He hasn’t played in a while, and when he did play the results were mediocre at best. Add the fact that Brandt Snedeker is the golfer priced directly below Kisner, and you have the makings of a sub 10% week. Kisner finished T10 at this event last year and has the tee to green game to repeat that result.

Charley Hoffman – $7,300

According to FanShareSports.com, Kevin Streelman is out of the gates first toward being the chalk in the low $7,000s. Streelman has seven tags compared to Charley Hoffman’s one. Hoffman is underpriced once again, and early trend in 2018. He does have terrible course history, missing the cut both times he’s teed it up. However, his recent results suggest he has all aspects of his game clicking. He ranks 16th in my weighted stat model and will be easy to be overweight on when his ownership is below 15%.

Sean O’Hair – $6,700

With some early chalk forming in the mid $6,000s with Russell Henley, Russell Knox and Billy Horschel, O’Hair seems like a solid pivot option. O’Hair is a cut maker and a golfer who tends to play well at certain events. The Pebble Beach Pro-Am is one of these events. He has made four of five cuts, including a T16 and T29. These results don’t jump off the page, but if you want to make a move at the bottom of the board, rostering a guy who will likely play all four rounds seems like a valid option.

Tom Hoge – $6,600

Just like O’Hair, Hoge becomes and intriguing option due to the likely chalk in the mid $6,000s. He ranks 13th in my weighted stat model thanks to having the best strokes gained approach number over the past 12 rounds. He also missed the cut last week at the WMO because his putter did not show up. No one will be on Hoge, despite already recording two top 15s in 2018.

Automatic Fades

Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.

Jon Rahm – $11,400

Taking a stance at the top is hard, but it’s required if you want to take down a large GPP. I’ve been struggling with my player pool becoming too large in the last couple of weeks, so cutting guys out at the top has to be done. This week, it’s Rahm. His price tag is steep, only $300 less than DJ. He has also lost 7.8 strokes combined on approach shots over the last two weeks. His putter saved him at the Waste Management, gaining an unheard of 7.4 shots on the green. If the putter doesn’t show up, and his approach game doesn’t turn around, this could be a disaster in the making.

Adam Scott – $8,700

This is the first we have seen of Adam Scott in 2018. Red flag number one. And when we have seen him he has played terrible. Scott had the worst years of his career in 2017 so it will take some time before people starting feeling comfortable with him again. He missed the cut in his last event, the Australian PGA Championship, in a weak field in his native country. There are too many question marks surrounding Scott to pay this steep price.

James Hahn – $8,400

There is no doubt Hahn has been playing well this year. He has made every cut this season, finished 2nd at the Sony and came T11 last week at the WMO. However, Hahn is one of the streakiest guys on tour and I’ve said this before, is a much better play when he is in the high $6,000 range. His tag this week means you are expecting a top 20, which is far from guaranteed with Hahn. He also gained 5.2 strokes putting last week, inflating his finishing position.

Beau Hossler – $8,300

Everything I just said about Hahn can apply to Beau Hossler. He has been making cuts, popping into the leaderboard once and a doing it while priced in the low $7,000s. He gained 5.6 strokes on the greens last week on route to a T17. Beau has failed to gain strokes on approaches in his last five events. His $1,300 price jump to go along with his shady recent results is enough to keep me well away from him at Pebble.

This week is one of those weeks where the DraftKings Pricing algorithm decided to take phone it in. Here are a list of golfers I believe are incredibly mispriced and should be played at your own risk.

Sabbatini ($7,700), Watney ($7,700), Piller ($7,600), Putnam ($7,600), Singh ($7,500), Kelly ($7,500), Axley ($7,400), Baddeley ($7,400) and the list continues to go on and on in the $7,000 range.

So, you got burned?

Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.

Jordan Spieth – $10,700

Boring Spieth playing in the wild and crazy atmosphere that was the Waste Management Open didn’t sit right. Highly doubt that had anything to do with his performance, especially because he missed the cut due to his putter. That is now four straight events he has lost strokes putting. It’s mind blowing that someone that is so good with the flat stick can be in a rut for this long. Regardless, Spieth is returning to an event he has dominated at in the past, winning last year and having two other top 10s. He’s cheaper than usual and is a good putting week away from a win.

Shane Lowry – $7,500

Lowry’s missed T65 at the WMO was less than ideal. What was worse was the fact he lost 6.2 strokes on the green, his worst putting performance of his career. Lowry is priced with some of the ugliest names in the field, thanks to DraftKings wonky pricing week. That should give him a slight boost in ownership, but I can see many by-passing this entire range to go find value. Lowry has made three straight cuts at this event, and if the wind picks up, he will gain an advantage on the field.

Brandon Harkins – $7,000

Harkins has turned heads early this season with two top 15 finishes. His missed cut at the Waste Management Open stung DFSers looking to cash in on his hot streak. Typically, low owned guys who burn people are the easiest to move on from. Harkins is in a crowded price range and likely won’t see his ownership exceed 5%. He could easily regain the form he had from a couple of weeks ago and reward those who held tight with another top 20 finish.

Thanks for reading the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am preview article! Follow me on Twitter @EPattersonFS for more DFS and golf betting talk! Also, don’t forget to check out FanShareSports.com to get a full look at who the DFS golf community is talking about this week!

Good luck this week everybody!!

Waste Management Open Preview – DraftKings

Waste Management Open Preview – DraftKings

What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! It sure felt like the 2018 golf season really kicked off last week with an amazing event, a Monday playoff and the (solid) return of Tiger. And lucky for us, we get another strong field for the Waste Management Open. It’s party time!!! Get your six pack of PBR and head to the 16th hole for a week of drunken excitement!

