by RickRunGood | Jan 24, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, NBA |
Russell Westbrook gets a significant price increase tonight to $12,800 from $11,500. That might scare some owners away, but Westbrook is still “invest-able” tonight. He’s had a price tag of $12.8K or high on eight separate occasions this season. He’s averaging 63.7 DK PPG in those games and the matchup with New Orleans is sublime. In two meetings, Westbrook is averaging 68.6 DK PPG against the Pellies who are one of the worst teams in the league against point guards. I don’t need to tell you that Russell is a walking triple-double who has scored 70+ DK points in six of his last ten.
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The GPP play of the day appears to be Nicolas Batum. He’s a true five category player who can fill it up across the board. The problem for Batum is that he’s been extremely volatile. His last four games have notched 20.75, 44.75, 27 and 38.25 DraftKings points. That’s really just a microcosm of his season. Facing the Warriors tonight should increase the pace for the Hornets and put Batum in a good situation. If you can stomach the risk, you may be able to unlock the reward.
If DeMar DeRozan doesn’t suit up again tonight, expect Norman Powell to slide back into the starting lineup. Powell started last night and played 39 minutes while contributing a 16-4-2-2-1 line. He’s a capable scorer in this league and should go overlooked amongst his Raptors teammates in terms of ownership. You’ll be hard pressed to find someone under $4,000 who will play as many minutes as Norman Powell.
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I am in love with DeMarcus Cousins tonight. He’s an absolute monster who is going to take 20+ shots and clean the glass. He’s scored 53+ DK points in six of his last seven while notching more than 63 DraftKings points in two of his last four. Cousins probably has a 20% chance of being the highest scoring player on the slate and he’s $2,000 cheaper than Russell Westbrook. It’s been the Boogie show all season, but he will be asked to carry the Kings without Rudy Gay for the rest of the season. The big concern here is that the Cavs might blow this game wide open and keep Cousins on the bench late in the game.
Here’s Marc Gasol‘s last four games: 46.75, 42.5, 47.75 and 48.25. That is very quietly producing 6x value in each and every game. He has scored at least 24 real points in each of those contests and is averaging 28 PPG in that span. For a big man, he won’t contribute too much on the glass, but he’s a capable facilitator and is in the midst of his best stretch of basketball this season.
by RickRunGood | Jan 20, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, NBA |
James Harden has been ridiculous and his current salary reflect that. He’s averaging 64.5 DK points over the last six games but you have to be a little concerned over this matchup. Harden is averaging just 47 DraftKings PPG against the Grizzlies this season in two meetings. That includes a 43 DK point game just a week ago. Harden has finished outside the top 10 in scoring for the slate on just eight occasions this season, with two of them coming again Memphis. Listen, don’t get me wrong, guys like Harden are usually matchup proof but I am exercising extreme caution here.
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The explosive Will Barton has seen an influx of minutes with teammate Gary Harris injured. Barton logged 35 and 36 minutes in his last two, a feat that he hadn’t accomplished since December 8th. Barton parlayed those minutes into 45 and 35.25 DraftKings points, while taking a combined 28 shots. He’s volatile, but can heat up in a hurry. Expect a nice outing against a decimated Clippers team that will have to travel to the Mile High City.
Few teams will ever get a benefit of pace, quite like the Jazz will get tonight. Utah is dead last in possessions per game (94) but will face Indy who is a top ten team, averaging nearly 102 possessions per game. That boost should benefit Gordon Hayward who is averaging 38.8 DK PPG over his last four contests which includes a subpar 29.5 point game in his last time out. He gets a $700 discount from that game and is a true four category scorer. His ownership will likely check in at single digits.
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I don’t love the PF position, but hard to dismiss the discount on Wilson Chandler. He turned in a 30 DK points game on Tuesday with a $6,700 price tag, then missed Thursday’s game for personal reasons. He comes in today at $5,800, which is very reasonable for a guy who’s averaged 34.3 DK points in his last four games. Another game like that would be worth 6x value at this price. Chandler is five fantasy points better at home this season and could be in line for big minutes with the Nuggets thin up front.
Oh man, keep an eye on the Sixers reports. Joel Embiid is expected to sit for rest on the second half of a back-to-back. The last time he sat, last Saturday, Jahlil Okafor started and played 35 minutes. He turned that into a 26-9 night for 39.75 DraftKings points. His minutes have been (very) few and far between but he’s extremely motivated when he steps on the court to prove he deserves more PT. He’s cracked 28 minutes on five different occasions this season, averaging 30.8 DK PPG in those contests.
by RickRunGood | Jan 16, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, NBA |
An interesting situation is developing in Dallas. Deron Williams has compiled two big games in a row, registering double-doubles in both. He’s returned his owners 46.5 and 38 DraftKings points, two of his best games in the last month or so. Williams is now compiling a solid 32.6 DK PPG over his last five contests and now has a date with the Bulls. Williams faced Chicago once this season, scoring 35.5 DraftKings points while dishing out 15 assists. Williams is a viable option on the short slate.
