MLB Preview, Friday June 23rd – DraftKings & Fanduel

MLB Preview, Friday June 23rd – DraftKings & Fanduel

Pitchers:

Chris Archer is my preferred play over Stephen Strasburg. Archer is a pitcher that has massive home/road splits, and we get him in the Trop vs. the Orioles. Archer has massive K potential vs. right handed bats, and benefits from a big ballpark. SP2 in cash games I think should be Alex Wood. The Rockies aren’t very dangerous on the road, and Wood has been excellent this season. Wood has scored no less then 17.32 points since late April. If you want to save some salary in the second pitcher spot, I’m looking  Luis Perdomo vs. the Tigers. We should see at least 7 righties in the lineup, so Lamet will hold the platoon advantage in most of the matchups. His slider has been filthy, with a swinging strike rate of 24%.

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Hitters:

Arizona Diamondbacks – Super chalky, but this game could get out of hand. The top of the order is so much better than the bottom, but the price tags are up there. Keep it simple, Goldy, Peralta, Lamb, Owings and Drury/whoever leads off.

Milwaukee Brewers – Folty struggles against left handed bats, so fire up Thames Shaw and Sogard. It is a favorable ballpark to lefties, in Atlants, so hopefully Thames brakes out of his slump.

Houston Astros – They probably will go over looked in this spot facing Felix Hernandez coming off the DL, but they might be able to score a lot of runs. Springer might not play, so check back on this one. If Springer is out, I probably wouldn’t roll out the stack.

Texas Rangers – Tanaka has given up quite a few HRs this season. The Rangers have left handed mashers in their lineup, that are pure boom or bust plays. I may not stack this team if Springer plays, but if he doesn’t, this stack is in play in large field tournaments. I prefer the lefties, with Beltre and Napoli.

C: Posey McCan, Rupp

1B: Encarnacion, Bour, Smoak, Adams

2B: Taylor, Happ, Pinder

3B: Bryant, Turner, Seager

SS: Turner, Baez, Riddle

OF: Harper, Dickerson, Khris Davis, Yelich, Altherr, Kendrick, Mallex Smith, Heredia

My home run calls of the day (non Chase Field) are Travis Shaw and Rougned Odor

The Travelers Championship, “The Charts” – DraftKings

The Travelers Championship, “The Charts” – DraftKings

Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.

Salary Vs. Vegas Odds

While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. The first standout this week comes in the form of Lucas Glover who’s odds are roughly 100:1 to win despite the fact that Glover will cost you only $6,600 towards the salary cap to get him in your lineups. Particularly in a marginal field like the one this week, Glover’s price certainly does stand out, and on a course with much slower greens, Glover’s putting weakness may be masked enough to make him a great GPP play. The other standout is probably one that you’ve heard mentioned elsewhere in Charley Hoffman. It seems fairly obvious that Hoffman is under priced this week, which is in agreement with the charts. Hoffman has made eight of his last nine cuts and is trending upward with his recent eighth place finish at the U.S. Open.

Click To Enlarge!

Salary Vs. Ownership Projections

For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. If you’ve been following this article series regularly you will have become used to the idea that the highest priced golfers are typically going to be the highest owned golfers on the slate with a few exceptions. This week just might be an exception with Justin Thomas and Paul Casey offering massive discounts in comparison to several golfers who just recently missed the cut in the $11,000 and up range. While some of this depends on whether the general public decides they aren’t worried about Jason Day and Rory McIlroy’s recent missed cuts at the U.S. Open. The only other really interesting standout on the ownership chart this week is Jim Furyk who is currently projected at under 5% ownership, in part because of his massive price jump between last week and this week. Jim Furyk has played poorly all year, however finished twenty-third last week at the U.S. Open and managed to shoot professional golf’s first ever 58 at this course last year which probably has led to the price jump. I will be taking a wait and see approach with Jim Furyk, but if you think he continues to trend upward, now would be the time to nab him at super low ownership.

Click To Enlarge!

Salary Vs. OWGR

Do you wonder how quickly the salaries are adjusted as a result of player’s performance? Ever wonder if there are players who’s prices don’t reflect their overall skill? These are questions you should be asking every week if you are serious about DFS, and now you can get the answer in one easy chart. This week’s OWGR chart has some very interesting standouts this week, one of whom is Wesley Bryan who’s official world golf ranking is 40th in the world despite his sub $7k price tag. Wes Bryan has been particularly bad over the course of the last month following his first win on tour having missed three of his last four cuts and finishing no better than 45th place. At some point I expect Wes Bryan to bounce back, and why not this week on a course that plays to Bryan’s strengths? Wes Bryan has the game to win an event like this and is going to be my super sleeper to win here

Click To Enlarge!

 

 

Travelers Championship Research Spreadsheet

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Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.