The Waste Management Open will be played at TPC Scottsdale in, you guessed it, Scottsdale, Arizona. The course is a 7,266 yard Par 71, consisting of three very reachable Par 5s. The event is known for its rowdiness, which makes the entire week a great event to watch and follow. TPC Scottsdale is a second shot course, placing a large emphasis on strokes gained approach. The rough isn’t very penalizing, which will put the big stick in most golfer’s hands all weekend. Bombers don’t typically have an advantage here, but length will help on the aforementioned Par 5s. The winning score here has typically lingered in the mid to high teens, with Hideki winning the last two years at -14 and -17. The bermuda grass greens here will help level the playing field, giving guys like Hideki a better chance to contend. Unlike the last few weeks, putting will not be taken into consideration, rather guys who are stripping it with their irons will be heavily focused on.

Stats for the Week

SG: Approach

SG: Par 5

Birdie or Better Gained

SG: Off the Tee

Proximity 150-200

Alright, let’s get to the picks!

Staples

My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.

Hideki Matsuyama – $11,500

This is Hideki’s event. Dominant is the only word that can describe the run Matsuyama has had at the Waste Management Open. In four years he has a T4, T2 and back-to-back wins. He is clearly the favorite to win again, and do not think a three-peat is not a possibility. He finished last week off strong, with a solid 3-under final round, moving him up to this T12 finish. What is odd is that Hideki did most of his damage on the green. Regardless, he cannot be faded this week, even as the most expensive golfer. I would be shocked if he doesn’t finish inside the top five once again.

Jon Rahm – $11,000

Rahm was a contender for the So You Got Burned segment, but there is still too much to love to leave him out of the staples. Rahm had a terrible Sunday round at Torrey Pines, one where he lost 3.2 strokes putting. Taking Rahm off the poa at Torrey and onto the bermuda at Scottsdale can only help. He was at the top of the leaderboard for most of last week, again showing why he had the chance overtaking the #1 ranking in the world. Rahm returns to an event he has played twice, and came T5 at as an amateur. I don’t think returning to the town he went to college in will distract Rahm. He seems hungry and determined to be at the top of the leaderboard each week. I am willing to dismiss one bad round of putting from the insane run of golf Rahm has been playing.

Gary Woodland – $8,600

Woodland comes in ranked 1st in my weighted stats model. His incredible BoB gained and SG: Par 5s over his past 12 rounds puts him at the top. Woodland has followed up his T7 at the Sony with a T12 last week at the Farmers Insurance Open. He now has three straight events gaining strokes on approach shots, and I know I mentioned putting isn’t being considered, but for a notoriously bad putter, Woodland has been lights out with the flat stick as of late. Woodland’s course history is hit or miss, making three of his last five cuts. I’m going to ride the heater Gary is on while others likely move on.

Zach Johnson – $7,700

Zach Johnson has found a lot of consistency in Scottsdale. In his past three trips to the WMO, Johnson has a T10, T14 and T12. Another result like that would be perfect for a $7,700 golfer. ZJ has also been very impressive over his past 12 rounds statistically. He ranks 4th in SG:APP and 8th in BoB Gained. He has also been scoring on Par 5s despite his lack of distance. He is about as safe as they come this week and without Charles Howell in the field, ZJ should fill in perfectly as a cash game lock.

Scott Piercy – $7,500

Scott Piercy has always had the “plays well in the desert” narrative surrounding him in events like the Waste Management Open. It has been a while since you can consider his trip to Scottsdale a success, dating back to his T15 in 2014 and 3rd place finish in 2013. Piercy is coming off one of his best finishes in the last couple of years, a T6 at the CareerBuilder where he gained strokes across the board. He will always be one of the best birdie makers in the field week in and week out. Mix in the fact he ranks 5th in SG:APP and 10th in SG:Par 5s over his past 12 rounds and you have yourself and elite level play.

Emiliano Grillo – $7,200

Grillo had an incredible ball striking week at Torrey Pines on route to a T12 finish. Grillo gained 5.3 shots on approaches, and gained shots in all other categories as well. That is now nine straight made cuts, after he struggled most of 2017. Grillo doesn’t have the length to be considered a bomber, but he does consistently gain strokes off the tee due to his accuracy. He ranks 21st in the field in SG: Par 5 over his last 12 rounds and 8th in SG:Off the Tee. His price tag makes him an amazing cash option and you should feel comfortable knowing you’ll get 72 holes out of Grillo this week.

Waste Management Open Interactive Data

Note these tools are FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “ERIC” for 15% off:

[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]

Perfect Pivots

Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.

Marc Leishman – $9,700

I think people are getting tired of talking and being excited about rostering Marc Leishman. He only has one tag so far, and is trending towards being the lowest owned golfer in the +$9K range. Roster construction will likely have him being passed on often, with most people wanting to jam in one of the five digit golfers. Leish quietly game T8 at the Farmers, gaining 4.2 strokes on approach shots. After missing back-to-back cuts here in 2013 and 2014, Leishman took some time off from this event before returning last year for a T24. He has the ideal game for this course and if he is being ignored, what a perfect time to load up.

Kevin Chappell – $7,700

Chappell seems very under priced at first glance, but when you realize DK factors course history heavily into their pricing, you understand why. Chappell hasn’t had a ton of success at this event, but he has made the cut three out of his last five attempts. Not great. Why Chappell is a great pivot this week is that he should be lower owned, especially priced the same as Zach Johnson. Chappell also lit it up with his irons at the CareerBuilder, gaining 6.9 shots. If that continues in Arizona, he’ll be in the mix on Sunday.

Keegan Bradley – $7,400

Caveat to this is that it is early in the week and popularity can certainly snowball. However, for now, Keegan Bradley doesn’t have a single tag on FanShareSports and is priced the same as Xander Schauffele who has seven. Keegan came 5th last week at Torrey Pines, crushing in on approach shots, gaining 6.2 strokes. I fully expect that iron play to carry over to Scottsdale, an event Bradley has seen some success at in the past. His last three made cuts here have all resulted in top 25 finishes. His price is cheap and putting has been proven to not matter at this event.

Will McGirt – $6,900

It seems like it has been a while since we saw McGirt make a real splash in an event. He did have a couple top 10s in the fall swing season, but his T65 at the Sony definitely didn’t turn any heads. Perhaps flying under the radar this week will be a perfect situation for him. McGirt has zero tags on FanShareSports, despite gaining strokes on approach shots in three straight events. McGirt also loves this course, making the cut five straight seasons, including three top 25 results.

