The Travelers Championship, “The Charts” – DraftKings

The Travelers Championship, “The Charts” – DraftKings

Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.

Salary Vs. Vegas Odds

While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. The first standout this week comes in the form of Lucas Glover who’s odds are roughly 100:1 to win despite the fact that Glover will cost you only $6,600 towards the salary cap to get him in your lineups. Particularly in a marginal field like the one this week, Glover’s price certainly does stand out, and on a course with much slower greens, Glover’s putting weakness may be masked enough to make him a great GPP play. The other standout is probably one that you’ve heard mentioned elsewhere in Charley Hoffman. It seems fairly obvious that Hoffman is under priced this week, which is in agreement with the charts. Hoffman has made eight of his last nine cuts and is trending upward with his recent eighth place finish at the U.S. Open.

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Salary Vs. Ownership Projections

For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. If you’ve been following this article series regularly you will have become used to the idea that the highest priced golfers are typically going to be the highest owned golfers on the slate with a few exceptions. This week just might be an exception with Justin Thomas and Paul Casey offering massive discounts in comparison to several golfers who just recently missed the cut in the $11,000 and up range. While some of this depends on whether the general public decides they aren’t worried about Jason Day and Rory McIlroy’s recent missed cuts at the U.S. Open. The only other really interesting standout on the ownership chart this week is Jim Furyk who is currently projected at under 5% ownership, in part because of his massive price jump between last week and this week. Jim Furyk has played poorly all year, however finished twenty-third last week at the U.S. Open and managed to shoot professional golf’s first ever 58 at this course last year which probably has led to the price jump. I will be taking a wait and see approach with Jim Furyk, but if you think he continues to trend upward, now would be the time to nab him at super low ownership.

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Salary Vs. OWGR

Do you wonder how quickly the salaries are adjusted as a result of player’s performance? Ever wonder if there are players who’s prices don’t reflect their overall skill? These are questions you should be asking every week if you are serious about DFS, and now you can get the answer in one easy chart. This week’s OWGR chart has some very interesting standouts this week, one of whom is Wesley Bryan who’s official world golf ranking is 40th in the world despite his sub $7k price tag. Wes Bryan has been particularly bad over the course of the last month following his first win on tour having missed three of his last four cuts and finishing no better than 45th place. At some point I expect Wes Bryan to bounce back, and why not this week on a course that plays to Bryan’s strengths? Wes Bryan has the game to win an event like this and is going to be my super sleeper to win here

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Travelers Championship Research Spreadsheet

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Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.

PGA Preview, Travelers Championship – DraftKings

PGA Preview, Travelers Championship – DraftKings

What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! The U.S. Open has come and gone. Hopefully you were able to dodge the landmines from last week (I sure wasn’t) and win some money! It was good to see Brooks Koepka finally break through in a big spot. The amount of love he will receive for the remainder of the year will be crazy.

Next up, the Travelers Championship hosted at TPC River Highlands in Cromwell, Connecticut! TPC River Highlands is a 6,800 yard Par 70, so it will look a bit different than last week. This course will feature 12 Par 4s, eight of which fall inside the range of 400-450 yards. The Par 5 13th will be reachable by most golfers, so Par 5 scoring this week will be less important than normal. The key thing about TPC River Highlands is that it is a Pete Dye designed course, meaning there will be a lot of ‘“less than driver” holes and emphasis will be placed on ball placement off the tee and approach shots. This is not a bomb and gouge type of track, so accuracy styled golfers will be in the mix. This event tends to be a bit of a birdiefest, so Birdie or Better Percentage will be a key stat this week. As mentioned, approach shots and good drives will be important, so golfers who rank highly in Strokes Gained Approach and Good Drive Percentage will get a boost. Par 4 Scoring Average and Bogey Avoidance will also garner some attention.

Alright, let’s get to the picks!

Staples

My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.