PGA Preview, Travelers Championship – DraftKings

PGA Preview, Travelers Championship – DraftKings

What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! The U.S. Open has come and gone. Hopefully you were able to dodge the landmines from last week (I sure wasn’t) and win some money! It was good to see Brooks Koepka finally break through in a big spot. The amount of love he will receive for the remainder of the year will be crazy.

Next up, the Travelers Championship hosted at TPC River Highlands in Cromwell, Connecticut! TPC River Highlands is a 6,800 yard Par 70, so it will look a bit different than last week. This course will feature 12 Par 4s, eight of which fall inside the range of 400-450 yards. The Par 5 13th will be reachable by most golfers, so Par 5 scoring this week will be less important than normal. The key thing about TPC River Highlands is that it is a Pete Dye designed course, meaning there will be a lot of ‘“less than driver” holes and emphasis will be placed on ball placement off the tee and approach shots. This is not a bomb and gouge type of track, so accuracy styled golfers will be in the mix. This event tends to be a bit of a birdiefest, so Birdie or Better Percentage will be a key stat this week. As mentioned, approach shots and good drives will be important, so golfers who rank highly in Strokes Gained Approach and Good Drive Percentage will get a boost. Par 4 Scoring Average and Bogey Avoidance will also garner some attention.

Alright, let’s get to the picks!

Staples

My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.

Jordan Spieth -$11,400

The top of the board is a little more loaded than we would typically expect the week after a major. McIlroy, Day and Spieth have all made their way to Connecticut to play in the Travelers. For me, I am locking in Jordan Spieth in cash. He has the best SG:App number in the field and has an excellent Par 4 scoring average. His putter of all things has been letting him down lately. The greens at TPC River Highlands are typically slower than an average PGA Tour course, which could give Spieth the confidence he seems to be lacking with the flat stick.

Brendan Steele – $9,000

Brendan Steele is back! After coming out of the gates hot this season, he cooled off and people seemed to have forgotten about him. He re-emerged last week at the U.S. Open and looks to be in peak form entering the Travelers. Steele is solid across the board in terms of stats, has outstanding course history and is showing the form required to win. He has made four straight cuts at this event, finishing inside the top 25 every time and came 5th back in 2014. Steele also came 6th at The Players this year, another Pete Dye designed course. Everything for Steele is lining up and pointing towards another high finish.

Kyle Stanley – $8,600

Kyle Stanley has come so close a few times this season, and he will be back in the hunt this week at the Travelers. He ranks 1st in my weighted stat model, ranking inside the top 13 in all of the stats I am looking for on the week. That alone makes me want to go all in. Stanley has two top 6 finishes in his last four events, one of which came at The Players. If he keeps knocking at the door like he has been this season, eventually something is going to crack. I do not want to miss the boat when Stanley is hoisting a trophy on Sunday.

Bud Cauley $7,400

In a similar situation to Stanley, Bud Cauley has been close a few times this season and his breakout tournament is right around the corner. Cauley did miss the cut last week at Erin Hills, but I like him to bounce back this week. Cauley has an elite SG:App number, ranking 4th in this field. He has an 11th place finish under his belt at this event, back in 2011. Cauley also came T9 at RBC Heritage, which is played at Hilton Head, also played on a Pete Dye designed course.

Charley Hoffman – $7,300

The price this week on Charley Hoffman makes absolutely no sense, and is drawing me even non-Hoffman people like me, towards him. He is the 16th most tagged golfer on FanShareSports.com, but I expect that number to continue to climb until lineup lock. His last four trips to the Travelers have resulted in top 26 efforts, including a runner up performance back in 2012. He played extremely well last week at the U.S. Open, gained a lot of T.V. time, which will likely boost his ownership. Hoffman is cash viable this week and oh, his betting odds suggest he should be priced about $1,500 higher.

Byeong Hun An – $7,100

Byeong Hun An scorched me last week, but I am willing to get back on the wagon and you should too. He is simply to pure of a ball striker to be priced at $7,100 in this week of a field. He ranks 7th this week in SG:App and makes a ton of birdies on Par 4s. His putter can go colder than a polar bear’s toenail, but as mentioned above with Spieth, these greens man give An a chance to get the putter rolling. His price tag seems to be stuck in this range and I will continue to play him until it gets corrected.

Travelers Championship Research Spreadsheet

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Perfect Pivots

Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.

Patrick Reed – $9,500

It seems as though people are hesitant to jump back on Patrick Reed after seeing a solid showing at the U.S. Open. Reed only has 11 mentions on FanShareSports, much lower than every other golfer in the $9K range. Reed’s T13 last week was easily his most impressive finish of the season. The 65 he shot on the Saturday of a major was overshadowed by Justin Thomas’s performance, but was still very impressive. Reed has had a couple of top 20 finishes at the Travelers Championship in the last four years, so this course certainly fits his eye. If the chatter around Reed remains low for the rest of the week, he will become my favorite GPP play of the week. The Travelers seems like a typical event Reed would win.