Automatic Fades

Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.

Phil Mickelson – $8,500

If you followed the coverage at all at Torrey, you saw Phil Mickelson, a lot. And what you saw, or at least what I picked up on, was a guy who was hitting the ball all over the yard but putting the lights out. The stats tell a similar story. Phil lost 3.2 strokes off the tee but gained 3.5 strokes putting, on route to his T45 finish. TPC Scottsdale has treated Phil well in the past, but if he is going to rely so heavily on the flat stick again, I cannot swallow the $8,500 price tag he is demanding.

Bubba Watson – $7,500

Bubba has incredible course history at TPC Sawgrass, but he proved last year he is still capable of missing the cut. I guarantee I miss out on Bubba’s rare top 10 that he may or may not post this season, because I will not be on him until he shows a glimpse of form. Unless of course he is sub $7K at Augusta. He missed the cut at the CareerBuilder a couple of weeks ago, his only start in 2018. $7,500 is way to rich for a guy I’m not sure is good at golf anymore.

Luke List – $7,200

Luke List crept his way to the top of the leaderboard last week, finishing in a respectable T12 position. However, he did most of his damage around the green, gaining 3.7 shots. That is something that does not translate very well to TPC Scottsdale, a course that sees a higher scrambling percentage from the top 10 finishers than the average tour event. List comes and goes more than anyone on tour, and if his iron game isn’t on (he’s lost strokes on approaches in five straight events) than he is a very difficult golfer to trust.

So, you got burned?

Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.

Rickie Fowler – $10,400

Last week was a very unfortunate time to load up on Fowler. He missed the cut on the number as the second highest priced golfer. I was high on him because of the fact he wasn’t travelling across the world to play in the event, something he had done in his previous couple of years. Torrey Pines just isn’t Rickie’s course. However, TPC Scottsdale is. He has a 2nd and a T4 here in his last two trips to Arizona. His $1,000 price drop puts us in an even better spot to capitalize on a primetime bounce back opportunity.

Ollie Schniederjans – $7,600

Everyone and their mother was on Ollie last week. He struggled on Thursday, came out hot fire on the front nine Friday, then proceeded to shoot 40 on the back nine to miss the cut. It sucked owning him as your winnings on Friday fluctuated with his performance. Ollie is now $900 cheaper and in a very similar situation. He still continues to gain strokes with his approach shots and should have no issue scoring on these easy Par 5s.

Xander Schauffele – $7,400

Xander was another guy who missed the cut on the number at Torrey when seemingly everyone had some shares of him. Xander’s sophomore season has not gotten off to the start he or any of us would have hoped for – he is 0/3 in top 20s. His price is the most intriguing quality this week, $600 cheaper than last. He won’t see nearly the same ownership as the Farmers either. He should dominate the Par 5s and his putting woes from last week shouldn’t be an issue on the bermuda.

Thanks for reading the Waste Management Open preview article! Follow me on Twitter for more DFS and golf betting talk! Also, don’t forget to check out FanShareSports.com to get a full look at who the DFS golf community is talking about this week!

Good luck this week everybody!!

Farmers Insurance Open Preview – DraftKings

Farmers Insurance Open Preview – DraftKings

What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! Jon Rahm gets it done in La Quinta! I hope everyone loaded up on the obvious pick last week and has some extra cash in the account to blow this week.

To San Diego we go for the Farmers Insurance Open, hosted at the iconic Torrey Pines. There are two courses at Torrey, both telling a completely different story. The North Course will be played once by the golfers in Round 1 or 2, and is a 7,200 yard Par 72. It is the much easier course of the two and golfers will need to get scoring done at the North Course to make the cut. Shout out to Kenny Kim (@KendoVT) for this tidbit – No winner has shot over par in their round at the North since 1983. The South Course is a completely different monster. Stretched out to 7,700 yards, this Par 72 will be played three times by those fortunate to make the cut. Distance will be crucial to getting around the South Course successfully, even though shorter hitters have done well here in the past. Six of the Par 4s at the South are over 450 yards, and even five on the North are over this mark as well. Putting this week is even trickier to try and predict than normal. The North uses bentgrass and the South has poa. Sure, you can use it as a tiebreaker between two golfers, but toss out SG:Putting from your stat models.

Stats for the Week

SG:Ball Striking

SG: Par 4-450-500

Birdie or Better Gained

SG:Par 5s

Bogey Avoidance

Proximity 200+

 Alright, let’s get to the picks!

Staples

My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.

Rickie Fowler – $11,400

Splitting hairs at the top is a tough thing to do, but if I have to take a stand and pick one of these guys to back this week, it’s Rickie Fowler. Obviously Rahm is coming in as the defending champion with incredible form after winning the CareerBuilder, but Fowler is right there with him. His last three finishes are a 2nd, 1st and T4. He decided to skip the trip to Abu Dhabi, as it hasn’t worked for him the last couple of years returning and playing this event – Rickie missed the cut the last two years here. I am hoping that moves people off of Rickie, keeping his ownership in check. Fowler has all the tools to contend here and is my pick to hoist the trophy on Sunday.

Marc Leishman – $9,200

Marc Leishman lands on my radar this week for a couple of reasons. First, he is one of many elite golfers in this field and is priced right at the bottom of them all. There is a clear drop in caliber after the $9,200 Leishman, who has the fewest tags out of any priced above him. That gives me reason to believe his ownership will be reasonable, another reason to jump on board. Leish has a runner up finish at this event back in 2014, so you’d have to think his new and improved game is suited for these tracks. He has the ball striking skills and Par 4 scoring ability that is required to get the job done here.