Jordan Spieth -$11,400

The top of the board is a little more loaded than we would typically expect the week after a major. McIlroy, Day and Spieth have all made their way to Connecticut to play in the Travelers. For me, I am locking in Jordan Spieth in cash. He has the best SG:App number in the field and has an excellent Par 4 scoring average. His putter of all things has been letting him down lately. The greens at TPC River Highlands are typically slower than an average PGA Tour course, which could give Spieth the confidence he seems to be lacking with the flat stick.

Brendan Steele – $9,000

Brendan Steele is back! After coming out of the gates hot this season, he cooled off and people seemed to have forgotten about him. He re-emerged last week at the U.S. Open and looks to be in peak form entering the Travelers. Steele is solid across the board in terms of stats, has outstanding course history and is showing the form required to win. He has made four straight cuts at this event, finishing inside the top 25 every time and came 5th back in 2014. Steele also came 6th at The Players this year, another Pete Dye designed course. Everything for Steele is lining up and pointing towards another high finish.

Kyle Stanley – $8,600

Kyle Stanley has come so close a few times this season, and he will be back in the hunt this week at the Travelers. He ranks 1st in my weighted stat model, ranking inside the top 13 in all of the stats I am looking for on the week. That alone makes me want to go all in. Stanley has two top 6 finishes in his last four events, one of which came at The Players. If he keeps knocking at the door like he has been this season, eventually something is going to crack. I do not want to miss the boat when Stanley is hoisting a trophy on Sunday.

Bud Cauley $7,400

In a similar situation to Stanley, Bud Cauley has been close a few times this season and his breakout tournament is right around the corner. Cauley did miss the cut last week at Erin Hills, but I like him to bounce back this week. Cauley has an elite SG:App number, ranking 4th in this field. He has an 11th place finish under his belt at this event, back in 2011. Cauley also came T9 at RBC Heritage, which is played at Hilton Head, also played on a Pete Dye designed course.

Charley Hoffman – $7,300

The price this week on Charley Hoffman makes absolutely no sense, and is drawing me even non-Hoffman people like me, towards him. He is the 16th most tagged golfer on FanShareSports.com, but I expect that number to continue to climb until lineup lock. His last four trips to the Travelers have resulted in top 26 efforts, including a runner up performance back in 2012. He played extremely well last week at the U.S. Open, gained a lot of T.V. time, which will likely boost his ownership. Hoffman is cash viable this week and oh, his betting odds suggest he should be priced about $1,500 higher.

Byeong Hun An – $7,100

Byeong Hun An scorched me last week, but I am willing to get back on the wagon and you should too. He is simply to pure of a ball striker to be priced at $7,100 in this week of a field. He ranks 7th this week in SG:App and makes a ton of birdies on Par 4s. His putter can go colder than a polar bear’s toenail, but as mentioned above with Spieth, these greens man give An a chance to get the putter rolling. His price tag seems to be stuck in this range and I will continue to play him until it gets corrected.

Travelers Championship Research Spreadsheet

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Perfect Pivots

Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.

Patrick Reed – $9,500

It seems as though people are hesitant to jump back on Patrick Reed after seeing a solid showing at the U.S. Open. Reed only has 11 mentions on FanShareSports, much lower than every other golfer in the $9K range. Reed’s T13 last week was easily his most impressive finish of the season. The 65 he shot on the Saturday of a major was overshadowed by Justin Thomas’s performance, but was still very impressive. Reed has had a couple of top 20 finishes at the Travelers Championship in the last four years, so this course certainly fits his eye. If the chatter around Reed remains low for the rest of the week, he will become my favorite GPP play of the week. The Travelers seems like a typical event Reed would win.

Brian Harman – $8,900

When I first drafted this article up, Harman fell under the Automatic Fades category. But after further thought and checking out FanShareSports, he makes for a great pivot. The narrative that his runner up finish at the U.S. Open will be too emotionally draining and he won’t be able to carry over his form to this week is garbage. It is not like Harman lost the U.S. Open. Koepka went out and won the thing. Harman has nothing to hang his head about and is coming into the Travelers in excellent form. His price will scare people away, likely the reason why his sentiment rating on FanShareSports is 50/50. People will be fading one of the hottest golfers in the field because they think he will be upset about last week.