Brian Harman – $8,900

When I first drafted this article up, Harman fell under the Automatic Fades category. But after further thought and checking out FanShareSports, he makes for a great pivot. The narrative that his runner up finish at the U.S. Open will be too emotionally draining and he won’t be able to carry over his form to this week is garbage. It is not like Harman lost the U.S. Open. Koepka went out and won the thing. Harman has nothing to hang his head about and is coming into the Travelers in excellent form. His price will scare people away, likely the reason why his sentiment rating on FanShareSports is 50/50. People will be fading one of the hottest golfers in the field because they think he will be upset about last week.

Kevin Tway – $8,200

All it took for the buzz to die off on Kevin Tway was a missed cut at the Memorial and a week off during the U.S. Open. Tway use to be one of the most talked about golfers on a weekly basis in the month of May. Now, Tway only has five tags on FanShareSports, priced in a crowded $8,000 range with lots of interesting options. His price tag seems a little high at first glance, but if you are building balanced lineups this week, he makes for a perfect pivot option. Tway’s form has been excellent and there is no reason for the buzz to have died off as quickly as it has.

Martin Laird – $7,300

The low $7K range is loaded with popular options. An, Hoffman and Cauley will attract a ton of ownership and allow Martin Laird to fly under the radar. Laird only has one tag on FanShareSports while the other mentioned golfers all have over 14. Laird is trending in the right direction after experiencing a lull in his season. He has made his last two cuts, and his T32 last week shows that his game is in good shape. Laird had a 15th place finish at the Travelers in 2015, a result he could easily replicate this year.

Automatic Fades

Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.

Jim Furyk – $8,500

Jim Furyk received a healthy price increase after his T23 result last week at Erin Hills. Prior to the U.S. Open, Furyk missed six straight cuts. I am going to take a wait and see approach with Furyk at this higher than expected price tag. I am willing to risk the fact that his form might be back, and since I do not see Furyk finishing inside the top 20 this week, fading Jimmy won’t burn me at the end of the day.

Daniel Summerhays – $8,100

I will continue to fade Daniel Summerhays as long as he is priced at this egregious tag. Summerhays ranks 111th in the field in SG:App, 116th in Par 4 scoring average, 100th in BoB% and 124th in Bogey Avoidance. There is no way in hell I could be convinced to roster Summerhays this week. His 11th place result at this event last year will put people on him, but do not look over the fact he missed the cut each of the three years prior.

Chad Campbell -$8,000

$8,000 for Chad Campbell? No thanks. His form is solid as of late and has decent course history, but I cannot pay this much for the 116th ranked birdie maker in the field. Campbell’s betting odds are in line with Lucas Glover, an eerily similar golfer, for $1,400 dollars. Do not spend up for Campbell when there are so many better options priced way lower.

So, you got burned?

Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.

Rory McIlroy – $11,600

Rory talked the talk last week at Erin Hills, but he came well short of walking the walk. He was brutal last week, missing a ton of fairways and hitting it out of the fescue more than anyone (so it seemed). Rory will be avoided at the top because of last week’s scare, but his driver won’t be needed nearly as much this week. All of the golfers at the top have to be played this week because the gap between them and the rest of the field is larger than normal. Rory also got into it on Twitter with Steve Elkington, and a fire could be lit under Rory’s ass this week to come out and dominate.

Daniel Berger – $9,000

Daniel Berger won two weeks ago at the St. Jude Classic, and like so many other top players, missed the cut at the U.S. Open. Now is definitely not the time to jump ship. He is being overlooked in his price range for other golfers, Steele, Snedeker and Finau to name a few. I think Berger has a great chance of being single digit owned in large tournaments. He finished 5th here last year and so far in his young career, Berger seems to be the type of golfer that will play well at specific events.

Wesley Bryan – $6,800

Wesley Bryan had a disastrous Friday at the U.S. Open, leaving him in second to last before the cut. Time to hit reset Wes. It wasn’t too long ago when we were paying five digits for Bryan in Puerto Rico. Sure, that was a terrible field but his game hasn’t fallen off that far. He won earlier this year at the RBC Heritage, so he has an eye for Pete Dye designed tracks. I like Bryan to get back on track this week and he will end up being one of the best value plays on the board.

Lucas Glover – $6,600

Now this is a Lucas Glover price I can get behind. For weeks, Glover was being priced well above his clone in Kyle Stanley, and I just could not pull the trigger on him. Now Glover has plummeted to $6,600 and he becomes a must play in all formats. His missed cut from last week should suppress his ownership a bit, as he ranks 25th in tags on FanShareSports. His outstanding tee to green game will play nicely at TPC River Highlands.

