Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. This week we find a standout in a golfer who I have been very intrigued by over the last few weeks.
A staple on the Latin American tour Rafael Campos has made over $100,000 in each of the past two seasons in only two events on the PGA Tour. Campos is quickly raising my eyebrows this year however as he continues to make cuts in a string of gutsy performances. His 100:1 odds at only $6,200 makes him one of the biggest standouts in value we’ve seen this season. I am not 100% sold on Campos, but clearly he can play on the big stage and has shown oddly consistent upside which makes him perfect for GPPs. The only other true standout is Daniel Summerhays who comes in with a lack of strong finishes recently, however has some of the best course history in the field. Summerhays hasn’t finished outside the top 30 at this event in five years and as such probably serves as both a GPP and Cash consideration.
Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information.
While it’s still early, this week Patrick Reed looks to be a good candidate if you’re looking for low ownership. While it’s clear he isn’t playing great now, his price has continued to drop and at some point you can expect Patrick Reed to bounce back. If he’s going to come at a discount and low ownership that makes him a phenomenal GPP consideration. The only other notable worth mentioning at this point is Chris Kirk which comes as no surprise given he hasn’t finished better than 39th in nearly three months, however it is worth mentioning that his last two appearances have resulted in 13th and 8th place finishes.
Salary Vs. OWGR
Do you wonder how quickly the salaries are adjusted as a result of player’s performance? Ever wonder if there are players who’s prices don’t reflect their overall skill? These are questions you should be asking every week if you are serious about DFS, and now you can get the answer in one easy chart.
This week is very interesting as Roberto Castro stands out in a massive way in value based on the OWGR. Castro is 88th ranked in the world and comes in at a serious discount at nearly the minimum salary. I won’t be touching Castro in cash game formats but based on talent and price alone I feel compelled to ignore his recent form a bit and take a small percentage of him in my lineups. The other standout comes in Ryo Ishikawa however I will be steering clear of Ishikawa who has recent form that even I can’t ignore.
Valero Texas Open Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.