Kevin Tway – $8,200

All it took for the buzz to die off on Kevin Tway was a missed cut at the Memorial and a week off during the U.S. Open. Tway use to be one of the most talked about golfers on a weekly basis in the month of May. Now, Tway only has five tags on FanShareSports, priced in a crowded $8,000 range with lots of interesting options. His price tag seems a little high at first glance, but if you are building balanced lineups this week, he makes for a perfect pivot option. Tway’s form has been excellent and there is no reason for the buzz to have died off as quickly as it has.

Martin Laird – $7,300

The low $7K range is loaded with popular options. An, Hoffman and Cauley will attract a ton of ownership and allow Martin Laird to fly under the radar. Laird only has one tag on FanShareSports while the other mentioned golfers all have over 14. Laird is trending in the right direction after experiencing a lull in his season. He has made his last two cuts, and his T32 last week shows that his game is in good shape. Laird had a 15th place finish at the Travelers in 2015, a result he could easily replicate this year.

Automatic Fades

Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.

Jim Furyk – $8,500

Jim Furyk received a healthy price increase after his T23 result last week at Erin Hills. Prior to the U.S. Open, Furyk missed six straight cuts. I am going to take a wait and see approach with Furyk at this higher than expected price tag. I am willing to risk the fact that his form might be back, and since I do not see Furyk finishing inside the top 20 this week, fading Jimmy won’t burn me at the end of the day.

Daniel Summerhays – $8,100

I will continue to fade Daniel Summerhays as long as he is priced at this egregious tag. Summerhays ranks 111th in the field in SG:App, 116th in Par 4 scoring average, 100th in BoB% and 124th in Bogey Avoidance. There is no way in hell I could be convinced to roster Summerhays this week. His 11th place result at this event last year will put people on him, but do not look over the fact he missed the cut each of the three years prior.

Chad Campbell -$8,000

$8,000 for Chad Campbell? No thanks. His form is solid as of late and has decent course history, but I cannot pay this much for the 116th ranked birdie maker in the field. Campbell’s betting odds are in line with Lucas Glover, an eerily similar golfer, for $1,400 dollars. Do not spend up for Campbell when there are so many better options priced way lower.

So, you got burned?

Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.

Rory McIlroy – $11,600

Rory talked the talk last week at Erin Hills, but he came well short of walking the walk. He was brutal last week, missing a ton of fairways and hitting it out of the fescue more than anyone (so it seemed). Rory will be avoided at the top because of last week’s scare, but his driver won’t be needed nearly as much this week. All of the golfers at the top have to be played this week because the gap between them and the rest of the field is larger than normal. Rory also got into it on Twitter with Steve Elkington, and a fire could be lit under Rory’s ass this week to come out and dominate.

Daniel Berger – $9,000

Daniel Berger won two weeks ago at the St. Jude Classic, and like so many other top players, missed the cut at the U.S. Open. Now is definitely not the time to jump ship. He is being overlooked in his price range for other golfers, Steele, Snedeker and Finau to name a few. I think Berger has a great chance of being single digit owned in large tournaments. He finished 5th here last year and so far in his young career, Berger seems to be the type of golfer that will play well at specific events.

Wesley Bryan – $6,800

Wesley Bryan had a disastrous Friday at the U.S. Open, leaving him in second to last before the cut. Time to hit reset Wes. It wasn’t too long ago when we were paying five digits for Bryan in Puerto Rico. Sure, that was a terrible field but his game hasn’t fallen off that far. He won earlier this year at the RBC Heritage, so he has an eye for Pete Dye designed tracks. I like Bryan to get back on track this week and he will end up being one of the best value plays on the board.