Tony Finau – $8,700

If Tony Finau is going to pick up that marquee victory in his career, this is the event it is going to happen at. Finau has made the cut at Torrey three straight years, improving on his finish from the prior year each time. Last year, his T4 result was driven by an all around performance, gaining strokes on the field in every category. Finau ranks 10th in SG:Ball Striking in this field over his past 12 rounds, the most important stat I am looking at this week. He shook the rust off at the Sony Open two weeks ago and should be primed for an impressive run this week. He is in serious consideration as a One and Done pick this week.

Jhonattan Vegas – $7,700

Vegas is on a mini heater right now and I’ll be continuing to tag along for the ride. He has a T7 and T11 in his last two trips out, consistency we aren’t use to seeing with Vegas. He has gained strokes in all categories except around the green each of his last two events as well. Jhonny V also has a decent track record at Torrey Pines, making four straight cuts including two top 20 finishes. He has the distance and ball striking skills to keep his solid form rolling, and I’d be shocked if we didn’t see Vegas in the mix on the weekend.

Charley Hoffman – $7,200

During my first pass at the DraftKings pricing, two things immediately stood out. Tiger’s insane price, more to come with that, and Charley Hoffman being incredibly cheap. I had to Google and make sure nothing had happened to Hoffman over the break that might warrant this tag. But nothing – just an error by the DraftKings pricing algorithm. Hoffman has made the cut at this event four of the past five years, and the last time we saw him tee it up he came 2nd at the Hero World Challenge. It would have been nice to see Charley mix in an event between now and then, but at this price, he could have taken a year off, ala TW, and it wouldn’t have mattered.

Farmers Insurance Open Interactive Data

Note these tools are FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “ERIC” for 15% off:

[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]

Perfect Pivots

Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere

Justin Rose – $10,600

It’s in fields like this one where Justin Rose falls under the radar. He hasn’t been DraftKings eligible since the Hero, and really in the spotlight since the WGC-HSBC Champions, which he won. His price tag this week is manageable if you want to pivot off of the top tier of golfers. It wasn’t too long ago Rose was the hottest golfer on the planet. The one concern with Rose is the fact that he played in Abu Dhabi last week and is making the long trip to San Diego. His ownership won’t come close to that of Fowler or Rahm, so that travel concern definitely doesn’t outweigh the potential upside.

Grayson Murray – $8,000

If this is a bombers track and distance is king, why not take a shot with the overpriced Murray? We rarely ever see Grayson priced in the $8,000, but here we are. He played well last week at the CareerBuilder, doing most of his damage on the green on way to a T14 finish. Grayson has zero tags on FanShare Sports, and is priced around Charles Howell and Bud Cauley, two very likely chalky options.

Brendan Steele – $7,800

Steele is a known California guy, yet isn’t on track to see much ownership this week at the Farmers. He only has one tag on FanShare, is priced beside Bud Cauley and Jhonattan Vegas and is coming off of an average finish at the CareerBuilder. Steele has made the cut at Torrey five straight years, although his best finish was last year – T20. Steele has the distance to get around these courses with ease. He’s a reliable cut maker and should be heavily considered for cash lineups.

Lucas Glover – $7,100

The ball striking master Lucas Glove was out in full force at the CareerBuilder. Glover gained 6.6 SG:T2G and of course, lost 4.3 on the greens. That is what we have come to expect with Glove, but the results seem to always be there despite his putting woes. If Glove comes out with that type of tee to green clinic again, $7,200 will be an absolute steal.

Automatic Fades

Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.

Tigers Woods $9,700

HE’S BACK!!! And holy smokes is he over priced. The community as a whole was shocked at his price and it will take some serious Tiger Woods fandom to overcome the $9,700 tag. The risk is insane with Tiger, and it is multiplied at this price. Yes, he has destroyed this course his entire career, but still. He’s played one exhibition tournament in the last year and the Hero World Challenge is nothing compared to the test that Torrey will present. I’m cheering for the comeback to be real as much as the next guy, but it’s a no from me this week.

Patrick Reed – $8,400

I followed Reed’s performance last week at the CareerBuilder closely – he was my terrible One and Done pick. Reed struggled majorly off the tee, with approaches and on the greens. All around, it was a terrible effort and there is no chance I am backing Reed this week with any sort of money. Reed has played this event twice in the past five years, withdrawing once and coming T39 back in 2013. The length will be too much for him and another missed cut seems all too likely.

James Hahn – $7,700

Hahn came to play at the Sony Open, losing in a playoff to Patton Kizzire. He didn’t have a terrible week last week either, but his track record at Torrey is less than stellar. In the past five attempts, Hahn’s best finish is a T41(2015) and has added two missed cuts in there as well. In fields of this strength, Hahn is usually in the low $7,000 range so to see him at this modest price tag is surprising. It’s too rich for my blood, especially with a golfer who so infrequently contends.

Bryson DeChambeau – $7,200

Bryson made the trip over to Abu Dhabi last week, and is rushing back across the world to play in the Farmers. PASS!!! We have seen this over the last couple years, specifically with Rickie Fowler. The trip around the world at this time of the year takes its toll on these golfers and DeChambeau is going to be the next golfer to fall victim. Oh yeah, he also missed the cut last week.

So, you got burned?

Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.

Brandt Snedeker – $9,000

Sneds wound up being, surprisingly, highly owned last week. His $7,700 price tag must have been the key reason why, because he had no recent form and we were all guessing what he would bring to the table. Disappointment is what Sneds dished out at the CareerBuilder, and now his price has increased $1,300. I doubt many people are rushing to lineup and roster him, despite his fantastic course history. He is a risky play at best, but one that could be a huge difference in a large GPP. If risk is up your alley, Sneds is the play for you.

J.J. Spaun – $7,500

J.J. Spaun was another guy who missed the cut last week after people piled on him. We are clinging to the narrative that he is a west coast player because of his success from last season. Spaun finished T9 here last year in his first crack at Torrey Pines. Spaun still managed to gain three strokes on approach shots last week, even without playing all four rounds. His lack of distance isn’t ideal here, but he has shown before he still has what it takes to get it around this course. I doubt Spaun is over 10% owned in large GPPs.

