What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! THE ONE WEEK I DON”T MENTION HUDSON SWAFFORD HE WINS!!! Good for him though – he was due for a victory with all those cuts he has been making. I hope everyone had a profitable CareerBuilder Challenge and now are ready to turn the page.
It’s Tiger Woods week!!! I’m sure you are well aware that Tiger is in the field and is ready to start playing a consistent schedule of golf again. I think it is great his return is great as it can only improve DFS Golf and get more people playing each week. Tiger and the guys are heading to Torrey Pines just outside of San Diego where they will play both courses the facility has to offer. The North and South courses will be played once by each golfer on Thursday and Friday, before they head to the South course for the weekend. Both courses are Par 72s, but the South Course will play much longer and harder at 7,698 yards compared to the North at 7,258. Distance off the tee will be important, as long as long approach shots, Par 5 scoring and birdie or better percentage. There are a lot of golfers who have tremendous course history here, with multiple high finishes in recent years. We are no longer going to see the scores we have seen the past couple weeks, as the PGA pros finally have some tracks that will test all aspects of their game. The winning score will likely be in the mid-teens, and don’t expect anymore 59s.
Alright, let’s get to the picks!
My Staples
My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.
Dustin Johnson – $11,100
The big decision this week will be which big name at the top should you go overweight on. For me, it’s Dustin Johnson. We all know the golfer that DJ is, his skill set and what makes him so special. This week it is more about how much confidence I have in the golfer I am going to spend over $11,000 on. Jason Day scares me a bit due to his inconsistency off the tee that he seems to have just recently developed. I am also scared that the incredible run Hideki Matsuyama has been on is coming to an end, as we saw his putter go cold at the Sony Open. DJ finished T18 here last year in some brutal conditions, and already has two top six finishes in this young season. He is travelling from Abu Dahbi to play in this event, but it doesn’t scare me enough to avoid DJ. He is the safest pick on the board, and is easy to roster in cash lineups due to the salary savings other golfers will provide.
Shane Lowry – $9,000
The big Irishman makes My Staples this week as a guy who has shown tremendous results at this event in the past and will likely go overlooked due to his price. Lowry has great length of the tee and has shown the ability to play in windy conditions, which is the exact make up that this course requires when the winds pick up. He finished T13 here last season and T6 back in 2015, so he clearly has top 15 upside and could easily contend again this week. He hasn’t played in a tournament this calendar year, but a similar break didn’t affect him last year either. He is priced at a very awkward range, as many DFSers will opt for two higher priced players rather than spend around the average salary. Lowry is a good bet to come out of nowhere this week and be in contention come Sunday.
J.B. Holmes – $8,200
J.B. Holmes is a lot like Shane Lowry this week, as they have similar games, course history and recent form. But unlike Lowry, Holmes hits the ball a mile and can make more birdies than anyone when he gets hot. He is prone to the odd big number, but J.B.’s price tag this week is well worth the risk. He has back to back top six finishes at Torrey Pines, so he has been knocking at the door of a victory at this event. This week, a lot of attention will be paid to guys who have been in competing in the the last couple of tournaments, placing players like Holmes away from the spotlight. Don’t be gun-shy to roster Holmes this week. I could easily see him lifting the trophy when all is said and done.
Charles Howell III – $7,300
Chucky three sticks could be the biggest free square in DraftKings golf history. The price on Charles Howell III makes absolutely no sense. His current form impeccable. He has five straight top 15s, two of which are top 10s. He has finished 16th or better in three of his last five appearances at this tournament, and has made the cut 12 consecutive times at this event. The one downside to Howell is that he can never seem to win an event, but that does not matter when he is only $7,300. He is a lock to make the cut and will be in position to record another top-15 finish. Howell loves west coast golf – don’t get cute and avoid him this week.
Automatic Fades
Bad course fit? Terrible recent form? Players I will have no share of.
Phil Mickelson – $10,000
In a tournament full of big names, Phil Mickelson still draws a ton of attention and will likely be more owned than he should be this week. Lefty surprised a lot of people last week with his performance at the CareerBuilder, as he got out of the gate hot and showed his injury is not longer an issue. However, Phil only hit 55% of fairways and managed to reach the green in regulation only 58% of the time. He clearly didn’t hit the ball as well as his results showed. I am not buying into Phil this week at an inflated price and an ownership I suspect will be higher than he deserves.