Lucas Glover – $6,600

Now this is a Lucas Glover price I can get behind. For weeks, Glover was being priced well above his clone in Kyle Stanley, and I just could not pull the trigger on him. Now Glover has plummeted to $6,600 and he becomes a must play in all formats. His missed cut from last week should suppress his ownership a bit, as he ranks 25th in tags on FanShareSports. His outstanding tee to green game will play nicely at TPC River Highlands.

Thanks for reading The Travelers Championship preview article! You can follow me on Twitter for more golf and betting talk! Also, make sure you check out @FanShareSports. They track and curate content produced across the DFS Golf industry, and highlight which players are being tagged or talked about the most, translating to an excellent ownership guide.

Good luck this week everybody!!

 

 

PGA Travelers Championship Research Spreadsheet

PGA Travelers Championship Research Spreadsheet

Defending Champ, Russel Knox, will head back to Cromwell, CT to defend his title. This week’s Research Spreadsheet includes:

*NEW* Key Stats – Breakdown and ranking of “Key Stats” for the this tournament, with new scoring system.
*NEW* Last Week – A transparent look into the Key Stats for last week and how the player’s finished.
Past Performances – How players have fared at this tournament in the past, broken down by year.
Historic Performances – How players have fared at this tournament in the past, by totals (since inception – min three appearances)
Recent Performance- Full stats for the L5 years at this tournament and L10 weeks on TOUR.
Full Box Scores – All final performance stats for years 2016, 2015 and 2014.
Betting Odds – Odds for each player to win top 5 and top 10
DraftKings Salaries, Fanduel Salaries, FantasyDraft Salaries

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PGA Preview, U.S. Open – DraftKings

PGA Preview, U.S. Open – DraftKings

What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! It’s U.S. OPEN WEEK!!! The season’s second major is upon us and the hype around this event is through the roof. I hope you are as excited as I am. It is going to be an incredible week of golf and definitely an interesting one to take a deeper look at. The course, Erin Hills, is a monster and one that no one has real solid grasp of how it will play. It seems as though you can make a case of any golfer, with any style of play. Let’s find some diamonds in the rough, or should I say, FESCUE, and make some money!

The best players in the world are about to take on a daunting task – Erin Hills. This course is loooonnnggg. The yardage will vary from day-to-day with different tee decks being used, but it will be around 7,700 yards on average. What is unique about Erin Hills as a U.S. Open venue, is the fact that it is a Par 72, which will change how leaderboard will look on Sunday. Typical scores at U.S. Opens linger around even par, but with the two additional Par 5s, I can see the final score approach -10.

The fescue has been the talk of the week, and will most certainly carry on through the weekend. Hell, Erin Hills Fescue has it’s own Twitter account. Players have been posting videos about it’s length, most notably Kevin Na who demonstrated how hard it is to hit out of by taking a few half ass hacks at it. First tip of the week – if a golfer is complaining about the course already, fade them. However, recent events have surfaced on Twitter showing the grounds crew at Erin Hills mowing the fescue that was about five yards off of the fairway. Sucks to see the players get their way when this course is set up to be the ultimate test, not a scoringfest. The fairways are incredibly wide at Erin Hills, so most golfers should be able to find the short stuff unless the wind picks up. Rain is in the forecast for the week as well, which will make the course much softer, limiting driver roll out and giving the advantage to the bombers.

Here is how I think the course will play out. Distance will remain king, but you better be accurate if you are going to launch the big stick 12-13 times a round. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee is my highest weighted stat. Give me distance, but accuracy will also be important. Next, Strokes Gained: Approach is my second highest weighted stat. Hitting greens will be crucial. Not only is the fescue around the green deadly, the bunkers may offer a tougher challenge. The bunkers that surround the green are designed in all sorts of weird and wacky shapes and big numbers will be made if a golfer ends up in an awkward location. Due to the course’s length, and the inevitable long irons that will be hit into some of these greens, I am also looking at Scrambling. If golfers begin to miss greens from 200+ yards, saving pars in creative ways will be required to avoid major damage. Par 5 scoring average, Birdie or Better % and Bogey Avoidance will also play a key role as they will have the greatest impact on a golfer’s DraftKings points.