Chesson Hadley – $6,800

Last week, Hadley was $9,000 and saw a decent amount of ownership. He underwhelmed for his price tag with a T42 finish. His price reduction will draw a lot of people back to him, but there will be others who are ready to move on. I think Hadley alone at $6,800 is a fantastic play, but add in the fact he ranks 14th in my weighted stat model over his last 12 rounds and he becomes a lock in a great bounce back spot.

Thanks for reading the Farmers Insurance Open preview article! Follow me on Twitter for more DFS and golf betting talk! Also, don’t forget to check out FanShareSports.com to get a full look at who the DFS golf community is talking about this week!

Good luck this week everybody!!

CareerBuilder Challenge Preview – DraftKings

CareerBuilder Challenge Preview – DraftKings

What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! I hope everyone enjoyed their time in Hawaii, snuck in Patton Kizzire into a few lineups and won some money, but it is time to head to the mainland for the CareerBuilder Challenge!

The CareerBuilder Challenge is a unique event – the only one of its kind. It is held at three different courses in California, La Quinta Country Club, Nicklaus Tournament Course and TPC Stadium Course. Since there are three different courses, this event is a 54 hole cut event, where every golfer will play a course once, before returning to the TPC Stadium Course after the cut for the final round on Sunday. All three courses are Par 72s, with all of them falling in the 7,000 yard range. All three of these courses ranked in the bottom 10 in terms of difficulty in 2017 – expect a lot of DraftKings scoring, especially with the three guaranteed rounds.

Stats for the Week

SG:Ball Striking

Birdie or Better Gained

SG:Putting – Bermuda

Bogey Avoidance

SG:Par 5s

Alright, let’s get to the picks!

Staples

My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.

Jon Rahm – $11,800

If you are considering fading Rahm this week, you have lost it. He is head and shoulders better than anyone else in this field, yet is only priced $300 more than Brian Harman. Rahm is the biggest lock of locks. Don’t worry about the price, there are plenty of solid cheap options to fill in your roster with. Rahm has finished inside the top seven in five of his last six. His SG:Ball striking numbers are otherworldly. Don’t get cute – have the winner on your roster.

Webb Simpson – $9,700

Don’t look now, but it seems as though Webb Simpson has learned how to putt. He has been known as a terrible putter his entire career, but since switching to the Kuchar style (cheating) grip, he has been lights out. Simpson has gained strokes on the green in seven of his last 10 events. He put on a clinic last week at the Sony gaining 4.6, while adding 3.7 on approaches. He finished T4 last week, saw a marginal price increase and is back at an event he has played solid at in the past.

Bud Cauley – $8,400

Bud Cauley is becoming a trendy name in the DFS golf world this week. This is mainly because of his success at this event in the last two years – T3 and T14. His $8,400 price tag may seem steep, so maybe the buzz he is receiving won’t translate to ownership. Let’s cross our fingers. Cauley is a world class ball striker when he is on, but let’s the putter fail him one too many times. If Cauley can maintain his approach game that he carried with him all of last season, I don’t see any reason why he can’t repeat with his success at the CareerBuilder.

Brandt Snedeker – $7,700

I am totally buying into the narrative that Brandt Snedeker needs to play well this winter/spring in order to get into the only event he cares about – The Masters. Currently, Brandt is not eligible to tee it up at Augusta, so he needs a win, or to climb inside the top 50 in the world golf rankings. Sneds missed most of last year with a hand injury, but has since returned making the cut at the RSM Classic. He hasn’t played the CareerBuilder in a couple of years, but I think his desperation and elite caliber are enough to put him in contention on Sunday.

Ben Martin – $6,900

Ben Martin popped in my model last week and I was dumb enough to ignore it. I am not letting that happen for the CareerBuilder. Martin is only $6,900 and is coming off a great performance (T7) at the Sony Open. Martin gained 5.9 SG:APP and 3.5 SG:P last week – numbers that if they are repeated will make his price tag seem like a joke on Sunday.

CareerBuilder Challenge Interactive Data

Note these tools are FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “ERIC” for 15% off:

[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]

Perfect Pivots

Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.

Patrick Reed – $11,100

The top of the board this week is going to be dominated by Jon Rahm, with good reason. But Patrick Reed has caught my eye as a primetime pivot option, someone who could easily end up being less that 10% owned his week. It’s been a while since Reed made some noise, the PGA Championship to be exact. However, when everyone was focused on football, Reed slid a T5 into the mix at the Hero World Challenge. I know that is a barely an event, but it does show his form has been there within the last few weeks. Let’s not forget Reed won the CareerBuilder in 2014.

Austin Cook – $8,700

Austin Cook continues to impress. Following him closely at the Sony last week told an intriguing story. He started off the week dialled in, but his putter let him down for two straight days. Through 12 holes on Friday, he had lost 5.2 strokes on the green. He battled on the back nine to make the cut on the number, then go on through the weekend to climb inside the top 20. If that isn’t grinding out an event, I don’t know what is. He ended up gaining strokes in all categories at the Sony, has seen a $1,100 price jump and only has ONE tag on FanShare sports. I think he is primed for another great result.

Peter Uihlein – $8,200

Everyone wants Uihlein to be the next Brooks Koepka, but there is a very real possibility he doesn’t come close. However, he has show results this fall that are encouraging and are allowing me to overlook his missed cut last week at the Sony. Uihlein lost 2.6 strokes putting, his second worst recorded tournament on the greens. With only one tag on FanShare Sports and priced underneath the popular Bud Cauley, Uihlein is in line for a sub 10%, top 10 finish.

J.T. Poston – $7,200

It doesn’t take long for the DFS world to completely forget who you are. Example – J.T. Poston, a golfer who became super popular during the fall swing season as his results and price didn’t seem to ever align. We have ourselves a similar situation. Poston is his typical $7,200 despite having very respectable stats in terms of BoB Gained, SG:Ball Striking and Bogey Avoidance over his last 24 rounds. He came T34 here last year in his only ever trip. He has a single tag on FanShare Sports and will likely be under 5% owned.

Automatic Fades

Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.