Today’s Projections | NBA Game Logs | Player Scoring Calendar
DeMar DeRozan is having an excellent season so many owners are licking their chops over this matchup with Brooklyn. I’m a little more cautious, however. For whatever reason, DeRozan has really struggled against Brooklyn this season. In two meetings, he scored 20.75 and 36 DraftKings points. Those are his worst and 11th worst games of the season. DeRozan is averaging over 35 MPG this season, but only played 29 and 30 minutes in those Brooklyn games. The Raptors are listed as an 11 point favorite in this game, which could lead to another short night for DeDe.
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Remember when Jimmy Butler was sick and ended up scoring one point in 29 minutes? In the two games since, Butler has been back to his normal self, scoring 59 and 40.5 DraftKings points. If you throw out the “sick” game, Butler is averaging 57.8 DraftKings points over his last six contests. Butler is five fantasy points better at home this season, which is where he will battle Dallas tonight. Butler can do it all and he’s primed for a chance to do it again tonight.
Julius Randle is the ultimate GPP candidate tonight. He’s had two brutal games in a row and gets a price increase tonight. That is certainly going to drive away his potential owners. If you’re willing to look past those two games, Randle has been excellent. He’s averaging 38.75 DK PPG in the seven games prior to his downers. He’s averaging 34.5 DK PPG at home this season, which is six points better than on the road. Denver plays at the 5th fastest pace in the league, which should give the Lakers a nice little boost this evening.
by RickRunGood | Jan 14, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, NBA |
Hmm, have you noticed what Ricky Rubio has been up to? Mostly thanks to the absence of Zach Lavine, it’s been the Ricky Rubio show in Minnesota. He’s scored 51.75, 42.25 and 47 DraftKings points in his last three games. It shouldn’t surprise you that those are his best, second-best and fourth-best fantasy games of the season. His massive assist totals are simply eye-popping, averaging 15.3 dimes per game in this stretch. This matchup with Dallas should have you salivating. The Mavericks were one of the teams that Rubio shredded this week, to the tune of 51.75 DraftKings points. I’d like him even more if LaVine doesn’t play again, but at this cost he might be worth firing up regardless.
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He’s a risky option, but take a close look at Tony Allen for today. Allen is coming off a 22-4-3 game for 32 DraftKings points. Allen is an excellent defender and willing rebounder but he’s not known for his offensive prowess. Despite that, this is the second time in his last four games that he’s scored 32+ DraftKings points. He laid eggs in the other two, so trusting him will be difficult.
I’m reminding you that DeMarre Carroll is off his minutes restrictions and his price has caught up yet. Carroll is averaging 35.6 MPG over his last five and it looks like he’s starting to find his groove. Over the last three games, he’s averaging 21.6 PPG and 7.6 RPG, which is good for 32.75 DK PPG. Another such game tonight would be worth 6.6x value.
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Zach Randolph is dominating on a point per minute basis. He’s averaging 34.1 DP PPG over his last three, without playing more than 27 minutes in any game. If you go back four games, he’s averaging 1.37 DraftKings point per minute. For reference, that’s similar production to the season averages for Chris Paul (1.39), John Wall (1.21) and just a bit below Anthony Davis (1.47). Randolph is coming off the bench and dominating the second unit of his opponents. Tonight he will face a thin front-court of Chicago. The Bulls also allow the 7th most points in the paint this season. That’s a good sign for Randolph who does most of his work in that zone:
I love Karl-Anthony Towns. I mean, I love him in general, but I really love him tonight. On DraftKings, the Mavericks OPRK is 1st. That means they allow the fewest DraftKings points to opposing centers. A matchup that “bad” usually has owners running for the hills. Towns does not care about that rank and dropped a 34-11 game on the Mavs just six days ago. That was worth 62.75 DraftKings points. How good has Towns been this week? How about games of 62.75, 59.5 and 62.25 DraftKings points. Especially if LaVine sits, the other Timberwolves are shouldering a larger offensive role. This may be an opportunity to get the premier Center option at a lower ownership percent.
by RickRunGood | Jan 12, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, NBA |
I’d usually write about Kemba Walker here, but you’ve seen that enough. I’m looking at Kyle Lowry who is absolutely scorching right now for the Raptors. He’s scored at least 49 DraftKings points in seven of his last ten games, with two games of 63+ in that span. The amount of minutes he plays is fairly ridiculous. He’s notched at least 40 (!!) minutes in four straight games. You’d think that Lowry would be launching a ton of shots in this stretch, but that’s not necessarily the case. Don’t get me wrong, he’s likely to take between 15-17 shots a night, but he’s filling it up in four categories. The most valuable are steals which he’s racked up multiple steals in 8 of 10.