Alright, let’s get to the picks!

Staples

My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.

Dustin Johnson – $12,000

First of all, you cannot go wrong with anyone at the top of this field. They are all elite and can all win. Making a decision a the top will come down to roster construction with the rest of your golfers, the contests you are entering and projected ownership. However, it feels like Dustin Johnson is head and shoulders above the rest of this field in terms of course fit, form and event history. DJ is built for U.S. Opens. His length, approach game and putting are the picture perfect combination for a golfer looking to win this week. He has three straight top five finishes at the U.S. Open. Ever since the Masters incident, I think DJ has been going through the motions with his sights set on Erin Hills.

Rory McIlroy – $11,200

Two guys above $10K in range as staples?!?! Ya, I am getting carried away with lineup building this week. Rory has the potential to be under owned considering his pedigree and course fit. Everyone seems concerned about his rib/back injury, which is fair, but that just creates even more opportunity to capitalize on value. If Rory had no injury concerns and maybe played in one more event since the Players, he would be neck and neck with DJ as the best bet to win. Golf injuries are weird, go unreported and only the player has a feel for the extent. There is a chance the injury has no impact on Rory’s game and everyone who faded him will be kicking themselves on Sunday.

***Phil Mickelson – $8,500

Quick note on Phil Mickelson. If he plays, I love him this week. You have to be on the ball if you are looking to roster him and take advantage of his guaranteed low ownership. It looks as though a rain delay is the only way for him to make his tee time. If you want the opportunity to reap the rewards of rostering Phil, you better be paying close attention to Twitter on Wednesday. He is a must play if he somehow makes his tee time.

Thomas Pieters – $7,700

Thomas Pieters is my pick to win this week. Bold? Sort of, but he is already drawing a ton of attention across the industry. Pieters presents a rare combination of length and wedge play that he was able to demonstrate at Augusta with a T4. He also was holding the 54 hole lead at the BMW PGA Championship a few weeks ago. Pieters is in remarkable form and has the ability to contend in these loaded fields. His $7,700 price tag is easy to fit into all sorts of lineups. I have a good feeling Pieters will be giving DJ a run for his money on Sunday.

Kevin Kisner – $7,500

There are not many golfers in the world playing better than Kisner right now. He won a few weeks ago at the Dean and Deluca, and followed that up with a T6 at the Memorial. Kisner is not super long, but still has a solid SG:OTT ranking because of his deadly accuracy. He ranks 9th in SG:APP and 10th in SG:Putting, two stats that will make up for any lost ground in distance. He currently has the second most tags on FanShareSports, likely meaning he will be the chalk of the $7K range. I am okay to eat the chalk with Kisner this week because I think he has the complete game and outstanding form to put together a high finish.

Byeong Hun An – $6,800

Byeong Hun An comes in way underpriced at $6,800, and people have noticed. He has the 16th most tags on FanShareSports, which is a ton for a golfer priced lower than $7K. An is elite tee to green and will only falter if his approach game is not sharp. He struggles to get up and down, mainly because his putter can run extremely cold. However, he has gained strokes putting in his last three events and his finishes show that. His form, key stats, and trending stats are all pointing in the right direction. I am not worried that An’s putter will run cold this week, making him one of the best values on the board.

Ross Fisher – $6,600

When the DraftKings pricing first came out, I was immediately drawn to Ross Fisher. I knew he price tag would be enticing to a lot of people, but it has been his recent run of solid form that has moved the needle. Fisher has the 20th most tags on FanShareSports, making him a popular value option this week, with good reason of course. Fisher has five worldwide top 10s in his last eight events. On average, he has gained strokes on the field in both SG:OTT and SG:APP for the 2017 season. Fisher will be my highest owned golfer in the sub $7K range.