Thanks for reading The Travelers Championship preview article! You can follow me on Twitter for more golf and betting talk! Also, make sure you check out @FanShareSports. They track and curate content produced across the DFS Golf industry, and highlight which players are being tagged or talked about the most, translating to an excellent ownership guide.

Good luck this week everybody!!

 

 

MLB Preview, Tuesday June 20th – DraftKings & Fanduel

MLB Preview, Tuesday June 20th – DraftKings & Fanduel

Pitchers:

Today’s pitching options are few and far between. At the to Chris Sale is my man today. He has been the pitcher in the MLB this season and K’s too many hitters to pass up. Yes he is very expensive so a fade in tournaments is always in play, but I have a value guy that could allow you to get Sale comfortably. If you’re nuts you could play Mr. boom or bust himself Francisco Liriano, but I’m not that nuts. Brandon McCarthy and Francis Martes are the two value guys I’m looking to today. I prefer Martes, with a better matchup, big ballpark and strikeout upside. We don’t know a lot about him, but he is a good option to save salary. McCarthy might be the safer play, because few people hit him hard. The macthup isn’t the best, but the Mets are banged up and could roll out a pretty bad lineup.

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Hitters:

(Non Coors)

Seattle Mariners – They burned me today, but that won’t stop me from playing them today. Jordan Zimmermann isn’t good anymore. He can’t throw the ball past people, and his pitches get hit hard. Everyone is in play.

Clevland Indians – Chris Tilman has not pitched well this season. A .452 wOBA to lefties, which won’t help him at all with the Indians switch hitters. They have been fairly hot, and I expect it to continue. I prefer the lefties.

New York Yankees – They are at home vs. a pitcher that is relatively unknown. What we do know is that he does struggle to righties. It is a small sample size but the Yankees have right handed mashers that can tear Bridwell up.

C: Lucroy, Grandal, Norris

1B: Bellinger, Rizzo, Thames, Belt

2B: Dozier, Taylor, Panik, Camargo

3B: Donaldson, Shaw, Machado,

SS: Andrus, Crawford, Drew,

OF: Harper, Stanton, Ozuna, Seth Smith, Goodwin, Span, Moore,

Homerun call of the day:

Aaron Judge (shocking I know) and a lower owned guy, Manny Machado.

 

PGA Travelers Championship Research Spreadsheet

PGA Travelers Championship Research Spreadsheet

Defending Champ, Russel Knox, will head back to Cromwell, CT to defend his title. This week’s Research Spreadsheet includes:

*NEW* Key Stats – Breakdown and ranking of “Key Stats” for the this tournament, with new scoring system.
*NEW* Last Week – A transparent look into the Key Stats for last week and how the player’s finished.
Past Performances – How players have fared at this tournament in the past, broken down by year.
Historic Performances – How players have fared at this tournament in the past, by totals (since inception – min three appearances)
Recent Performance- Full stats for the L5 years at this tournament and L10 weeks on TOUR.
Full Box Scores – All final performance stats for years 2016, 2015 and 2014.
Betting Odds – Odds for each player to win top 5 and top 10
DraftKings Salaries, Fanduel Salaries, FantasyDraft Salaries

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MLB Preview, Monday June 19th – DraftKings & Fanduel

MLB Preview, Monday June 19th – DraftKings & Fanduel

Pitchers:

11 games with Clayton Kershaw on the numb, and yes he is a good play. The Mets batters are mostly left handed, so Kershaw should be able to dominate. The problem is he costs $13,500 on Draftkings, and fitting in bats are difficult. Brad Peacock faces the A’s in Oakland. The A’s strikeout the 4th most to RHPs this season, and Peacock loves the K’s. He’s $8,100, with elite upside with at least 8Ks in 4 of his last 5 starts. Other than that the cheap options are very thin. Sam Gaviglio has been solid over his last 3 starts.

Hitters:

Seattle Mariners – They face Anibal Sanchez, so ya this could get ugly. Sanchez is flat out awful, making his first start in the MLB this season. Everyone is in play.

Houston Astros – You won’t be able to get Kershaw and this stack, but going low on your SP2 can get you Altuve, Springer, Correa and other Astros. They find themselves in a glorious matchup vs. Daniel Gossett in Oakland.

C: Wieters, Lucroy, Barnhardt

1B: Bellinger, Thames, Belt, Bour

2B: Murphy, Happ, Sogard

3B: Donaldson, Shaw, Gallo, Suarez

SS: Seager, Crawford, Riddle

OF: Harper, Dickerson, Kemp, Mallex Smith, Hamilton, Tyler Moore,

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