Valero Texas Open, “The Charts” – DraftKings

Valero Texas Open, “The Charts” – DraftKings

Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.

Salary Vs. Vegas Odds

While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. This week we find a standout in a golfer who I have been very intrigued by over the last few weeks.

A staple on the Latin American tour Rafael Campos has made over $100,000 in each of the past two seasons in only two events on the PGA Tour. Campos is quickly raising my eyebrows this year however as he continues to make cuts in a string of gutsy performances. His 100:1 odds at only $6,200 makes him one of the biggest standouts in value we’ve seen this season. I am not 100% sold on Campos, but clearly he can play on the big stage and has shown oddly consistent upside which makes him perfect for GPPs. The only other true standout is Daniel Summerhays who comes in with a lack of strong finishes recently, however has some of the best course history in the field. Summerhays hasn’t finished outside the top 30 at this event in five years and as such probably serves as both a GPP and Cash consideration.

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Salary Vs. Ownership Projections

For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information.

While it’s still early, this week Patrick Reed looks to be a good candidate if you’re looking for low ownership. While it’s clear he isn’t playing great now, his price has continued to drop and at some point you can expect Patrick Reed to bounce back. If he’s going to come at a discount and low ownership that makes him a phenomenal GPP consideration. The only other notable worth mentioning at this point is Chris Kirk which comes as no surprise given he hasn’t finished better than 39th in nearly three months, however it is worth mentioning that his last two appearances have resulted in 13th and 8th place finishes.

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Salary Vs. OWGR

Do you wonder how quickly the salaries are adjusted as a result of player’s performance? Ever wonder if there are players who’s prices don’t reflect their overall skill? These are questions you should be asking every week if you are serious about DFS, and now you can get the answer in one easy chart.

This week is very interesting as Roberto Castro stands out in a massive way in value based on the OWGR. Castro is 88th ranked in the world and comes in at a serious discount at nearly the minimum salary. I won’t be touching Castro in cash game formats but based on talent and price alone I feel compelled to ignore his recent form a bit and take a small percentage of him in my lineups. The other standout comes in Ryo Ishikawa however I will be steering clear of Ishikawa who has recent form that even I can’t ignore.

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Valero Texas Open Research Spreadsheet

Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:

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Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.

PGA Valero Texas Open Research Spreadsheet – DraftKings

PGA Valero Texas Open Research Spreadsheet – DraftKings

Valero Texas Open

Defending Champ, Charley Hoffman, will head back to San Antonio, TX to defend his title. This week’s Research Spreadsheet includes:

*NEW* Key Stats – Breakdown and ranking of “Key Stats” for the this tournament, with new scoring system.
Past Performances – How players have fared at this tournament in the past, broken down by year (since 1986)
Historic Performances – How players have fared at this tournament in the past, by totals (since inception – min three appearances)
Recent Performance- Full stats for the L5 years at this tournament and L10 weeks on TOUR.
Full Box Scores – All final performance stats for years 2016, 2015 and 2014.
Betting Odds – Odds for each player to win and top 10
DraftKings Salaries 

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2017 MLB Player Scoring Calendar

2017 MLB Player Scoring Calendar

Introducing the MLB Player Scoring Calendar! This is something I think will be really cool for the MLB season. It’s a visual representation of the Game Logs Database. It will allow you to easily scroll through and find out which players have been scoring well lately, as opposed to over the course of the entire season. Here’s a screenshot of it looks like:

There are two ways to view the Player Calendar:

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The RBC Heritage, “The Charts” – DraftKings

The RBC Heritage, “The Charts” – DraftKings

Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.

Salary Vs. Vegas Odds

While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. I am extremely pleased to say that this week one of my favorites over the past few months is one of the most obvious standouts on the Salary Vs. Vegas Odds chart we’ve seen all season. This week brings us a couple of very interesting potential value spots, the first of which is Danny Lee who was completely off my radar until now. After a closer look Danny Lee has three top twenty-five finishes in his last four events. He doesn’t exactly shout “upside” but is certainly worth a small bit of exposure in GPPs in a weaker field this week. The other standout when comparing Vegas odds is Dominic Bozzelli who has roughly 130:1 odds to win and is near the minimum salary. I won’t be going overboard on Bozzelli but definitely will be taking a shot on him as a flier.

Click To Enlarge!

Salary Vs. Ownership Projections

For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. This week is a bit tough given the week field, which ordinarily comes with ownership that is a bit more clustered on a few golfers more so than usual. Given that it’s early in the week it’s tough to know for sure who those players will be, but early on it seems Tyrrell Hatton may be a candidate for low ownership. With nearly 30% ownership during the masters where he missed the cut I expect most to have an ugly pit in their stomach at the mention of Hatton, which means one of the strongest players in the field is going to be low owned and under priced: Sign me up!

Click To Enlarge!

Salary Vs. OWGR

Do you wonder how quickly the salaries are adjusted as a result of player’s performance? Ever wonder if there are players who’s prices don’t reflect their overall skill? These are questions you should be asking every week if you are serious about DFS, and now you can get the answer in one easy chart.

What an interesting chart this week when comparing Salary Vs. OWGR. The weak field in this event really shows, however there are some really interesting potential values this week. the biggest standout at this point is Danny Willett who is just north of $7,000, yet is the 17th ranked golfer in the world. This marks one of the largest skill vs salary differentials we’ve seen, largely due to Willett’s poor form entering the tournament. The alternative is Russel Henley who is one of the highest priced golfers in the field, yet is only the 61st ranked golfer in the world. My suggestion is don’t over react to Henley’s recent form and adjust accordingly.

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RBC Heritage Research Spreadsheet

Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:

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download-sheet

Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.

PGA RBC Heritage Research Spreadsheet – DraftKings

PGA RBC Heritage Research Spreadsheet – DraftKings

RBC Heritage Research

Defending Champ, Branden Grace, will head back to Hilton Head, SC to defend his title. This week’s Research Spreadsheet includes:

*NEW* Key Stats – Breakdown and ranking of “Key Stats” for the this tournament, with new scoring system.
Past Performances – How players have fared at this tournament in the past, broken down by year (since 1986)
Historic Performances – How players have fared at this tournament in the past, by totals (since inception – min three appearances)
Recent Performance- Full stats for the L5 years at this tournament and L10 weeks on TOUR.
Full Box Scores – All final performance stats for years 2016, 2015 and 2014.
Betting Odds – Odds for each player to win and top 10
DraftKings Salaries 

Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, get started below:

  • All Sports

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2017 MLB Game Logs

2017 MLB Game Logs

A running compilation of game logs for the 2017 MLB season. They include every game, started by every player. These are the complete box scores, along with DraftKings/Fanduel scoring and Las Vegas lines. For the first time, these will also include DraftKings and Fanduel salaries (when available). They are perfect for back-testing theories, creating projections or anything else you can possibly think of. They are in CSV format for easy manipulation. Here’s a screenshot of what they look like:

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