U.S. Open Research Spreadsheet

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Perfect Pivots

Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.

Jason Day – $10,800

It’s another tournament, and it’s another time Jason Day to show up in the Perfect Pivots segment. Jason Day will be the lowest owned golfer in the $10K+ range. He has the least amount of tags in this range on FanShareSports and is priced above Rahm and Fowler who will bother garner a ton of ownership. In a week with massive DraftKings tournaments and prize pools, being contrarian is a must. Jason Day has a fantastic chance of winning this event and will be low owned doing it.

Paul Casey – $8,400

Paul Casey is getting very little buzz, which is odd because his recent form is great and his price tag is very reasonable. Casey has 18 tags on FanShareSports compared to Branden Grace and Adam Scott who have over 30, priced just above him. Casey doesn’t really fall into the bomber category, but he is an elite ball striker and will have an easier time than most with his long irons. Casey doesn’t have the greatest U.S. Open track record, but his form and stats cannot be ignored.

Tyrrell Hatton – $7,500

The way the week is shaping up, Tyrrell Hatton will be completely overlooked in the mid $7K range. Pieters, Kuchar, Kisner and Noren are hoarding all the tags in this price range on FanShareSports. Hatton only has nine, ranking as the 38th most talked about golfer. Hatton’s remarkable form from earlier this season leaves him with incredible stats – 12th in SG:OTT, 18th in SG:APP, and 1st and SG:Putting in this field. Hatton is world class player and makes for a Perfect Pivot when things go south for the other popular golfers in this range.

Brendan Steele – $7,100

Steele is an interesting golfer week to week. Sometimes, he is the obvious chalk and attracts close to 30% ownership. Other times, like this week, he is an afterthought. He has far fewer tags on FanShareSports compared to golfers in his price range, like Molinari, Weisberger and Kaymer. Steele has made 19 straight cuts, and his 6th place at the Players is very impressive. He is sneaky long, 39th in the field in SG:OTT and has the ball striking abilities to attack these greens from distance. He is a great Par 5 scorer and is top 5 in the field in both scrambling and bogey avoidance. Steele is one of the most overlooked golfers in the field.

Jimmy Walker – $6,700

Jimmy Walker is both underpriced and under appreciated. He won a major in the last calendar year, and I think everyone forgets that. Walker has been playing solid this season, making nine straight cuts including a T18 at the Masters and a T13 at Valero, after his Lyme Disease announcement. Rostering chalk in the $6K range is always risky due to the nature of the golfers priced this low. Walker ranks 14th in the field in SG:APP and has the 6th best sand save percentage. He makes for a great option if you are looking to fade An, Lovemark, Horschel or Leishman.

Automatic Fades

Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.

Bubba Watson – $8,200

Don’t buy into the narrative that Bubba is back. Ditching the pink ball is certainly a step in the right direction, but his T6 at the Memorial isn’t enough to get me back in on Bubba. He has a surprisingly terrible history in U.S. Opens. Since his T5 in 2007, he has missed four out of eight cuts and only has one top 30 finish. Bubba’s play this year has been brutal and I do not think he is going to find it at the toughest test in golf.

Rafa Cabrera Bello – $7,400

Cabrera Bello is a flashy name that will garner attention, especially since he is showing signs of solid form. He has two T4 finishes in his last three events, last week at the St. Jude and last month at the Players. He also squeezed in an ugly missed cut at the Memorial, a result we have become familiar seeing with RCB. His form so far this season is not where it needs to be, considering he has limited winning upside and his chance of missing the cut is larger than people realize. RCB has been gaining all his strokes with his putter, and ranks outside the top 60 in SG:OTT and SG:APP. He is too risky and likely too highly owned to be considered this week at Erin Hills.