Chesson Hadley – $9,000

It’s been a couple of months since we saw Chesson Hadley’s run of brilliance in the fall. He rattled off three straight top five finishes before ending the season with a T37 at the RSM Classic. That was his last event, and I am worried there will be some rust to brush off in his first trip back. What also doesn’t help is that Hadley has missed the cut all three times he’s played here. At $9,000, I’d much rather know I am getting a golfer in good form – or at least a golfer who has proven it for a long time. I’ll be taking my money elsewhere.

Bubba Watson – $8,000

If you are someone who enjoys to roster Bubba, and is seriously considering it this week – good for you, you daredevil. I don’t trust Bubba for a second, even if he does have a white ball back in play. He is coming off what I’d imagine is his worst year of his career – a year in which he saw his world golf ranking fall from 10 to 73. $8,000 is way to rich for me in tournaments, let alone putting him in a cash lineup. Don’t get drawn in by the name or the story that going back to a Titleist ball is going to resurrect his career. Wait until he puts at least a couple good rounds under his belt.

Jimmy Walker – $7,600

It’s very unfortunate to watch, but the decline of Jimmy Walker is tough to watch. He has now missed four straight cuts, and last week’s Sony Open might be the most eye opening. He is a two time winner at Waialae and was his first event after a long break. You’d expect him to be in form and not exhausted from the Lyme’s disease. Now he gets a $400 price increase, which surely should scare people off. It sucks, but you cannot roster him until he shows he is fully healthy. It would be nice to be proven wrong here.

So, you got burned?

Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.

Bill Haas – $8,600

Historically, Haas has dominated this event. In his last four attempts, he has a T17, two top 10s and took home the trophy in 2015. Not surprisingly, he leads the field in strokes gained at this event. Haas has also missed back-to-back cuts, seen a $400 price increase and is priced right above the soon to be chalky Russell Knox. Losing 3.9 strokes putting is a great way to miss the cut, something Haas did last week at the Sony Open. I expect nothing but a solid rebound from Haas this week – how about at top 10?

J.J. Spaun – $7,900

Spaun was very popular last week, got out of the gates quickly but then failed to put another solid round together. If you weren’t paying attention, you’d think he didn’t make a birdie for 54 straight holes. What is encouraging about Spaun’s less than stellar T47 at the Sony Open, is that he lost the majority of his strokes around the green. He gained more strokes T2G than Brian Stuard, who finished T4. Similarly to Haas, I expect Spaun to figure it out around and on the greens and reward those who stuck with him for the CareerBuilder.

Thanks for reading the CareerBuilder Challenge preview article! Follow me on Twitter for more DFS and golf betting talk! Also, don’t forget to check out FanShareSports.com to get a full look at who the DFS golf community is talking about this week!

Good luck this week everybody!!

Sony Open Preview – DraftKings

Sony Open Preview – DraftKings

What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! I hope everyone enjoyed the first week and is back into the swing of things! DJ was DJ in Maui, and if you didn’t have a piece of him it was hard to compete. Overall, the first week was a success and an awesome kickoff to what should be a great year.

The PGA Tour is staying in Hawaii for the Sony Open hosted by Waialae Country Club. Waialae has played host to this event since its inauguration giving us plenty of course history to look back on. The course plays as a 7,044 yard Par 70, with just two Par 5s we love for DraftKings scoring. Compared to last week, the fairways are much narrower and less fairways are hit here compared to the average PGA Tour event. However, the rough isn’t very penial, which is why typical winning scores still end up in the -20s or high teens. Waialae is a second shot course. Ten of the Par 4s range from 400-500 yards and the majority of approach shots on the course will be coming from 150-200 yards. If a golfer scores on the Par 4s this week, they will end up near the top of the leaderboard. Shoutout to Kenny Kim (@KendoVT) for this stat – 13 of the last 19 winners of the Sony Open played the week before at Kapalua. Chalk that up to guys acclimated to the climate, the Bermuda grass greens, and getting rid of any rust that built up over the off season.

Stats for the Week

SG:Approach

Birdie or Better Gained

SG:Putting – Bermuda

Par 4 Efficiency – 400-500 yards

Proximity 150-200

Alright, let’s get to the picks!

Staples

My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.

Jordan Spieth – $12,000

Man oh man did Spieth forget how to putt last week or what!! It was one of the worst putting performances of his career, and he still managed to finish 9th. Spieth was lights out tee-to-green but gave it all back with the flatty. What is encouraging is that we all know how elite Spieth is on the greens so it could easily come back just as fast as it left. Even if he putts field average this week at the Sony Open and continues his tee-to-green game, he’ll win this event. His price makes lineup construction difficult, but I doubt we see his ownership fall below 25%. I’m willing to shove all in while others are still feeling the burn from doing so last week.

Kevin Kisner – $10,100

I fully expect Kisner to fly under the radar this week with three big names priced above him and the in-form Brian Harman right there as well. Kisner stands out for a few reasons. First, he played last week which is huge. As mentioned above, 13 of the last 19 winners of The Sony Open have played the week before in the ToC. Check mark for Kisner. He also has the course history. Kis has a T4 and a T5 in his last two trips to the Sony. He can putt on Bermuda greens, is excellent on Par 4s and when he is on with his approach game he is usually in contention. I see another top 5 finish in the cards for Kisner this week.

Tony Finau – $8,900

It’s been quite a while since we have been able to roster Tony Finau, and I am pretty damn excited. Finau ended 2017 on his best run of his career. He had two top tens in the FedEx Cup playoffs, a 2nd at the Safeway Open and two more top 16s in his last two events. His stats are incredible over that time, and in his last two recorded event, he gained 5.5 SG:APP in each. He came T20 at the 2017 Sony Open, giving him some familiarity with the course which is what you want in a cash game player. Plenty of people have pegged Finau as a big time break out player this year, and a win this week would be a huge start to the season for Tony.