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This might be a good time to buy on Marcus Smart. He hasn’t been a secret since filling in for the injured Avery Bradley. Smart exploded in the first two games of Bradley’s absence, scoring 44.25 and 37.5 DraftKings points. The industry flocked to Smart as the flavor of the week and he laid an egg on Wednesday night for only 19 DraftKings points. I suspect there are a lot of jaded owners tonight who will avoid Smart, despite the excellent position he’s in. With Bradley already ruled out, I am willing to give Smart an opportunity to bounceback.
On the flip side of this game, an interesting value has emerged in Thabo Sefolosha. Without Kyle Korver to compete with, we should see Sefolosha start and play close to 30 minutes a night. He’s never going to score 20 points in a game, but he’s a true five category contributor. Seriously, go check his game logs and see his sneaky upside that has scored 23+ DK points in five of nine. Sefolosha is definitely a player trending upwards with opportunity.
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The Spencer Hawes revenge game! Hawes returns to Philadelphia to battle his old team and he is in the midst of the best run of his season. Hawes scored 18 real points on the 5th, which was a season high. He immediately followed that up with 16 points in his next game, which is his second best total. He’s now averaging 25.6 MPG and 28 DK PPG over his last three games. Another such game tonight would be worth 6.5x value.
Ready to get back on Hassan Whiteside? He turned in four really poor games in a row before exploding for a massive 61.5 DraftKings points on Tuesday night. That was courtesy of a 28-20 game. Before his down stretch, Whiteside was one of the highest fantasy producers this season and now he’s priced to move. A juicy matchup with Milwaukee is on tap tonight. The Bucks had no answer for Hassan in their only meeting this season. Whiteside hauled in 17 boards and added 12 points for a 50.25 DraftKings point game.
by RickRunGood | Jan 11, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, NBA |
This is your chance to buy low on Steph Curry who is averaging 53 DraftKings points over his last four games. Something has clicked for Curry who has turned the corner after a very slow start to the season. In terms of fantasy scoring, Curry has had three of his best eight games during this recent stretch and is launching 48 threes in his last four games. Speaking of shot attempts, Curry has taken at least 21 shots in each of his last four, now tallying nine such games on the season. Here’s an underpriced stud who is trending back towards his uber-elite status.
Today’s Projections | NBA Game Logs | Player Scoring Calendar
Hard to overlook Dwyane Wade who will be the main source of offense for the Bulls tonight. Both Nikola Mirotic and Jimmy Butler are already ruled out for tonight and Wade’s usage rate spikes to 41% without Butler in the lineup. This is the perfect storm for Wade who is coming off a rest day Tuesday, which is always good for the 34 year old legs. A date with the Knicks, who played last night, at the Mecca of basketball is just want the doctor ordered for a massive game.
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Harrison Barnes is very quietly filling up the stat sheet this month. In the last four games, Barnes is tallying 36.1 DK PPG and is coming off a 30 points effort while launching 23 shots. Unfortunately, Barnes fantasy production is very closely tied to his real scoring. However, a date with the Suns should be useful tonight. Phoenix is one of the worst defenses in the league and they play at a breakneck pace which should allow a few extra possessions tonight.
Don’t forget LaMarcus Aldridge tonight after missing Tuesday’s game with an illness. Aldridge is ready to suit up for tonight’s contest against the Lakers. He’s scored 40+ DraftKings points on six different occasions in his last ten games and is averagin 43.1 DK PPG in his last four. Aldridge should be drooling to get in this matchup tonight with the Lakers. In their only meeting this season, Aldridge piled on 43 DraftKings points.
Zaza Pachulia is checking in as one of the better values on the slate. At a near minimum price, Zaza is averaging 23 DraftKings points per game in his last four while eclipsing 21 DK points in four of his last five. His minutes are trending up and he’s played 22+ minutes in each of his last three. That’s a feat he’s only accomplished four other times this entire season. He’s a sneaky double-double threa who has a knack for getting in the passing lines and stealing the ball.
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