Patrick Reed – $7,400

If you are going to be wild, at least be long. If you are going to be short, at least be accurate. Patrick Reed is neither of these things and that is why he will struggle at Erin Hills. He ranks outside of the top 60 in terms of driving distance and driving accuracy. Clubbing down to hit more fairways won’t be an option, so Reed will not be an option for me this week.

Daniel Summerhays – $7,100

Summerhays has both recent form and tournament history working in his favor this week that could have his ownership inflate slightly. Now, I highly doubt it exceeds 5%, but even that is too high for his price tag. Summerhays is very short off the tee and does not have the ball striking ability to make up for this lack of distance on his approaches. Dig a little deeper and find the better plays that surround Summerhays.

Bernd Wiesberger – $7,100

According to FanShareSports.com, Wiesberger is drawing a lot of attention this week. The term grinder is given to Bernd, mainly because he will par you to death and rarely makes birdies. That narrative would normally play out at previous U.S. Opens, but this year seems different and projected scores could approach -10. Bernd does not have the distance to take advantage of the four Par 5s. If he is going to be a chalky option in the low $7K range, I will gladly pivot elsewhere. We saw this at the Masters when Kisner and Hadwin were both cheap chalk. It paid off fading both of those guys then, and I think Bernd will fall into that category this week.

So, you got burned?

Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.

Jon Rahm – $10,300

I would be doing a disservice to write an entire article and not mention Jon Rahm. The last time we saw Rahm, prior to the Memorial, I bet he would have been everyone’s second favorite play this week next to DJ. One missed cut and a hot headed moment with fans at the Memorial, and people are jumping ship. He has the most “sit” tags on FanShareSports – that is absurd. This course is designed perfectly for Rahm, not to mention he is finally at an equal playing field and seeing the course for the first time like the rest of the field, unlike many other events he has played. Do not get cute or jump ship on Rahm. If he is on, like he usually is, we will see him in contention on Sunday.

I also have to throw in that I had a dream last night where I watched Rahm tee off on the first hole live at Erin Hills. He snap hooked one into the bush about 20 yards. Not sure if that is a sign of things to come or not. Hopefully not…

Adam Hadwin – $7,200

The flame has fizzled on Adam Hadwin. He was chalk at Augusta and now is being completely ignored. No doubt, his play has tailed off as of late, with a missed cut at the Memorial. But Hadwin is still a fantastic option due to his prowess on and around the greens. He is a world class putter and will be able to save a ton of pars if he happens to miss the green on his approach. His sand game will also play a huge role as these bunkers at Erin Hills look treacherous. Hadwin only has two tags on FanShareSports, so expect his ownership to sit below 3%.

Francesco Molinari – $7,000

Did Molinari burn people last week at the St. Jude? Not really, but he definitely didn’t win anyone money. He was a popular pick last week, finishing inside the top five in tags on FanShareSports. Once again, he is being mentioned a fair amount, but I do not think the random public DFS player has any intention of rostering Molinari this week. The talk of the week has been the length of Erin Hills. Moli is not a long hitter but he is accurate and should be able to flip wedges close on these Par 5s. He has been extremely consistent the last month or two, and makes for a great cash play. Don’t overlook Molinari because he didn’t win you a GPP last week.

Thanks for reading The U.S. Open preview article! You can follow me on Twitter for more golf and betting talk! Also, make sure you check out @FanShareSports. They track and curate content produced across the DFS Golf industry, and highlight which players are being tagged or talked about the most, translating to an excellent ownership guide.

Good luck this week everybody and enjoy The U.S. Open!!!

The U.S. Open, “The Charts” – DraftKings

The U.S. Open, “The Charts” – DraftKings

Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.