J.J. Spaun – $7,600

J.J. Spaun comes in ranked first in my weighted stat model this week because he finished the 2017 season hot as hell. Perhaps it is lucky for us that he didn’t pick up his first career title in the fall swing season and was saving it for the 2018 Sony Open. His game will suit this course as he is one of the best on Par 4s between 400-450, makes a ton of birdies and ranks 4th in SG:APP over his last 12 rounds. Surprisingly, Spaun did miss the cut here last year because he lost four strokes around the green. I do not expect that to be an issue if his irons are dialled in like they should be. He finished 2017 with three straight top 15s and a 2nd at the RSM Classic. Look for him to pick up where he left off at the Sony.

Jason Dufner – $7,300

How in the world is Jason Dufner priced $7,300. This mispricing won’t go unnoticed but still has to be taken advantage of. Duf played solid last week with a T11 finish Tournament of Champions, mainly because of his putter. Still, he is one of the best in the game on approach shots and has gained strokes on approaches in 16 of his last 18 events. Despite missing the cut here last season, he did finish T9 in 2016. I love Dufner for cash games this week because his price makes lineup construction so much easier.

Sony Open Interactive Data

Note these tools are FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “ERIC” for 15% off:

[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]

Perfect Pivots

Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.

Webb Simpson – $9,300

This doesn’t make me feel warm and fuzzy inside, because I hate rostering the inconsistent Webb Simpson. But it looks as though he will be the lowest owned golfer priced above $9K this week according to the early tag results on FanShare Sports. Simpson’s price is reasonable. We have seen him priced in the five digit range in similar field events last season. He also has three straight T13 finishes at the Sony Open. If ball striking will be important this week, a low owned Webb Simpson is the guy you need to take down a GPP.

Xander Schauffele – $8,600

Alright Xander, we’ll let you off the hook since last week was your first trip to Maui. Looking back, his T22 finish shouldn’t have been a surprise at the ToC. He uncharacteristically lost 5.8 strokes on approaches, his second worst performance of his career in that stat. The reason why I like Xander so much this week is that he is wedged in between Berger and Si Woo Kim, so he will be completely ignored. I’d be surprised to see his ownership go over 10% – a rare number to see for a two time winner on tour and rookie of the year. Xander is in a prime bounce back spot.

Chris Kirk – $7,100

Kirk’s price jumped out at me at first glance – that’s why he ended up in this article. Kirk has had success at this event in the past, two top 5s and a T26 in the past five years. Unfortunately, his last two attempts have resulted in missed cuts. What is encouraging is that Kirk found some form at the end of the 2017 season, making seven of his last eight cuts and finished T4 at the RSM Classic his last time out. He has also gained strokes on approaches in five straight events. Kirk falls in the crowded low $7K range and won’t gain traction throughout the week. He is definitely worth a flier or two.

Automatic Fades

Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.

Si Woo Kim – $8,500

I love Si Woo Kim as much as the next guy thanks to his profitable win at The Players. But in this spot, at $8,500 when the entire world seems to be jumping aboard – I have to abandon ship. I agree he can win this event no problem, but the likely hood he returns value at his price tag is a long shot. Kim only has 16 top 10s in 153 career events. One of those top 10s was last week and he has only had back-to-back top 10s twice in his career. He comes and goes faster than anyone, and if he is going to be chalk this week it seems like a logical fade.

Brian Gay – $7,900

The last time we saw Gay tee it up, he finished T3 at the RSM Classic. That result is still on people’s minds, as he has created some early buzz for the Sony Open. Gay’s $7,900 price is steep to say the least, and will have to rely heavily on his putter this week if is going to return value. His stats are very mediocre when it comes to SG:APP, Par 4 efficiency from the key yardages and his proximity from 150-200 ranks in the 90s. Having to put that much stock into a golfer’s flat stick is a scary proposition.

Jerry Kelly – $7,500

Sorry old man Jerry, none of you this week. I would have been intrigued if Kelly was closer to the dead minimum, but the risk he carries at $7,500 is high. Kelly will likely be unpopular, but his course history could lure some people in. He has three top 10s here in the past five years, but also two missed cuts. Stay away, stay faarrrr away.

So, you got burned?

Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.

Justin Thomas – $11,600

JT did not get the seasons started the way he had hoped. His T22 at the Tournament of Champions was mainly due to the fact that he lost 3.6 strokes on the green. He was also only about 15% owned across large tournaments last week, as the highest priced golfer. This field is obviously weaker, but not too many people will be super eager to put him back into their lineups. I do not see JT’s ownership eclipsing 20% this week, and as the defending champ who rarely needs to show form prior to a win – this is a perfect time to go all in.

Austin Cook – $7,600

Austin Cook created quite a bit of buzz last week in his first ever trip to Kapalua, thanks to a couple of big time names in the industry. As expected with most first timers at the ToC, he finished a subpar T22, losing strokes across the board. However, Kip Henley, Austin Cook’s caddie, said in an interview that the Sony Open is the event he expected Austin to do better at. That is a first hand, honest opinion about a golfer in this field that we have to consider. In Cook’s win at the RSM Classic, he gained 4.5 strokes on approaches, a stat that will be crucial this week. Cook makes a ton birdies and is the 4th most efficient golfer on Par 4s between 450-500 yards in the field over his last 12 rounds.

Thanks for reading the Sony Open preview article! Follow me on Twitter for more DFS and golf betting talk! Also, don’t forget to check out FanShareSports.com to get a full look at who the DFS golf community is talking about this week!

Good luck this week everybody!!

 

 

 

 

Sentry Tournament of Champions Preview – DraftKings

Sentry Tournament of Champions Preview – DraftKings

What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! WELCOME TO THE 2018 GOLF SEASON!!! I could not be more excited to be back for another season and provide content for DFS On Demand. Last year was fantastic, but there is always room for improvement so let’s start the year off right!