Rickie Fowler – $9,700
Rickie Fowler is another golfer I will have no shares of this week and feel completely comfortable with. Fowler is coming off of a disappoint 2016 season, where he recorded no wins on the PGA Tour and only nine top 10s. He hasn’t shown recent success at this tournament either, missing two cuts and a T61 finish in his last three trips. Rickie also played in the Abu Dahbi HSBC Championship last weekend, and that long flight home halfway around the world certainly cannot be a positive. He will not make it into any of my GPP lineups this week as I find myself rostering all of the golfers priced around Fowler instead.
So you got burned?
Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.
Jamie Lovemark – $7,700
It is alarming how poorly the chalk picks have been performing so far in this young season. Jimmy Walker, Brandt Snedeker and Paul Casey were all popular picks that missed the cut and now we can add Jamie Lovemark to that list. Lovemark disappointed a lot of people last week across all golf betting formats, and that won’t be forgotten. However, Lovemark fits these courses extremely well and is primed for a solid bounce back. He has made his last two cuts at this event and is one week removed from back to back top six results. He is long enough to get around both Torrey Pines courses and will certainly be more overlooked on DraftKings than is warranted.
Luke List $7,200
Luke List finds himself in a very similar situation to Lovemark this week, except he didn’t implode as much at the CareerBuilder. His string of top-15 finishes was snapped with a mediocre T41 last week. He was a popular pick in one-and-done contests, so his low pay day will leave some golf fans sour. List comes it at a very reasonable price, $1,400 cheaper than last week. He crushes the ball off the tee and dominates Par 5s – both are attributes that will be crucial this week at Torrey Pines.
Perfect Pivots
Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.
Daniel Berger – $8,800
Daniel Berger has quietly become a cut making monster, as he currently has the second longest active streak at 21 consecutive made cuts. The reason why he shows up in the perfect pivot department…Gary Woodland. Woodland is priced $200 cheaper than Berger and is currently the second most tagged golfer on FanShareSports.com. Woodland has obvious skills that suit theses courses well, but Berger is no slouch in a lot of the key stats either. Although he isn’t viewed a bomber, Berger has plenty of length and great proximity stats that will provide plenty of birdie opportunities this week. Fading the chalk has been the play so far this season, so pivoting to Berger could pay off in a big way.
Grayson Murray – $6,200
Grayson Murray comes in criminally underpriced this week for the caliber of player he is and the recent form he has shown. Murray is a pure bomber, and leads the field in driving distance based on both 2016 and 2017 stats. He also has show the ability to make a ton of birdies, while avoiding bogies at the same time. The chalk play priced around Murray we are pivoting away from is Marin Laird. Laird is the most tagged golfer according to the team over @FanShareSports, leading the way with 20 mentions already in this short week. Murray offers $300 is savings off of Laird and will be much lower owned in GPPs. There is a good chance we see Murray finish inside the top-10 this week.
“The Price is Wrong, Bob!”
The pricing on these golfers just doesn’t make sense.
Charley Hoffman – $7,800
We finally get to witness a strong field event, yet Charley Hoffman is still priced at $7,800. It wouldn’t have shocked me to see him come in priced under $7K this week, so to see him priced right below Tiger Woods and just above Tony Finau is shocking. I can’t see Hoffman’s ownership reach 5% across GPPs this week and with good reason. His recent form is very suspect, with three missed cuts in four events. He does have a T7 under his belt at this event, but his other recent results have been less than stellar. He is an avoid for me this week.
Martin Laird – $6,500
Who fell asleep at the wheel this week on the DraftKings pricing team? Martin Laird is usually a guy that barely anyone talks about or mentions before a golf tournament, but his incredibly low price does not match his betting odds, recent form or course history. The DraftKings salaries were released much early than normal this week, so there are a few players whose price tag doesn’t quite line up, but Laird is by far the most noticeable. He has back-to-back top 10 finishes at this event, and his recent form is trending up with at 27th, 13th, and 9th place finish in his last three results. There is a good reason he is the most tagged golfer on FanShareSports.com. He will be highly owned in all contests this week, but is still a must play in cash games.
Thanks for checking out my Farmers Insurance Open preview article! Be sure to follow me on Twitter @EPattersonFS. Also, check out @FanShareSports as they curate content from all across the DFS Golf industry, breaking down players that are being mentioned the most and identifying golfers who will be popular that week.
Good luck this week everybody!