Salary Vs. Vegas Odds

While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. This week we find one of the most overlooked golfers on the week showing up (as he should) on the Odds vs. Salary charts. Billy Horschel is only four weeks removed from winning the AT&T Byron Nelson and is coming off of a fourth place finish at the St. Jude last week. What’s not to like about a guy who is near the minimum price, has never finished worse than 32nd at a U.S. Open, and has nearly 80:1 odds to win? The next guy who is as much a standout as Horschel was based on his odds and salary, is Martin Kaymer. Contrary to Horschel though, Kaymer is coming in playing one of the worst stretches of golf we’ve seen from this international superstar. With roughly 60:1 odds to win and a $7,000 price tag, Kaymer’s poor recent form may be worth overlooking in order to take a flyer on a golfer who Vegas believes has some upside in GPPs.

Click To Enlarge!

Salary Vs. Ownership Projections

For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. As you may have already been able to tell, the ownership numbers for this chart were adjusted once already since the salaries are out, and the result is fairly polarizing. You will find golfers like Rory McIlroy who just isn’t being talked up at all (perhaps as a result of having played only twice in the last twelve weeks). On the contrary we have Rickie Fowler and Kevin Kisner who are both rapidly becoming the chalk this week. Kisner’s all around game is something I’m seeking at a course like Erin Hills so I’m willing to eat the chalk there, however Rickie Fowler leaves me a bit more hesitant. As a golfer who has certainly had his fair share of success this year, Fowler has also found trouble regularly which is most likely going to lead to some punishing results this week. As for low ownership, Henrik Stenson is a pretty safe bet as the lowest owned golfer at the top end of the slate. He comes in with some decent performances overseas recently, however I still find myself leaning towards fading Stenson. Henrik over the course of the last season has had some struggled on seriously difficult courses, and Erin Hills certainly fits the mold.

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Salary Vs. OWGR

Do you wonder how quickly the salaries are adjusted as a result of player’s performance? Ever wonder if there are players who’s prices don’t reflect their overall skill? These are questions you should be asking every week if you are serious about DFS, and now you can get the answer in one easy chart. I suspect before reading this article you’ve probably taken the time to browse the list of golfers and salaries at this point, and I equally suspect you’ve glanced past the first golfer I’ll mention here without a second thought. Danny Willett is currently ranked 28th in the OWGR and has nearly 250:1 odds to win the tournament. It’s been a long downhill slippery slope of bad results for Danny Willett as of late including a WD from The Players Championship recently. I won’t advocate taking a second mortgage to put it all on Willett to win this week, however I think a golfer of this caliber is certainly worth a second look given his price. The other golfer is one that you will have heard me mention (probably hundreds of times) before if you’ve been following my work closely. Somehow nobody seems to have adjusted to the fact that Francesco Molinari has risen all the way to 16th ranked in the OWGR, and yet he is only $7,000 in price. Why people have not begun to join me in piling ‘$Molinari’ (pronounced Money Molinari) into everything just yes has continued to astound me. He’s making cuts with some serious consistency and is showing upside with that consistency we’re not used to seeing out of Molinari on American soil, yet his price continues to stay consistently low, and I continue to reap the benefits….and you should too.

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U.S. Open Research Spreadsheet

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Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.

PGA U.S. Open Research Spreadsheet

PGA U.S. Open Research Spreadsheet

U.S. Open Research

Defending Champ, Dustin Johnson, will head to Erin, Wisconsin to defend his title. This week’s Research Spreadsheet includes:

*NEW* Key Stats – Breakdown and ranking of “Key Stats” for the this tournament, with new scoring system.
*NEW* Last Week – A transparent look into the Key Stats for last week and how the player’s finished.
Past Performances – How players have fared at this tournament in the past, broken down by year (since 1986)
Historic Performances – How players have fared at this tournament in the past, by totals (since inception – min three appearances)
Recent Performance- Full stats for the L5 years at this tournament and L10 weeks on TOUR.
Full Box Scores – All final performance stats for years 2016, 2015 and 2014.
Betting Odds – Odds for each player to win and top 10
DraftKings Salaries, Fanduel Salaries, FantasyDraft Salaries

Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, get started below:

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