The season gets kicked off in Maui, Hawaii with the Sentry Tournament of Champions. The name of the tournament says it all. this is a 34 man, no cut event,  composed of all of the winners from the 2017 calendar year. The host course is The Plantation Course at Kapalua, a very rare Par 73 that is 7,400 yards in length with only three Par 3s. The fairways at Kapalua are wider than a runway, and because of that are some of the easiest to hit on tour. The winning score at this event in the past five years has ranged from -16 to -30 – buckle up for a birdiefest! The Plantation Course uses very slow, Bermuda grass greens with wild undulations, and because of this, first timers at this event have struggled to get the flat stick going and seldomly have a ton of success.

Stats for the Week

SG:Approach

Birdie or Better Gained

SG:Par 5

Bogey Avoidance

Par 4 Efficiency – 350-400 yards.

Alright, let’s get to the picks!

Staples

My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.

Jordan Spieth – $10,900

If it weren’t for Jordan’s dominance at Augusta, Kapalua would be at the top of the list for elite course history. In three trips to the Plantation course, Spieth has three top 3s and a win in 2016. He is shockingly not the highest priced golfer, which makes him a value play at the top even if it is only a couple $100 bucks. In the most recent event we have to look at, albeit the Hero World Challenge, Spieth came 3rd. I’d be shocked if he isn’t in the final pairing on Sunday.

Hideki Matsuyama – $9,800

If you aren’t familiar with my articles, I have a little motto/series of questions I like to ask that has worked out quite well in the past. Question 1 – Is there a cut? No. Question 2 – Is Hideki in the field? If yes – PLAY HIDEKI!!! After his win at the WGC – Bridgestone Invitational last year, Matsuyama had collected three wins and a runner up finish in his previous five no cut events. Just an insane run. I’ll slide in the fact that he came T5 at the Hero World Challenge so his form is where it needs to be.

Marc Leishman – $9,000

The best thing I like about Leishman this week, is the fact I do not anticipate his ownership being very high relative to the field. His $9,000 price tag lands in a tricky spot, and I expect rosters to be constructed with two higher priced golfers, forcing a lot of people to overlook Leishman. Also, for whatever reason, Aussies have had tremendous success at this event. Perhaps it’s the windy playing conditions or even the location on the PGA schedule (there are a few Australian events at the end of November/early December). Geoff Ogilvy, Stuart Appleby and Steve Elkington are all multiple time winners of this event – so let’s hope the Aussie tradition holds up with Leishman. Leish finished 2017 on a remarkable run, winning a FedEx Cup playoff event and throwing in a couple top 5s along the way. I expect big things for him in 2018, so why not get the season started off right in Hawaii.

Pat Perez – $8,000

Who else is ready to eat the Pat Perez chalk with me? With good reason, Perez is going to be a popular play this week but is still an option in all formats. He is affordable and played very well in the fall swing season, collecting a win in Malaysia and a T5 in South Korea. Perez has the all around game to get the job done here and it showed with his T3 here last year. He’s locked and loaded in my cash lineup this week and a finish outside the top 10 would be shocking.

Cameron Smith – $7,600

There isn’t a hotter golfer in this field than Cam Smith right now. He has four straight top five finishes worldwide, while winning the Australian PGA Championship. Smith is a first timer at this event, but he does have the Australian narrative working in his favour. Cam will be able to handle the winds if they do pick up over the week. In his past 24 recorded rounds, he ranks 12th in the field in BoB Gained, a stat that will bode well if this event becomes a shootout.

Tournament of Champions Interactive Data

Note these tools are FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “ERIC” for 15% off:

[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]

Perfect Pivots

Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.

Justin Thomas – $11,100

The defending champ and 2017 Player of the Year a pivot? Looks like it. On FanShareSports.com, JT has the fewest tags of anyone priced above $10K. Spieth will be the highest owned in that group and JT’s price makes it a little more difficult to build an eye popping lineup. We have got to learn from the past that JT is a perfect tournament option regardless of his price. He could easily run away with this event and no one would be shocked if he defends his title. Add on the fact he will be the lowest owned elite golfer in the field? How can anyone pass that up.

Brian Harman – $8,700

Brian Harman is easily going to be the lowest owned golfer above $8K. He only has 11 tags on FanShare Sports with his price tag making it difficult to roster. Harman is a close second to Cam Smith in terms of recent form entering this event. He has a T5, 8th and T4 in his last three events. Harman also loves Bermuda grass greens. He ranks second in this field in SG:Putting on Bermuda grass over his past 50 rounds.

Xander Schauffele – $8,500

It didn’t take long for the Xander buzz to quickly fizzle out. The 2017 rookie of the year only has five tags on FanShare and is another guy who falls in a tricky range in terms of lineup construction. It is Schauffele’s first trip to Kapalua, so the potential of a long adjustment period to these greens is possible. However, I believe Schauffele is the type of talent that can overcome the first time narrative, just like Jon Rahm. Xander is one of my favorite tournament plays and is a guy who has shown he can beat the world’s best in the past.

Automatic Fades

Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.

Kevin Chappell – $7,700

There are a few things that scare me with Kevin Chappell this week. First, this is his first trip to Kapalua and I am worried he is going to fall into the trap a lot of newbies experience. He is not a good putter on Bermuda greens, ranks 29th in the field over his past 50 rounds on Bermuda greens. He also played fairly poorly to finish the 2017 season. This scary combination of lack of course history, shaking putting and below average recent form will force Chappell off of my lineups this week.

Patton Kizzire – $7,300

Tough in a field of 34 with no cut to come up with fades, but Kizzire is a guy who won’t sniff a roster this week. Again, the first time narrative is in effect. Kizzire really struggled most of last year and had one of the worst seasons out of the “champions” in this field. $7,300 is a little rich as well, especially when Brendan Steele and Dufner are priced right around him.

So, you got burned?

Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.

It’s been so long since these guys had a chance to burn us! Tune in next week when we have some options to jump back on.

Thanks for reading the Sentry Tournament of Champions preview article! You can follow me on Twitter for more golf and betting talk! Also, make sure you check out @FanShareSports. They track and curate content produced across the DFS Golf industry, and highlight which players are being tagged or talked about the most, translating to an excellent ownership guide.

Good luck this week everybody!!